Star Wars: Return Of The Recruits

Every year right around this time a lot of college football fans all across the Country make a lot of fuss about the desperately sought after, much heralded and precious few "must have" recruits for their teams.

Many of these fans rely heavily if not solely on the "star ranking system" used by the major recruiting services that supposedly evaluates and separates the 100,000 or so high school football players into the well known various groupings of talent based on the number of stars a player receives.

Some fans become so obsessed with the four and five star recruits that can make ar break an entire recruiting class that they lose sleep, get into arguments and even throw major tantrums when a players chooses any other school than their own.

Seeing as how recruiting is literally the life-blood of any major football program it is not hard to understand how a few fans go so far (maybe too far?) as to take the recruiting process as a life and death situation.

This year is no different than any other as the recruiting process revs into high gear and the waiting, worrying, prognosticating and hand-wringing began in earnest in early January leading up to National Signing Day on the first Wednesday in February.

This year that day happens to fall on February 1, 2012. And as usual, the State's "Big Three" (FSU, UF and UM), are once again are ranked near the top of the heap when it comes to this years talent haul of high school players.

But can anyone fully trust and really have faith in these recuiting services and their star rankings? And just how accurate are they when evaluated over time? If you believe they are accurate then OK let's try a little test shall we?

Quick name the last four players who were five-star recruits for the University of Miami?

If you answered LB Arthur Brown, DL Marcus Forston, DB Ray Ray Armstrong and OL Seantrel Henderson then U are correct!

But at the last check, how did those recruits work out at The U?

Arthur Brown never started and then transferred, Forston was often injured an only average, the verdict on Armstrong is still out and the future of Henderson remains to be seen after his next season at UM.

Now try to name the positions that these five star recruits played and whether or not they made an impact on their college teams and/or were drafted by the NFLU:

• Terrance Toliver (LSU)
• Will Hill (UF)
• Gary Brown (FSU)
• Chris Davenport (LSU)
• Darrell Scott (CO)
• Matt Patchan (UF)

After you do that then let me know what % of high school five stars make the NFLU?

Comments

[MDCane]

Five Star or Bust!

[Q]

damn! almost got it !!

[Q]

Terrance Tolliver was mostly like a LaRon Byrd to me. Didn't do much in college.

Will Hill had a okay sophomore season like Ray Ray but left his junior year to the NFL and didn't get drafted..

Davenport i remember hearing his name some...

Darrell Scott is a bum. He got beat out at Colorado by a 5'7'' RB and transferred .

Patchman...bum! Started a couple of games this past year and had back problems.

and you forgot about Latwan Anderson..whom never could get off that track team and then Golden didnt want him.

[Scott Martineau]

Believe it or not I actually did a study as to the last six drafts and how likely a kid who was a draftee was to having been a 5 star recruit by one of the major services, a 4 star recruit from one of the major services, a 3 star recruit from one of the major services, and either 2 stars or no stars and be picked in the first two rounds. It does not look at failure rates but exactly half were either five or four star recruits leaving HS, and the other half were either 3 star, 2 star or no rating whatsoever when leaving HS by any of the three major services. If anyone understands how to run statistical regressions I will be more than happy to share my data. I plan to finish and do all seven rounds and even NFL free agents who made teams but that data set is enormous. I happened to be working on this when u posted it but I have already probably put about 40 man hours into it. Note: despite the relatively small sample size if a kid was rated 4 stars by at least two of the three services (assigning him a value of 14), he was more likely to be a first round pick than either a kid who had only one of the services rating him as five star and not any more likely than a straight four star, but nonetheless worth mentioning.

[roachcane77]

Nice stuff Soup & Scott...

Bottom line... it's the heart, NOT the stars!

AG is recruiting the right players... he's proven that at Temple and with his first "partial" class here last season. (I say "partial" because he had such little time to work.)

What he and his staff are doing now with the potential NCAA sanctions still looming is nothing short of a miracle.

Hoping for continued good news on NSD.

Again, thanks for doing, (and sharing), your research gentlemen... like I said before... nice stuff! CaneSpace ROCKS!

Let's Go Canes!

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

Quick name the last four players who were five-star recruits for the University of Miami?

