Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

There is a certain school of thought that believes you can make statistics say whatever you want them to say to prove a point.  Some even go as far as to say that there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.  Others are just as certain that all truth lies in statistics and are fond of saying that "the stats never lie".  Which statement about statistics is really true we aren't so sure, but we will attempt to use them anyway in this feature article to prove a point, even though we are not quite sure what it is. 

What we do know is that from a big picture point of view, the 2007 University of Miami football season was by all accounts disappointing to say the least.  While the majority of Canes fans here had predicted a reasonably successful season such as 9-3 or 10-2 before it all started, there were still those few who believed that new Head Coach Randy Shannon would have a major, immediate impact on the team. 

They believed that the change at the top would result in an instant change in attitude, motivation, and performance for the 2007 squad when compared to the 2006 team.  Surely, these players would respond to The Boss and he would get things turned around and fast! Unfortunately, many of these fans failed to take into account that the same players that went 7-6 in 2006 would be back for more fun and games in 2007 and that most of these players would not improve.

In a pre-season poll conducted here at Canespace 12% of the fans actually predicted that the Canes would go undefeated in 2007!  They became known in Canespace legend and lore as the 12% Club or the 12%ers.  Needless to say, their membership dwindled significantly after the big loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman.  Other hopeful predictions soon faded as well as the year wore on and the losses, all seven of them, piled up. 

Only one fan here at Canespace, AlpharettaCane, would go out on a limb, suffer ridicule from other "fans", and predict a season as bad as 8-4.  Even that proved to be too optimistic.   

To compound the problem, the Canes lost at least four games, three of them at home including the final home game in the historic Orange Bowl, to teams most fans feel they should have beaten: UNC, NCST, GT and UVA.  UVA stomped on UM fans' dream of one last win in the final game at the OB 48-0, the first shutout at home since 1974 when the Canes lost 3-0 to Auburn. 

Even before that debacle, the Canes were on the road and down 27-0 against old coach Butch Davis and his Tar Heels before the Hurricane players looked like they even knew there was game being played. In all of these games the Canes appeared to be out coached, outplayed and out hustled by teams with supposedly less talent but significantly more motivation and better execution.   

Many of the same problems that plagued the 2006 team returned for an encore performance in 2007: Poor and inconsistent QB play, poor special teams play and a lack of play makers at WR.  Neither Kirby, who somehow managed to find a way to play hero for one game against FSU and pull out a last minute win over the Noles, nor Kyle, who struggled with turnovers and inconsistency through the season (again), proved to be the answer to new Offensive Coordinator Patrick Nix's new offense. 

And, as if things on offense and special teams weren't bad enough, a new problem surfaced in 2007 under first year Defensive Coordinator Tim Walton: a porous defense that gave up too many points and too many third down conversions along the way.  The Canes D came to be known here on Canespace as the "Power of Cheese" defense.  That would be cheese as in Swiss cheese, as in full of holes. 

The once proud and stoudt Canes defense was seriously and repeatedly gashed by the run, gave up way too many big pass plays and was even embarassed at times (can you say 48-0?).  They couldn't get off the field often enough to give the Canes more opportunities to score, and God knows with the K&K boys at QB, the Canes needed every chance they could possibly get!

Pre-season All-American Calais Campbell (pictured at left) had one good game against Texas A&M and then disappeared for several games.  All-Everything Safety Kenny Phillips was left to make too many tackles due to an undersized defensive line and an equallly underperforming linebacking crew. 

Sure, new starter Colin McCarthy had his moments like the big fumble return against FSU to seal the deal and Tavares Gooden turned out to be a solid and consistent if not spectacular player who may have played himself into the first or second round of the NFL draft.  But these guys were not going to make Canes fan forget about the Bermuda Triangle or other great Cane linebackers of the past that went on to play on Sundays in the NFLU.   

