In real estate the question is often asked about how a property's value is determined? The answer? That's simple stupid: Location, location, location!
But what some college football fans don't know is that when it comes to college football recruiting the very same answer can be used to answer the question: "Where will Johnny Five Star sign?"
What most fans of college teams all across the U.S. don't realize is that over 80% of high school athletes sign with a college team in their home state. In fact it is said by most of the National recruiting experts that location, location, location is the number one factor in recruiting decisions happening in living rooms each and every National Signing Day.
Those fans that constantly wonder or complain out loud on blogs and message boards all across the Internet by asking: "Why didn't Johnny Five Star sign with my team?" really don't have a clue about just how the National recruiting game actually works. So let me enlighten you.
Let's take a look at the current top 10 ranked teams for the 2013 recruiting class according to Scout.com:
- Texas A&M
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
Now a couple of quick facts and comments about those recruits who have verbally committed so far:
- To date these 10 top ranked teams have a total of 185 total verbal commits combined.
- None of the teams in the current Scout top 10 rankings are from Florida so it would make perfect sense that ONLY 10 of these 185 verbal commits, or less than 6%, are from Florida.
- Four of them are from what we consider the University of Miami's designated geographical recruiting area of South Florida which is comprised of Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties with Lee County thrown in for good measure (Plantation, Ft Lauderdale, Cooper City, Naples).
- Four of them are from the Central Florida area (Orlando , Lakeland, Ocala) which is within the University of Florida's designated footprint for recruiting.
- Two of them are from North Florida (Pensacola and Tallahassee) which of course is the official stomping grounds of the Florida State Seminoles.
The point of all of this being that the top 10 ranked teams for the 2013 recruiting cycle are not getting their talent from Florida because they are not located in Florida. The perception that UM, UF and FSU are all losing out on all the top talent from Florida does not stand the light of day test.
Of the ten players verbally committed to the top 10 ranked teams:
- Eight are rated as just above average three-star players.
- One is a four-star player (TE Mike Heuerman to Notre Dame).
- Only one is a five-star (DL Joey Bosa to Ohio State).
It is not like these teams are raping and pillaging the Sunshine State to get their players. They are staying home to get most if not all of their talent. And the same is also true for "The Big Three" in Florida: UM, UF and FSU.
So if these players are not coming from Florida, a nationally known hot-bed of high school football talent, then where? Well, I am so glad you asked! This brings us right back to our "location, location, location" theme of this article, so stick with me here.
Four of the top 10 ranked teams have NO recruits from Florida, three have just one and only three have more than one. Notre Dame, which obviously has always had national recruiting presence even in spite of their recent mediocrity on the field has two, and Ohio State, with former Florida Gator head coach Urban Meyer at the helm, also has two.
The only team in the top 10 with three verbal commits from Florida? Why the closest State geographically to the Sunshine State: Georgia of course!
Everyone is raving about USC's complete domination of five-star talent for 2013. In fact the Trojans have a whopping SIX five-star recruits that have verbally committed so far. The next highest is Michigan with three five-star recruits, followed by a few teams with two already verbally committed.
So if you really want to find out where these players are coming from, and where they are going in much greater detail, then come back on Monday for the rest of the story.