If you answered LB Arthur Brown, DL Marcus Forston, DB Ray Ray Armstrong and OL Seantrel Henderson then U are correct!

But at the last check, how did those recruits work out at The U?

****************

Well, Seantrel was chosen 2nd team freshman all-american by some publications, his 2nd year he was plagued with injuries and even though there was no certainty for him to come back from a back surgery last year, he still worked hard to get back and did a decent job at that.

He will have a monster season this year, no doubt about it.

Difference between him and the other 5 stars, he never complained and whined, and he is dedicated and not lazy, he is willing to be coached up.

[Ohio_Cane]

Milian - Aldarius Johnson will not play in Battle of Florida all-star game on Saturday because NFL does not consider ex-UMer a draft-eligible senior.

[Ohio_Cane]

Papa Cane - Remember The Name: 2013 Safety Ahmad Thomas, 6-Foot and 190 lbs, out of Miami Central. If offered, most likely Cane.

Recruiting Update: 4-Star RB Davante Bourque still plans to visit Miami on January 20th. Coach Richardson will visit him tomorrow.

[Ohio_Cane]

Papa Cane - Recruiting Update: 4-Star Athlete Will Redmond, 6-foot and 180 lbs, will visit Miami next week. His coach is Cane Marcus Wimberly.

[Ohio_Cane]

Papa Cane - I expect no more than 3-4 commitments between now and National Signing Day. All are for big targets. 4 and 5 star kids. Goldman, Young, etc.

[Ohio_Cane]

Tim Reynolds - Miami Hurricanes have sent out a "compliance newsletter," detailing some do's and dont's for boosters. No Nevin Shapiro reference within.

[Texascane]

Brent Venables from OU to Clemson...750,000 to 1,000,000 for a D Coordinator...Clemson O coordinator making 1.3 million...my oh my...

http://newsok.com/ou-football-brent-venables-visiting-clemson/article/3640670

[SOUP]

Scott Martineau...send me the data that you have an I will turn it into an article for the blog.

canespace86@aol.com

[calGary Cane]

Five Star or Bust!

Posted by: MDCane | January 16, 2012 at 05:22 AM

Ohhhh...first AND sassy!

[Thewhat]

I think the failings of the star system is more a result of human nature than anything else. The first and most obvious is the fact that humans are making judgements on players and how they will fare in college based strictly on their performances in games. That judgement is highly subjective.

The second aspect of the star system failing due to human nature is the fact that the star system itself creates stars out of 17 and 18 year old kids. Imagine as a 17 year old you have rivals or scout or espn interviewing you. Imagine you are the toast of your school and of every college football program in the country. Your head quickly gets big. Suddenly that hunger and drive that got you so much attention and fame is not longer there. Now you are in college and feel entitled to start, feel entitled to get your jersey number, entitled to get the girls, get money, get to the nfl, get attention, get babyed, get your every need and desire met. Everything is about getting and in return there is no giving. When you give a kid $1000 dollars for gas money on a recruiting trip, provide him women to have sex with, treat him as though he is a king what can you possibly expect other than a spoiled kid that feels entitled to start and thinks he's Gods gift to football. Once you lose that hunger your once elite talent seems dull in comparison to a 2 or 3 star that gets no special treatment and has to earn everything he gets.

Of course this does not apply to all five stars or highly touted four stars. But you can see where kids can become lazy and entitles and lose their hunger. Think back to when you were a kid and if you got the attention some of these kids get today would you too not feel entitled, get lazy and lose heart? You would as I would as would most kids.

[TheWhat]

One last thing I forgot to mention. Depending on who is rating these players, it is subjective in terms of the stars they get based on what school they go to. The recruiting evaluators have their favorite schools as does everyone else. If you choose their preferred school you can potentially get an extra star. You choose a school other than theirs and you potentially lose a star. Living in the DC area I head Lavar Arrington talk about his recruiting process and how he was pressured to sign with certain schools (Florida) and when he declined it cost him some stars as well as well as participation in some of the big high school events.

I know it's hard to ignore the star system, it's our only measurement of high school players. But no matter Miami's ranking at the end of this recruiting cycle lets put more faith in Coach G and his plan and process over the star system.

