Five Star Follies: Part II

Rivals.com recently released an article detailing the careers of the high school football recruits they designated as five star players over the last five years. Here is our continuing analysis of that data...

In the first part of our series of articles that examined the last five years of highly-rated, five star high school football players we painted the big picture for you as to their rates of success and failure over that period of time.

In case you missed it here is a quick recap of what our initial analysis found:

• Between 2007 and 2011 a small and select group of only 144 players received the five star rating from Rivals.com.
• The 2009 class was the largest with 33 players making the five star list. The 2010 and 2011 classes were the smallest with only 26 players on the list. In 2008 there were 30 players that received the five star label while in 2007 there were 29.
• Out of the 100,000 or so high school football players in the U.S. in any given year only 28 players earned the five star designation on average per year over the five year period.
• Out of the 144 players designated as five star studs only 36 players or about about 25% went on to become what we consider to be stars or impact players at the college level.
• Approximately 108 players or about 75% of the five star recruits over the five year period were just solid, decent or average players who did not have a major impact on their teams success.
• As of last count at least 19 players (13%) transferred from the original school they signed a LOI with on National Signing Day (will likely increase with the 2011 class in future years).
• We determined that about 18 players (13%) suffered major injuries that had a significant negative impact on their careers.

Today we will begin our look at the individual classes with a closer inspection of the 2007 class. We will look at the specific players who went on to be stars, the players who transferred to other schools and players who suffered major injuries that directly impacted their performance on the field.

Rivals Class of 2007 Five Star Player Quick Facts:

• Total Players: 29
• Number of Impact players: 8
• Percentage of Impact Players: 28%
• Number of Players Who Transferred: 3
• Number of Injured Players: 4

The impact players and their rankings from the 2007 class were:

• (1) QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame;
• (2) RB Joe McKnight, USC;
• (3) Safety Eric Berry, Tennessee;
• (4) QB Ryan Mallet, Michigan/Arkansas;
• (7) DT Marvin Austin, North Carolina;
• (24) WR Arrelious Benn, Illinois;
• (27) QB Tyrod Taylor, VT;
• (28) QB Cam Newton, UF/Auburn.

The players who transferred from their original LOI to another school:

• (4) QB Ryan Mallet (from Michigan to Arkansas)
• (9) Torrey Davis (from Florida to FCS school Jacksonville State)
• (28) QB Cam Newton (from Florida to Auburn)

The players who were impacted by major injuries:

• OT Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin
• OG James Wilson, Florida
• OL Trey Allen, Texas
• LB Chris Donald, Tennessee

In general the 2007 class was slightly above average in terms of impact players (8) which may have been a result of our being a bit generous (understatement?) with of some of our selections.

The class was actually below average in the number of transfers (3) and also below average in players who were impacted by injury (4) who were mostly offensive lineman.

Tomorrow we will look at the 30 player, star-studded 2008 class that had the most impact players of any of the five years between 2007 and 2011 according to our internal evaluations.

Comments

[RCCF]

First Again....need a 2012 shirt

[SOUP]

RCCF...as the founder and original 12% U get a Canespace shirt for LIFE! Working on the new design now for 2012. More to follow...

[j.w.]

Top 3!

[canesteeler]

Interesting article.

[roachcane77]

WOW... NICE RESEARCH!

Somebody's doing some major homework!

Speaking of homework... between my classes, and tennis tryouts... I haven't had a chance to read my AG books. About 1/3 through the 5 Dysfunctions book... (to this point, only would give it a so-so rating.) Hopefully will get to finish it this weekend.

[SOUP]

WOW... NICE RESEARCH!

Somebody's doing some major homework!

Posted by: roachcane77 | January 21, 2012 at 12:22 PM

For some reason this REALLY interested me so I dug in deep with both hands. Thanks for the compliment!

[Old Skool]

From an article in the NYTimes magazine
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/education/edlife/how-big-time-sports-ate-college-life.html?pagewanted=2&hp

“Here is evidence that suggests that when your football team does well, grades suffer,” said Dr. Waddell, who compared transcripts of over 29,700 students from 1999 to 2007 against Oregon’s win-loss record. For every three games won, grade-point average for men dropped 0.02, widening the G.P.A. gender gap by 9 percent. Women’s grades didn’t suffer. In a separate survey of 183 students, the success of the Ducks also seemed to cause slacking off: students reported studying less (24 percent of men, 9 percent of women), consuming more alcohol (28 percent, 20 percent) and partying more (47 percent, 28 percent).