Often playing shorthanded due to injuries didn't help their cause any either, but still did not offer a total excuse for their consistently poor play. Coach Walton's defense often looked dazed and confused (cue the Zeppelin tune) and blew coverages on a regular basis.  Opposing wide recievers appeared to run unmolested and unattended through the secondary that Timmy formerly coached under then Defensive Coordinator Randy Shannon.  Canes fans soon came to realize that crying wouldn't help and praying didn't do any good.

Nothing seemed to make sense in 2007.  So we decided to take a closer look at the statistics and compare the 2006 and 2007 teams to see if we could determine where, how or why things went so wrong for the Canes this year. 

To our surprise, here is what we found:

Scoring: 2007 UM 247, OPP 312 / 2006 UM 255, OPP 201. 

Result: Canes scored 8 fewer points in 2007 but gave up 111 more points than in 2006. The point differential for UM versus all opponents went from a +54 in 2006 to a -65 in 2007.

Scoring:  In 2006 Jon Peattie led the team in scoring with 65 points.  In 2007 Francisco Zamponga led the team in scoring with 50 points, 15 fewer than the year before.  The Canes scored only one fewer touchdowns in 2007 but gave up 13 more than in 2006.

Result: UM easily left at least 15 points on the filed from missed field goals which then led to playing musical chairs at kicker.  Suddenly, wide right applied to UM kickers, not FSU.

Fourth Quarter Scoring: 2007 UM 61, OPP 112 / 2006 UM 47, OPP 63.

Result: Even though the Canes scored 14 more points in the fourth quater in 2007 than they did in 2006, they gave up 49 more points (-35) to opponents in the fouth quarter in 2007 than they did in 2006. Four fingers anyone?

First Downs: 2007 UM 190, OPP 213 / 2006 UM 207, OPP 185.

Result: UM gained 17 fewer first downs in 2007 and gave up 28 more first downs than in 2006.

Rushing: 2007 UM 1747, OPP 1605 / 2006 1508, OPP 882.

Result: UM gained 239 more rushing yards in 2007 but gave up TWICE as many as they did in 2006.

Passing: 2007 UM 2034, OPP 2546 / 2006 UM 2567, OPP 2440.

Result: UM gained 533 fewer yards through the air and gave up 106 more than in 2006.  Passing yards per game dropped from 197 to 169 for UM and went up from 187 to 212 for opponents.

Total Yards: 2007 UM 315 YPG, OPP 345 / 2006 UM 313 YPG, OPP 255 YPG.

Result: UM gained 2 more YPG and gave up 90 more YPG to opponents in 2007 versus 2006.

Punting/Field goals: In 2007 declined by 2.6 yards/punt and net yardage also decline by 2.6 yards/punt. UM made only 13 of 21 FG attempts while opponents went 23 of 28.

Result: UM lost field position with each exchange of punts.  Special teams did not score a single touchdown in 2007 and UM's field goal percentage was among the lowest in the ACC and the NCAA.

Tight Ends: In 2006 TE Greg Olsen, who now plays for the Chicago Bears on Sundays along with some guy named Hester, led the team in receptions with 40 and other TE's added 11 more receptions for a total of 51.  In 2007, all UM TE's combined for 28 receptions (-23) with Chris Zellner leading the way with 13.  Yardge dropped from 536 in 2006 to 292 (-244) in 2007 for all TE's.   

Wide Recievers: In 2007 Darnell Jenkins led the team with 31 receptions followed by Sam Shields with 27 and Lance Leggett with 15.  Shields and Leggett caught 10 and 23 FEWER passes respectively in 2007 when compared to 2006. 

Defensive Line: In one of the most inexplicable statistical declines of all, in 2006 Calais Campbell had 84 tackles, including 20 for a loss and 10 sacks.  In 2007 while playing his junior year and vying for NFL draft position, he had only 50 tackles (-34) and only 12 for a loss (-8) and 6 sacks (-4).