Go Canes!!!

[LB]

Excellent article. Though recruiting services have evolved, there is still no exact science. Didn't Golden turn a no-star into a first rounder (M. Wilkerson)?

However:

2010: Storm Johnson left when it got rough. Brandon Linder is a weight-room junkie & a solid player. Same class.

2009: Remember Prince Kent? Probably not. Yet everyone will remember Lamar Miller.

2008: For every Aldarius Johnson & Marcus Forston, we have a Sean Spence & Brandon Harris.

Honestly, we Cane fans need SOMETHING to follow until next season begins. The whole thing is psychotic & ridiculous. Following hormone-driven 16-18 year olds who would probably rather be getting a date than lifting weights seems strange.

Point: having your head on straight is a rare accomplishment at that age for an athlete. And that's exactly what Golden wants. I haven't heard a peep about Perryman and Chickillo except to say how awesome they are.

Yet we follow this whole mess like heroin addicts. It's essentially a stupid, professional wrestling-esque with A.J. Leggett jumping off before he gets back on, only to swan dive back off. The mystery surrounding Tyriq McCord and USC will boggle our minds until National Signing Day.

What does "soft commitment" mean?

Mass exodus of Floridians to Louisville (it must be the water).

The annoyance of FSU recruiting numbers (despite their consecutive four loss seasons and 2 titles to UM's 5).

Who is Papa Cane, and why is he so awesome?

Will LB post another cheap pop about a certain UM quarterback?

If UM isn't ranked in the ESPN top 10 recruiting class, will that trigger the end of the world?

No drug could ever conjure such a whirlwind of dueling realities. Yet here we are: one and all.

God bless America, I'm finished. Go Canes!

[SOUP]

Of course this does not apply to all five stars or highly touted four stars. But you can see where kids can become lazy and entitles and lose their hunger. Think back to when you were a kid and if you got the attention some of these kids get today would you too not feel entitled, get lazy and lose heart? You would as I would as would most kids.

Posted by: Thewhat | January 16, 2012 at 10:08 AM

There IT is right there.

[SOUP]

1. Who is Papa Cane, and why is he so awesome?

2. Will LB post another cheap pop about a certain UM quarterback?

3. If UM isn't ranked in the ESPN top 10 recruiting class, will that trigger the end of the world?

Posted by: LB | January 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

1. Nobody knows but that cat is WAY cool.

2. He better NOT! I'm jus sayin...

3. UM already is in the top 10 recruiting class for 2012 and will IMPROVE their position after a few BIG surprises over the next week or two so we will never know IF the world would have ended.

According to the Mayans the world will end anyway on 12/21/12 so go figure.

[UMike]

It's been a busy week for 2013 prospect Jayron Kearse, the nephew of former Florida Gator and NFL defensive end Jevon 'The Freak' Kearse.

First, Kearse transferred high schools, going from Fort Myers Cypress Lake to South Fort Myers. According to the Naples Daily News and the Fort Myers News-Press, he started classes this week at South.

Then on Sunday, Kearse, a previous Auburn commitment, posted a symbol for the University of Miami -- []_[] -- and a picture of himself with Miami coach Al Golden on his Facebook page, and Rivals affiliate CaneSport.com reported that Kearse was flipping his pledge from Auburn to the Hurricanes.

Kearse, a 6-foot-4, 190-pound ATH who played quarterback at Cypress Lake this past season, told the Daily News he is mostly wanted by colleges for the wide receiver position, but as his body matures through the summer and his senior year, he's willing to play whatever position for which his physical makeup is best suited.

He also played running back at times last fall and he finished with 1,459 rushing yards for the season.

Rumors had been circulating that Kearse was going to decommit from Auburn, and the Daily News reported that Cypress Lake AD Doug Jennett said Tuesday that Kearse told him he was headed to Notre Dame.

On Thursday, Kearse posted on his Facebook, in response to the Notre Dame rumors and the News-Press article, "NOTRE DAME IS NOT GETTING A COMMITMENT FROM ME I'M STILL COMMITTED TO AUBURN. I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S UP WITH PEOPLE AT CYPRESS RIGHT NOW SPREADING THESE RUMORS TO NEWS-PRESS ABOUT ME BUT I'M STILL WITH AUBURN AS OF NOW." (all caps sic).