[Ohio_Cane]

Well done again, SOUP! Very nice article and well researched.

[SOUP]

Ohio...check email.

[SOUP]

Ohio, UMike and Hassan...we need to talk about NSD on 2/1/12. I want to divide up or assign duties for that day so we can be as efficient and effective as possible.

One person needs to follow the UM website at www.hurricanesports.com.

One person needs to follow Twitter.

One person needs to follow Canesport(Rivals), ITU (ESPN) and Canestime (Scout).

One person needs to follow the Miami Herald, the Sun Sentinel and the Palm Beach Post.

I am going to be home in the morning from 6 AM to 11 AM so I can do whichever one nobody else wants to do.

I think Hassan is the only perosn who has active pay accounts at Rivals and Scout or ITU.

I am going to leave at 11 AM after most of the action to drive down to Miami for the NSD event at UM from 6-8 PM to take photos and do some interviews then go to the UM basketball game vs MD at 8 PM.

I'll post that on Thursday AM.

[UMike]

SOUP...I will be in school from 10 - to 2:30..i can try to jump in after that or whatever i can in the morning lol

[Six]

In the spirit of the game got question for you. In the 4th game of the 1971 world series ( # 398 ) what event occured on the first pitch and who was the Pirate pitcher,
what happened to the ball?
answer will be posted 4 PM today.
Tired of the recruiting speculation FEB 1 cant get here fast enough.
Jean & Fran

Posted by: Fran | January 21, 2012 at 07:54 AM

Ah Fran, I had to do some serious thinking on this one. I do know that it was the Pirates vs. the Orioles and I think that was the first night game in World Series history? I do not remember the pitcher though

I think I remember that from watching some baseball documentaries on PBS

Rays signed Luke Scott - which is odd that they got another semi-local type kid. Last year it was Damon who went to Dr. Phillips

This year it's Luke Scott, who was born in DeLeon Springs and went to DeLand High .. my family is in DeLeon Springs and I basically grew up in DeLand

Rays also got Carlos Pena back. Sucks b/c that means my boy Casey Kotchman (local Tampa kid) is out. Los is a great clubhouse guy, was with the Rays during the playoff runs/World Series year ... but the guy strikes out like he's swinging a car antenna up at the plate

Loved Kotch b/c he can hit to all fields and is statistically the best fielding 1Basemen in MLB history

Spring Training can't get here fast enough. Already went to some of the Rays prospects workouts at Tropicana Field

Let me know if you and Jean are going to roll down to Bradenton to see the Buccos or somewhere closer to where the Buccos are playing possibly

I know they're playing the Astros in Kissimmee on Sunday, March 25th at 1:05. That's probably the closest they'll be to you

[Hassan]

Sounds good bro. I got active accounts on both itu and canesport

I can watch twitter too call me

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

One person needs to follow Canesport(Rivals), ITU (ESPN) and Canestime (Scout).

Soup, forgive me for this non-sense correction, but i thought itu is owned by 24/7 sports now?

[orange 'n green in the vein]

(1) QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame;
(2) RB Joe McKnight, USC;
(3) Safety Eric Berry, Tennessee;
(4) QB Ryan Mallet, Michigan/Arkansas;
(7) DT Marvin Austin, North Carolina;
(24) WR Arrelious Benn, Illinois;
(27) QB Tyrod Taylor, VT;
(28) QB Cam Newton, UF/Auburn.

1), 2), 7), 24), 27), could all be argued as being given too much credit, not trying to be an SEC aristocrat by any means but only one guy on that list has a national championship ring. You can make a decent case that Austin had more impact off the field by uncorking the Chimera of recent NCAA-wide cheating scandals than he ever had on the field at UNC. Clausen's a punchline of the Jabba the Weiss era at Lame, McKnight was a decent offensive player in a bad defensive league who never took his team to the promised land and in fact saw them submerge during his time there from where they were when he signed, Benn was a good player on a bad to middling team but I think he actually played in a Rose Bowl that he shouldn't have during his time and Taylor . . . oh I forgot, the standard bearer institution. Nice empty trophy case standard bearer. Is he even in the NFL still or did he not even get there in the first place?

Interesting blog though SOUP and it puts the recruitnik 24/7/365 mentality in perspective of just how futile it is to obsess over signing day this year. If anything, obsess over the 2009/08 signing day instead, it's much more important to this year on the field.