Defensive Backs: In 2006 Kenny Phillips had 71 tackles  to finish fourth on the team.  In 2007 he increased his tackles to 82 in 2007 to finish second on the team.  However, in 2006 he led the team with 4 interceptions and had only 2 in 2007.  Randy Phillips led the team in INT's with 3, 2 of which came in the FSU game.  The Canes managed only 13 INTs while their opponents had 20 picks.

Linebackers: In 2006 UM LB Jon Beason (pictured at left), who now plays on Sunday for the Carolina Panthers, led the team in 92 tackles.  In 2007, Tavares Gooden had 100 (+8) tackles to lead the team. 

So to end this negative and depressing statistical summary on a positive note, we will see you on Sundays next year Mr. Gooden, along with your good friends Kenny Phillips and Calais Campbell! 

The streak of having at least one UM player selected in the first round every year seems safe for yet another year between those three players (assuming CC also declares for the NFLU draft later this month as KP did this past week). 

Other than that, the only other good thing to say about this year is that Canespace was developed and led the way for Canes fans to get the news they could use.  Oh yeah, that and the 2007 Hurricanes cheerleaders were hot, really hot.  But more on that on the next blog...

Comments

[M.H.]

Hah

[MDCane]

Suki Suki now!

[MDCane]

Curse you M.H.

[M.H.]

Sorry Md- you typed in too many words

[busy_cane]

Nice recap and statistical comparison. I'm a numbers guy, and those numbers don't lie. We didn't have too many morale victories this year except one... WE BEAT FLORIDA STATE.

One other note on the blog, specifically about the cheerleaders... nah, nevermind, this is a family blog.

[Big Moo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/sports/football/09taylor.html?_r=1&ref=sports&oref=slogin

[MDCane]

The 12% Club is not dead. I figure if we get pass Flordia and VATech next season, the rest of the schedule is in our favor. We should win our half of the ACC hands down; especially with a QB that can stretch the field.

[SOUP]

Busy...don't U worry, we have a cheerleader feature coming up that gonna make your head spin!

[Hurricanedave]

86
Great writeup. That was some pretty tough reading.
I now know why you can't trust Davis, he wears a sweater vest just like the suckeye coach.
The silver lining,we beat FSU.

[Cavaleer]

More cheerleaders.....

[CanesgirlNC]

Solar - LOL how the heck does a man who owns a shirt that says "paddle faster I hear banjo music" get more page views than I do????? j/k Or could this be a ploy with you and 86 to get me to do new pics? LOL!!!! I will work on something worthy of the Canespace Heisman....

Posted by: CanesgirlNC | December 09, 2007 at 09:48 PM

[CanesgirlNC]

20 picks for our opponents - maybe I should revisit Legends of the Fall and retitle it Legend of Sleepy Hollow ya know, with that headless horseman guy, Kylby Fright....

[M.H.]

Is there anyone, available, who can kick-off into the endzone.
86- I did'nt read any stats on field position, but I can imagine.

[Hurricanedave]

More pictures of CGNC? That's all I want for Christmas!!!

[CanesgirlNC]

M.H. my horse can, I am working now on his eligibility - LOL!

[Cavaleer]

The Truth, if Medioker had done his research he would've seen Kyle was an INT machine in bloody HS.

I think U can predict to some degree who will be a real baller and who will fold.

I don't think Team Shannon will have a soft kid on their team once they are "85 strong" as Hurtt calls it....

[M.H.]

Canesgirl- does the U have a polo team?

[solarcane]

CGNC, I'm almost certain its betting people that go there just to prove to themselves its still up.

I'm trashing the entire page first of the year, I have half the new page(s) worked up and only have to persude 86 to OK it.

peace

[SOUP]

86 Great writeup. That was some pretty tough reading. The silver lining,we beat FSU.
Posted by: Hurricanedave | December 09, 2007 at 10:35 PM

Yeah, you don't get this kind of stuff at the MH or the SS now do ya? And they get paid for this stuff!