Kearse was on a junior day visit to Miami this past weekend.

He told CaneSport.com: "Junior Day really convinced me," Kearse said. "It was about the school, the smaller classes at a private school. I kept thinking about how that will benefit me because if I'm in a class with a bunch of people I'm going to shy out of asking questions. With smaller classes I won't be shy."

[UMike]

Does anyone know or think this is the same kid? Same area,, http://florida.arrests.org/Arrests/Jayron_Kearse_3098415/

[Ohio_Cane]

According to the Mayans the world will end anyway on 12/21/12 so go figure.

Posted by: SOUP | January 16, 2012 at 11:22 AM
--------------------------------------------------

The Mayans are also the same ppl who sacrificed their own to the Gods so they would take mercy on them and not end the world They did this by burning them and dumping them into their lake, which also happened to be their water supply, which eventually poisoned their water supply and lead to the extinction of their kind.

Careful who U trust....

[UMike]

New South Fort Myers football player Jayron Kearse has verbally committed to the University of Miami.

Kearse, who was listed as an “athlete” by recruiting services, transferred to South last week after playing mostly quarterback three years at Cypress Lake High School. Kearse previously had committed to Auburn in August.

Kearse posted a picture of himself on his Twitter feed on Sunday holding a University of Miami helmet and wearing a Hurricanes sweatshirt standing next to Hurricanes coach Al Golden.

Kearse, who is a junior this academic year, can’t sign until February 2013. He could join former Wolfpack quarterback Dallas Crawford, who redshirted this year as a cornerback with the Hurricanes, and Nate Dortch, who has verbally committed to Miami and can sign Feb. 1.

[UMike]

https://twitter.com/#!/Nolimits26/status/158735023762194433/photo/1

[UMike]

elray Beach (Fla.) Atlantic class of 2013 defensive tackle Keith Bryant committed to Miami after visiting the program for a junior day event Sunday.

After participating in the Under Armour Combine, Bryant had suggested that Miami was aggressively recruiting him.

"They were really showing me a lot of love with a ton of letters leading up to me visiting today," Bryant said. "I felt like the coaching staff and the players were really buying it."

[Ohio_Cane]

Jon Bastian - 2013 LB Matthew Thomas names Canes as one of his top schools. Miami has offered and were one of his childhood favorites.

[Ohio_Cane]

Duke Johnson now listed as 5-star on Rivals.

[SOUP]

Duke Johnson now listed as 5-star on Rivals.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 16, 2012 at 12:27 PM

He really upped his stock in the FHSAA playoffs and at the UAAA practices. He played against the best of the best and still stood out. He earned that fifth star.

[UMike]

Duke Johnson now listed as 5-star on Rivals.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 16, 2012 at 12:27 PM

its about time lol

[UMike]

Randy duke johnson @D3jr93

With that being said.Stars don't mean nun at the next level..the next level is about the amout of work you put in.......P.S #HAPPY5*

[UMike]

Randy duke johnson
I wanna thank @larryblustein who always had faith in me and knew that I was a five star all alone and knew I was a 5* when no one els did...

[TJL]

Yikes UMIKE looks like the same kid...guess he used to be a bad boy!

[UMike]

TJL..if im correct, that is when he was 14...man..when I was 14..... lol..but Im sure Golden did his homework.

[Ohio_Cane]

UMike, if that's the same kid, Golden knows about it and has already talked to him about it. Otherwise, he wouldn't have an offer.

[UMike]

Larry Blustein tweets his "Florida Prospect Highlight" and includes Rivals and Corey Long..helps get this kids some attention.

[UMike]

Ohio...thats what I was thinking..im sure Golden did his homework..no doubt in my mind.

[j.w.]

UMike- that is the same kid. Agree with Ohio and you that Golden is well aware of it. If there's anything esle, I'm sure we'll hear it soon but I'm with both of you in believing there isn't.