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

I am going to leave at 11 AM after most of the action to drive down to Miami for the NSD event at UM from 6-8 PM to take photos and do some interviews then go to the UM basketball game vs MD at 8 PM.

I'll post that on Thursday AM.

Posted by: SOUP | January 21, 2012 at 01:38 PM

This!

I will be here for sure and watch that hoops game!

[Fran]

Six ..... it was the first night game ...the pitcher was Luke Walker ( I don't even remember him at all )The ball was taken out of the game and given to Commissioner Buie Kuhn to be enshrined in the HOF.
I looked at Pirates Spring training sched. They play at Trop on March 11 that may be our chance right there. My Carido Dr is insisting no knees replaced for at least 4-5 months too many surgeries too soon.

[SOUP]

Soup, forgive me for this non-sense correction, but i thought itu is owned by 24/7 sports now?

Posted by: Sean Spence is a Beast!!! | January 21, 2012 at 03:02 PM

They are part of the 24/7 Network but I think that entire thing is connected to or underwritten by ESPN?

[SOUP]

Interesting blog though SOUP and it puts the recruitnik 24/7/365 mentality in perspective of just how futile it is to obsess over signing day this year.

Posted by: orange 'n green in the vein | January 21, 2012 at 03:02 PM

I agree with your assessment and as I indicated in the article I was being VERY generous with some of those "impact players".

The ones I picked are names everyone has heard of, made an impoact on their teams and are also all in the NFLU but to varying degrees of success.

Just throwing darts ova heya!

[Fran]

soup
If you have it can you pass on my email address to Six I don't want to do too many off topic messages here.
Fran

[Ohio_Cane]

East/West Shrine Game starts now on NFL Network

[WindyCane-Forecast1]

Ran into Duke Johnson again recently. I saw him play during the season and the playoffs. Duke is not very big, but Duke has the heart of a lion and a bunch of talent. Duke is the best High School RB I have seen play in a long time, he is a likeable kid and he will play for UM immediately.

Darius White, the Manatee LB, is good. I hope we can keep Northrup, too, because even with Cookie coming back, LB is a critical position of need for the Canes. The State of Florida had a thin LB class this year, so if UM can get Northrup, White, along with Whitt, Kirby and some of the other DE/LBs in this class, this could be a very good LB class for Golden to begin building his true 3-4 defense.

Byrd was a solid WR, and the coaches always said he had NFL-type talent. His problem was that he played behind three better playmakers - Benjamin (one of the fastest players in college football) and Streeter (a potential 2nd round pick) and Hurns (better routes, blocker, hands, speed than Byrd).

Also, Byrd did not have a good QB throwing him the ball here at UM. When I attended UM games and could see the entire field, it really struck me that Jacory is not very talented. Jacory (Kiper's No. 22 rated QB prospect) eliminated the mistakes under the tutelage of Jedd Fisch, but Jacory did not make (or attempt) a lot of throws that a better college QB would have. Jacory really lacks a real major college arm, and he lacked the ability to look off safeties and LBs.

I think UM will improve dramatically in the post-Jacory era. Jacory was not a good leader on or off the field, and he also lacked real athletic talent. Its time for the Canes to return to that era when they were known as QB-U. The post-Jacory QBs appear to be a better group than what they have had in the last 5-7 years.

Golden's Canes will surprise some people this year.

[mi@mic@ne]

Chase Ford sets up the touchdown.. 66 yrd reception down the middle in traffic.. this qb has the big arm

[TJL]

Chase Ford just made a heckava play

[UMike]

Upon Further Review -

There's already been 9 arrests in the Will Muschamp era at Florida. What happened to the "Florida Way"? http://fb.me/KAJcG9Zo

[UMike]

Phillip Dorsett - Let's go Chase!

Cane's family showing love..also Dorsett looks big in his twitter pic, he isnt missing to many work outs lol

[Ohio_Cane]

Byrd with a TD then throws up the U!

[Ohio_Cane]

Reports going around that JoePa is near death and family is summoning close friends to say final goodbyes. Wow, that quick after being fired. Kinda creepy

[Ohio_Cane]

Kristen Kenney reporting Goldman to UM is done. Says he's focusing on Bama, Auburn and FSWhoo

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

Byrd with a TD then throws up the U!

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 21, 2012 at 05:19 PM

With the rest of the Canes gang, very nice to see! Love that they're proud of their canes roots regardless of how they performed throughout their career here.