[Montreal-cane]

South Carolina football player Jordin Lindsey has neck slashed in attack

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=ncf&id=3147923

In this cray world football players can be
targets anywhere...

[solarcane]

Soup,
that was about as depressing an article on this years Canes as I have read.
It was great research work by the writer.
peace

[SOUP]

Or could this be a ploy with you and 86 to get me to do new pics? LOL!!!!
Posted by: CanesgirlNC | December 09, 2007 at 09:48 PM

CGNC...U never know what type of misguided and diabolical scheme Solar and I may be running.

More cheerleaders.....
Posted by: Cavaleer | December 09, 2007 at 10:38 PM

Patience my friend, patience...

[solarcane]

CGNC,
I have always had a secret ambition to do a photo shoot of a Canespace Heisman winner.

You could be like the goodwill ambassador to the Make a Wish Foundation

peace

[Six]

Can anyone tell me why the Patriots didn't have #21 sticker on the back of their helmets, when the Steelers did? You would think Meriweather and Wilfork would at least have something to say about that sh*t. I noticed the Chiefs, Browns, Vikings, Niners, Seahawks, Broncos, Cowboys, Titans, Packers, Raiders, Texans, Eagles, Bengals, Bears, and Redskins all have the #21 sticker on their helmets. A lot of other teams don't. Why the F*CK don't they have them on their helmets?

[solarcane]

CGNC, also you have to consider at least 1,000 of your page looks are PB, he has only visited my page once.
peace

[pb]

And that hit was a mistake, I had been drinking and was longing for my girl.

[pb]

What up Solar.

[SOUP]

Six...that's a damn good question? I thought it was an NFL thing, not a team by team thing? ST deserves their respect.

On a separate note, Can you email me at host@canespace.com about media credentials?

[solarcane]

hey peebster,
you been quiet to long did you see the to youtube clips I posted earlier today?

peace

[Calvin]

You can see why they pulled mccray's offer, he was bashing the record, talking about early playing time is important, saying he's not sure, which is all understandable, but at the same time, shannon and company need solid commits. mccray started sounding real shaky and with arthur brown seeming like he may have been wrapped up after the in home visit, no need to bring in mccray anyway.

Just think, by this time next week, we'll know if the recruiting class will start out strong, guys like pj, patchan, brown, fortson and company may all have signed by than, aldarius too, futch i think gets in early as well. the future is bright, and we truly are moving in the right direction 4sho. With a stronger o-line being built up, and with a stronger wide receiver unit, things should be wide open.

Defensively, guys got alot of playing time and that should translate into being a more consistent defense come next year. COngrats to mayweather, who did a great job adjusting, his uncle was in the corner telling him exactly what needed to be done. floyd stayed discipline and came away with a text book knockout.

[TLuv]

Great Article 86!

Some stats to think about
Carries:
Tim Tebow 194
Javaris James 159
Craig Cooper 125

Rushing TDs
Tim Tebow 22
The U 12

I know this is a lil late but I can't help but state that all those TDs Tebow got could've easily went to the a RB. I know he's a badass, I've been in agreement w/that (and it makes me sick) but his stats are helped greatly by his system. I guess I was pretty shocked Run DMC didn't win the heisman. I'm not saying Tebow didn't deserve it, because you won't get far w/that arguement. However, I myself would've gone w/McFadden. Probly because I hate UF.

Deuces

[SEVER SOME SPLEENS]

86,

DAMN! GOOD ARTICLE!

[Old Skool]

Solid info on Manny's new blog this morning

[CaneSniper]

Barrow didn't tell McCray not to come to the U. He just told him that if you keep taking visits and saying "I don't know where I'll end up going" then that means you're not committed. Remember we only get the player's side, not the coaches. Shannon has been saying all along that if your still looking than he doesn't consider you committed. McCray was the worst of all the committs about saying he doesn't really know where he wants to go, but he's still committed to the U. Again, it doesn't mean his scholly is pulled, he just needed a lesson on what the committed word means. And don't believe he was told to decommit because he wanted to take visits. Miami coaches have been encouraging all the recruit to take them if they want to.

