Five Star Follies: Part I

The well known and frequently followed college recruiting service Rivals.com recently published an article in which they revealed the names of players that made the Rivals five star football recruiting lists over the last five years.

The story was written by the talented Steve Megargee, one of the National feature writers for Rivals who researched the football recruiting classes from 2007 to 2011 and gave a brief analysis of each players success or failure at the college level and in some cases also provided their NFLU draft status.

We thought it would be interesting to do a more in depth statistical analysis on his reporting so that we could try to get a "big picture" overview of just how good a predictor the five-star high school recruit designation was at predicting which players would be successful at the college level.

So we start off this series of five articles by framing the big picture around the lists of players that received the coveted five star label over the last five years. In the coming days we will examine each class more closely in our series of consecutive articles.

Here is what our initial summary analysis found:

• Between 2007 and 2011 a small and select group of only 144 players received the five star rating from Rivals.com.
• The 2009 class was the largest with 33 players making the five star list.
• The 2010 and 2011 classes were the smallest with only 26 players on the list.
• In 2008 there were 30 players that received the five star label while in 2007 there were 29.

So out of the 100,000 or so high school football players in the U.S. in any given year only around 28 players (144 / 5) earned the five star designation on average over the five year period.

Based on this fact alone one would assume that almost every player receiving the prestigious five star designation by one of the top recruiting services in the Country would be considered a "can't miss prospect" that was soon going to win national awards and National Championships, right?

And, as usual, you would assume wrong. In fact, you would be very, very wrong. Which is why it is usually foolish and at times even dangerous to make assumptions based on opinions instead of analyzing the facts.

Which is why we are here to debunk the myths and to provide you the facts. Here are some of the initial facts we found by studying the Rivals.com five star recruiting lists over five years (and we hope that you are sitting down as you read this!):

• Out of the 144 players designated as five star studs only 36 players or about about 25% went on to becomes what most people would consider to be stars or impact players at the college level.
• That means that approximately 108 players or about 75% of the five star recruits over the five year period were just solid, decent or average players who did not have a major impact on their teams success for various reasons.
• As of last count at least 19 players (13%) transferred from the original school they signed a LOI with on National Signing Day.
• From the list we determined that about 18 players (13%) suffered major injuries that had a significant negative impact on their careers.

So what that tells us is that only 1 out of every 4 five star recruits will go on to even bigger things in college or beyond that in the NFLU.

It also shows us that 2 out of every 10 five star players will either transfer to another school or suffer a serious injury that impacts their college career.

So before you go counting all of your five star recruits before or after National Signing Day you should be cautious not to go predicting their individual success or their team's potential accomplishments.

Simply put, counting on five star recruits to be difference makers has been shown to not be such a good predictor of a team's success after all.

Comments

[SOUP]

I'm working on a Nike deal for u after NSD and Wheaties is talking about putting u on the box on NSD. How does that sound?

Posted by: Willie Will in Nashville | January 18, 2012 at 02:52 PM

Not so FAST my friend!

Canespace has Ohio signed to an exclusive rights deal through 2013. And trust me on this: The buyout clause is too steep to even consider!

[SOUP]

BTW...I am here blogging from the BEAUTIFUL Newman Alumni Center of the warm, tropical campus of the University of Miami!

The Business Center here on the first floor of this recently built facility has 6 computers that are available for use by Alumni.

Funny how somehow they all have Canespace on their screens right about now?

[4-Real]

Upnorth, how does it feel 2 be the father of the SWAG PRINCESS??? :)

[Ohio_Cane]

Funny how somehow they all have Canespace on their screens right about now?

Posted by: SOUP | January 18, 2012 at 04:42 PM
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That always seems to happen at places U visit. Weird.

[SOUP]

http://canespace.typepad.com/canespace/2011/05/new-um-alumni-center-is-impressive.html

[SOUP]

Leaving The Titanic...headed for the game!

GO CANES!!!

[TJL]

I am hearing Chase Ford is tearing it up at the Shrine game practices-they are saying he is catching every ball thrown to him. WTF?

[SlingBlade]

Avery Young visits UM this weekend, just FYI.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 18, 2012 at 12:52 PM

avery young has said that his top 3 are florida alabama and georgia...he is taking his visit to the U out of respect to the friends he has made that are trying to recruit him there and to coach golden...the only way the U breaks into his top three is if he is blown away on his visit...now i have confidence in golden in being able to blow away recruits...imo he is not a must have in this class

[SOUP]

From the BankUnited Center this is Canespace LIVE!

[SOUP]

Enjoy the game Canes fans!

Sling...U got this???

[SlingBlade]

BB is my game...i got this

[SlingBlade]

if you are not in the miami area you can watch the game on espn3

[SlingBlade]

malcom grant hits his first two shots...both 3 pointers...this is a good sign...he has been in a funk since his brother passed...

[SlingBlade]

canes dominating early...up 17-8...making 6 of 7 shots...

[Brett]

I'm baffled that rivals has duke a 5star kid rated behind a 4 star kid?? May some1 pls explain to me this UM bias!!!!

[SlingBlade]

hard fought game...canes up 42-39 at the half...tanner smith keeping clemson in the game with 18pts...someone needs to make him work harder on the defensive side...

[SlingBlade]

duke just got his 5th star...they may have not updated the rankings yet...

[LB]

Ryan Williams!

[SlingBlade]

what i dont understand about this offense is...why do they have reggie coming out to set the screens...when you do that you take him away from the basket, therefore eliminating him from the offensive side of the ball...if he comes out and sets a screen then you have to dribble the ball at his defender to make him guard you then hit reggie on the the roll to the hoop...but that isnt happening

[3G Cane]

72-64 Canes lead with 3:19 left in the second half.

[3G Cane]

Canes hang on to win 76-73

[SlingBlade]

good not great win tonight...they beat a team that they should of had an easier time beating...best part was that there were 5 different players in double digit scoring and the FT shooting was great...they just need to figure out how to get reggie more involved in the offense...

[The Dude]

Ed Reed can make more plays on a QB whereas Sean could make more plays on WRs and RBs, just preference really.

[SOUP]

Just arrived in Islamorada about 30 minutes ago after going to the BB game. Canes made it too exciting and the refs didn't help. Several BAD call against Miami late.

Anywho, good to see Grant light it up and the Canes win their ACC home opener.

LOTS of work still to be done on offense for the Canes. I agree with Sling keep Reggie down in the low post to disrupt the middle and REBOUND even if he is not scoring. They should work inside-outside with him down low.

[SOUP]

NEW BLOG IS UP!