[Old Skool]

Espn saying Joe Pa's in serious condition with complications from his lung cancer

[Ohio_Cane]

Old Skool, just tried to post that about 20 mins ago and Typepad ate it apparently. Lol

Kinda creepy it's this close to when he was fired. Weird

[Ohio_Cane]

^^ Oh, it didnt eat it, it's there now. Weird

[SOUP]

If you have it can you pass on my email address to Six I don't want to do too many off topic messages here.

Posted by: Fran | January 21, 2012 at 03:47 PM

Fran...right about now OFF topic comments are no big deal. And as long as they are sports related (baseball included) and trivia centered then I have no issue with that at all.

Plus Six changes his email addy more often than you change...well U know. I'll check and see what I have and try to make the connection but just to be sure in the meantime just email yours at:

canespace86@aol.com

BTW...I would love to see U and Jean at a Spring training game in Orlando (Braves play @ Disney) or Tigers in Lakeland.

[SOUP]

Kristen Kenney reporting Goldman to UM is done. Says he's focusing on Bama, Auburn and FSWhoo

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 21, 2012 at 06:27 PM

And after having read the email I sent U today why do U think that is?

I'll give U ONE guess!

[SOUP]

also Dorsett looks big in his twitter pic, he isnt missing to many work outs lol

Posted by: UMike | January 21, 2012 at 05:12 PM

According to Da Skreetz Mr. Dorsett is one of the TOP 10 weight room junkies.

[Ohio_Cane]

And after having read the email I sent U today why do U think that is?

I'll give U ONE guess!

Posted by: SOUP | January 21, 2012 at 07:10 PM
------------------------------------------

That's my work email. Can't check it from home so I haven't seen it yet

[Ohio_Cane]

Also SOUP, I followed ALL of those last year (Twitter, UM coverage, ITU, Rivals, etc) so in good with whatever I'm assigned. I don't have an account with any pay sites so someone who does can do that.

[CaneFan47]

Watching the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl All Star game where we have Futch, Washington, Johnson and Jacory. Most all of the players have logo stickers from different schools besides their own on their helmets except for the Miami players, which I took some pride in for some reason. Then I saw Jacory and he has a big Nebraska N on one side of his helmet in place of The []_[]. SMH.

I know its not that big a deal but it still bothered me.

[4-Real]

Share the Goldman newz guys.Not cool 2 keep secrets from U family :(

[Ohio_Cane]

4-Real, I said about a month ago Goldman wasn't coming to Miami. I don't know what the new email says yet, but it may be something new? Other than the fact that he's going to Bama?

PS - Typepad not letting me sign in. Saying Canespace isn't registered

[86Cane]

Ohio...I just signed in no problem? Close and reopen your browser OR restart you 'puter and see what happens?

[86Cane]

Share the Goldman newz guys.Not cool 2 keep secrets from U family :(

Posted by: 4-Real | January 21, 2012 at 08:21 PM

U CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!

According to several sources...IF Goldman goes to Bama he, his family and his HS coach will get EXTRA benefits.

IF he allegedly has his hand out for $$$ there is NO CHANCE he winds up at UM.

IF he allegedly is playing the other schools for what they are worth and goes there then U know what's up.

IF he decides on UM on NSD then he is gonna be a modern day HERO for turning down the $$$ and signing with an institution of higher education.

[Ohio_Cane]

SOUP, got it. Restarted my phone. Thanks!

[DrewZ2]

ah Soup you beat me to it. I also heard that Goldman had his hand out during the recruiting contest but Golden wasn't having any of it. The SEC has shady business going on and everyone knows about it except the NCAA apparently.

On another conspiricy note; the NCAA kept this pretty quiet but it is now against NCAA rules for a parent to act as an agent...ala Cam Newton. So its ok for Cam Newton and Auburn to do it but now after he's gone we'll make it illegal...sketchy

[SOUP]

SOUP, got it. Restarted my phone. Thanks!

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 21, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Remember that for NSD...it's gonna get crazy up in here!

[Six]

Will find out about Avery Young soon hopefully

Co-worker/good friend of mine is real good friends with his head coach. Said that it was between UiF/Auburn/UGA ... he had to tell Nick Saban on the phone that Avery wasn't interested in them

[SOUP]

Six...send me your most recent email so I can hook U up with Fran.

canespace86@aol.com

[SlingBlade]

so now scouts lists tyriq mccord as a soft verbal...i wonder if that is because he is visiting USC on the 27th

[Ohio_Cane]

Remember that for NSD...it's gonna get crazy up in here!