[Ohio_Cane]

Is it Feb 1st yet?!? Lol

[UMike]

Not to much longer Ohio...if you want, I can try to work the Twitter feeds if im not in school so you can do your signing day thing

[Ohio_Cane]

Not to much longer Ohio...if you want, I can try to work the Twitter feeds if im not in school so you can do your signing day thing

Posted by: UMike | January 16, 2012 at 01:52 PM
----------------------------------------

I should be good to go. Not that much extra effort to copy/paste from here to there. Thanks tho!

[UMike]

Thearon @T_COLLIER
You the type that pop up wen a nigga rolling that kush huh

And people wonder why he was let go lol...sad..to quote a line from my favorite movie "the saddest thing in life is wasted talent."

[3G Cane]

Jon Bastian - 2013 LB Matthew Thomas names Canes as one of his top schools. Miami has offered and were one of his childhood favorites.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane
-----
This kid is a beast.

[UMike]

Ohio..r u at work,,can I email u?

[Ohio_Cane]

Ohio..r u at work,,can I email u?

Posted by: UMike | January 16, 2012 at 02:21 PM
---------------------------------------

9-5, Mon-Fri. U sure can.

[3G Cane]

2013 LB George Williams is also a beast.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4JVISEhAcSY#!

[UMike]

Ohio..check email

[Ohio_Cane]

UMike, read and responded.

[Ohio_Cane]

Twice. Lol

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

Randy duke johnson @D3jr93

With that being said.Stars don't mean nun at the next level..the next level is about the amout of work you put in.......P.S #HAPPY5*

Posted by: UMike | January 16, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Kid is mature beyond his years.

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

UMike, if that's the same kid, Golden knows about it and has already talked to him about it. Otherwise, he wouldn't have an offer.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | January 16, 2012 at 01:02 PM

Then props to Golden for not judging the kid, everyone needs fresh starts and 2nd chances.

[pbcfrcane13]

Is it me or does the picture of Kearse with Coach GOlden looks like he's from the 80s with that outfit lol....Looks like the old school cane dressed. Maybe it was just me who noticed that lol.

[UMike]

pbc...i thought the same thing..can we get the kid some updated gear lol

[SOUP]

UMike, Ohio, JW, OGV, CGNC...check email.

[Ohio_Cane]

Jon Bastian's FREE article on recent 2013 commit, Keith Bryant:

"Delray Beach (Fla.) Atlantic defensive tackle Keith Bryant has made his interests in the University of Miami known publicly. Yesterday, while attending Miami's Junior Day, he received something that he has wanted all of his life, an offer from Miami.

"Yeah, I am very excited," he said about being committed to Miami. "I committed to coach Golden. He offered me and I told him it was a blessing. I couldn’t stop smiling. I almost hurt my face smiling so hard. I thought about it for a minute and committed."

He explained what is was that made him pull the trigger on the spot. "Cause Miami is the school to be at. It’s the school to go to. It is a great atmosphere, great people. The coaches are great. They show a lot of love. That is what made me want to commit because they showed me a lot of love every time I went down there. They showed that they cared."

Bryant, 6-foot-2 and 292, gave his thoughts on the Miami program. "It is a great program. Ithink Golden is going to take it to high levels. I think he is going to take itfar. Their business program is high."

The future Hurricane plans on studying psychology when he enrolls."

[Ohio_Cane]

^^^ 6'2, 292 as a Junior DT... Herbie HAS to be happy. Lol

[Ohio_Cane]

UMike, Ohio, JW, OGV, CGNC...check email.

Posted by: SOUP | January 16, 2012 at 03:42 PM
-------------------------------------

Checked, read, thanks!

[LB]

Ryan Williams!

[j.w.]

Thanks, Soup!
Loving what we've accomplished in recruiting these past few weeks. Amazing what Golden is doing, this is how you build a contender.

[pbcfrcane13]

can this be the second coming of Butch!

So this would be the year what 97? so by 2017(if the world doesnt end first lol)

Well have the second best team of all time behind our 2001 team sounds good.....

Hey one man can dream right?

[Ohio_Cane]

Jon Bastian - Miami coach Terry Richardson pushing hard for Tennessee commit Davante Bourque. This weekends OV could be the difference maker. Pressure.