Posted by: SOUP | January 21, 2012 at 09:30 PM
----------------------------------------------

I won't need that. I'll have 2 PC's and a TV goin. Can't get any more ALL IN!!

[Ohio_Cane]

SOUP, my fiancé wanted U to know she's got your back! Lol

http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s291/wes02/34c5939e.jpg

[SOUP]

Ohio...NICE!

[Tallycane]

Jo Jo burned...by a famu player at that!

[LB]

I have a funny feeling that one day, sooner than later, someone gets rubbed the wrong way. That same someone tells the whole story, the terrible secrets that make us all want to take a bath.

Then these stories about money, stop trickling out... and burst like a freaking dam.

Then Al Golden and those of his ilk look even more impressive in the landscape.

[Six]

Sling - don't worry about Tyriq. They did the same thing with Chick when Bossman Shannon was fired .... Goldie Hawn could've been the coach of the Canes like in the movie Wildcats and Chick would've still committed

86 - aight

[LB]

I love Canespace. You guys have T-shirts? Good grief!

I actually may call off NSD and mass monitor everything.

[SOUP]

LB...we have had T-shirts for the last four years, new design each year. U can get a T-shirt for being FIRST on the blog, for writing an article or sometimes just for showing up at a UM sports event and finding me.

That's how we roll!

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

Kristen Kenney reporting Goldman to UM is done. Says he's focusing on Bama, Auburn and FSWhoo

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 21, 2012 at 06:27 PM

Yeah then right after this, Heather Dinich reports Miami and FSU still in it for Goldman on her weekly mailblog.

Not sure how that is, ESPN reports it on their rumor central, then their own ACC blogger reports something different.

Scouts.com Kristen Kenney, according to ESPN rumor central, reported Goldman "may" have eliminated Miami, so it's tentative right now.

[TheWhat]

Im happy with briscoe he is gonna be special. We need more and will get more but we are recruiting with one hand tied behind our back against the SEC, FSU, Clemson and others and we are holding our own. if any players want money go elsewhere

Go canes

[SOUP]

Six...I gave Fran your phone number.

Fran...check email.

[Ohio_Cane]

Scouts.com Kristen Kenney, according to ESPN rumor central, reported Goldman "may" have eliminated Miami, so it's tentative right now.

Posted by: Sean Spence is a Beast!!! | January 22, 2012 at 12:30 AM
-----------------------------------------------

That's not what her twitter says. It reads "Goldman to UM is done."

[Texascane]

I think he signs with us...why else would ESPN drop him to #10 in their rankings...?

[SlingBlade]

this teams BB IQ is really lacking...tmj needs to sit the bench for the remainder of the season...reggies defender, DeShawn Painter, is their leading scorer and he has 2 fouls, reggie has position on him...so what does tmj do, yup he shoots a 3 instead of passing him the ball...next possession reggie has position again so what does tmj do...he waits til the double team comes to reggie, then passes him the ball...next possession tmj in on a fast break, what does he do...he crosses half court then passes it back across the line for a over and back...

another thing i have noticed is that most teams we play, you can tell that they have some type of workout program...they look stronger and muscles more defined than our team...

[SlingBlade]

Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott are a combined 1 for 14, 0-7 from 3 point land...

[SlingBlade]

DeQuan Jones has no recorded stats for the game...but he has 3 fouls...

[WindyCane-Forecast1]

CORAL GABLES, Fla. - And then there were four. All remaining teams in the NFL playoffs needed strong performances from their Pro Canes to secure their place in conference championship games ..., while others fell despite highlight-reel performances. An eight-catch, 111-yard performance from Andre Johnson wasn't enough to continue the Texans' magical season, and even two touchdowns and 103 yards from Jimmy Graham couldn't get the Saints past San Francisco. Eight active Pro Canes now remain on playoff rosters, the most of any university in the nation.

***

ProCanes in the Playoffs:

Baltimore Ravens (Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Bryant McKinnie)

New England Patriots (Vince Wilfork)

New York Giants (Antrel Rolle, Kenny Phillips)

San Francisco 49ers (Frank Gore, Tavares Gooden)

[UMike]

Maybe "Golden to Miami is done" means he is a silent lol

[SlingBlade]

Maybe "Golden to Miami is done" means he is a silent lol

Posted by: UMike | January 22, 2012 at 01:56 PM

BREAKING NEWS: Al Golden to miami is done, per UMIKE...

but Eddie Goldman on the other hand is a long shot...

[SOUP]

NEW BLOG IS UP!

[Felipe.]

lol Sling