[USAFCane]

He told CaneSport.com: "Junior Day really convinced me," Kearse said. "It was about the school, the smaller classes at a private school. I kept thinking about how that will benefit me because if I'm in a class with a bunch of people I'm going to shy out of asking questions. With smaller classes I won't be shy."

Posted by: UMike | January 16, 2012 at 11:42 AM

A good reason to come to Miami, but I got a feeling this kid will commit to about 3 other schools before it is all said and done. I'm excited to see Duke Johnson at Miami.

[UMike]

USAF..I got to admit..I thought the same thing..he might switch a few times..this maybe the definition of a "soft commit" lol

[TJL]

Lorenzo "Speedy" Neil

[herbieibis]

Ohio,
Freaking elated. It's about time and to think we got one a year ahead of time, now we need at least 2 more and the de-line can get back to old times.

[TheWhat]

Ah nick Saban, evil incarnate.

http://blogs.ajc.com/recruiting/2012/01/15/nick-saban-tells-star-atlanta-rb-to-wait-until-next-year-to-sign-with-alabama/

[SinisterCane]

Ah nick Saban, evil incarnate.

http://blogs.ajc.com/recruiting/2012/01/15/nick-saban-tells-star-atlanta-rb-to-wait-until-next-year-to-sign-with-alabama/

Posted by: TheWhat | January 16, 2012 at 05:54 PM

Not to call name but that kids is a fool to wait on Saban

[UMike]

Ah nick Saban, evil incarnate.

http://blogs.ajc.com/recruiting/2012/01/15/nick-saban-tells-star-atlanta-rb-to-wait-until-next-year-to-sign-with-alabama/

Posted by: TheWhat | January 16, 2012 at 05:54 PM

Not to call name but that kids is a fool to wait on Saban

Posted by: SinisterCane | January 16, 2012 at 06:21 PM

Now..if we do that and the kid waits,,we say he is a good kid, true Cane lol

[SinisterCane]

Now..if we do that and the kid waits,,we say he is a good kid, true Cane lol

Posted by: UMike | January 16, 2012 at 06:23

To wait 2 weeks before NSD to tell is EFF up

[UMike]

Sinister...I agree that is messed up..especially when (from the article) he was Bama's 7th recruit lol...what I meant is, everyone over signs....but if a kid is willing to wait to Jan because he really wants to play for Miami we like him lol

[3G Cane]

USAFCane-FWIW

Kearse-"UM is the perfect fit for me," he said. "I love how their classes are small and I think I can really benefit from that. I like the coaches and I am not visiting any other schools. I am done with recruiting now and I am a Miami Hurricane."

[WindyCane-Forecast1]

Duke's climb to a 5 star is long overdue. When it comes to Duke, however, you can throw the ratings out the window.

After watching many Fla. HS players play live over the last several years, I can confidently say that Duke is the best HS rb I have seen in a while. Duke will contribute right away at UM. His size leads some to believe he is not an every down back, but Duke was the best player in HS football in 2011, hands down. That was a huge commitment for Golden.

I have seen several commitments play, and they are all very good. A couple more players like Duke and this class could be one of the best classes (regardless of ranking) that the Canes have hauled in in years.

[SOUP]

Insiders...check email. Stuff is heating up!

[SOUP]

Lorenzo "Speedy" Neil

Posted by: TJL | January 16, 2012 at 05:42 PM

It is NEAL, not NEIL!

Now name the HS he came from?

[Montreal-Cane]

Oh boy! I was at the U back then... Speedy Neal was the biggest and slowest back we have had in the last 30 years and was a decent back despite running straitght...Lol...

[canesteeler]

Soup share that insiders information!

[Montreal-Cane]

Soup share that insiders information!

Posted by: canesteeler | January 16, 2012 at 08:01 PM

Yes SOUP we are desperate for more good news and what happenned with our juniors declaring for the NFL and having no chance to be drafted in the first two rounds...I am sure you know a little bit about what happenned behind the scene and why the kids made bad decisions...

[Montreal-Cane]

Miami Carol City

[SwagGirl]

Soup whats up with the inside information????

[UMike]

I like our chances with Bourque..we get his last visit. Tenn only has 10 commits, but 9 are 4-star players, dam sec lol

[SOUP]

NEW BLOG IS UP!