[The Truth]

"Shannon has been saying all along that if your still looking than he doesn't consider you committed."

Not true. VERY not true.

He encourages the kids to take every visit they can and to listen to everyone they want to make sure Miami is the place for them.

[The Truth]

"Again, it doesn't mean his scholly is pulled"

It is pulled. He isn't getting it back either. He won't be playing for Miami and wasn't because of anything he said on a recruiting site.

[MDCane]

"It is pulled. He isn't getting it back either".

Does this mean we get Brown?

[The Truth]

"Does this mean we get Brown?"

That's up to Arthur Brown, but offering him had nothing to do McCray.

[Esteban]

Like Calvin said its not long before we know what the first wave of recruits looks like. Hopefully the early signees will include Patchan and Brandon Harris.

[3-0-CINCO]

Brandon Harris is out of the question as an early sighnee. He wants to run track for Booker T.

[M.H.]

Let this be the year that the U finishes strong, on recruiting.
We start out great and than the cracks start appearing.
Other schools like FSU, are notorious, for closing strong, year after year.

[Esteban]

thanks for the correction 3-0-cinco. forgot about that.

[vince]

In order for RS to turn this thing around quickly we need kids who are committed to the cause. Our opening schedule next year is going to be ball busting.

[Zakkee]

Shannon said that, "if you're (recruit)still looking around, then we (UM) will look around."

I think we'll finish better than anybody (in recruiting) these last couple of months.

[Alex]

I see that KP is moving up to the NFL. I think that it's a good decision for him and his family. He's a sound player, I wouldn't call him a playmaker. I hope CC decides to go as well. I think, again, it is in his best interest. I think the U needs to move on from that dissapointing chapter, many highly overated recruits who drove the program to the ground.

[tyrone]

As a senior in 2002, passed for 2,825 yards and 37 touchdowns while completing 61 percent (167 of 282) of his passes, with only four interceptions...Rushed for 313 yards and five touchdowns...As a junior in 2001, completed 183 of 302 (60.6 percent) for 3,100 yards and 29 touchdowns with six interceptions and rushed for eight touchdowns...Named the 2002-03 Gatorade National High School Football Player of the Year

Cav, give it a rest with KW. Get your facts straight. he threw 67tds to 10int in HS.

[generalcane]

FROM MANNY'S BLOG

- Last week, I reported Northwestern quarterback Jacory Harris' new-found interest for Oregon and I know it caused a bit of an uproar especially considering Harris is not only the most important recruit in UM's class, but also someone who has been UM all the way since he committed. Some of you ripped him on this blog for it. But personally, I don't see a reason why you would put a high school kid down for saying how he truly felt. Harris took a trip to Oregon and liked it. He has every right to. And the things he said comparing Oregon's facilities and fans to UM's are not off base. I know I've talked about the latter a few times here and how it disgusts me how some UM fans get abusive in the treatment of players. If anything Harris' comments about fans should be taken seriously. Fans should know ripping current players in front of potential recruits simply isn't good for business. Harris, by the way, isn't the only current commitment to tell me he's been bothered by the foul-mouthed criticism of players at games.

[vince]

Can any of you believe Brock Berlin is drawing a paycheck from the NFL? he actually had a decent game yesterday.

[Esteban]

Tyrone, i was waiting for that info to be put out there. I'm a big Kyle Wright fan now that he won't be starting anymore for us. Hopefully he wows people at the combine and in the pro day work outs (I think he will). Never know what can happen if he gets picked up by a team with a coach that knows how to develop QBs.

[vince]

Manny should know the UM fans are no different than fans at other schools who are losing games. It is a small minority of fans who go overboard and if a recruit is concerning himself with what the fans is saying his azz is weak. If you are getting a scholarship to a division 1 program you need to develop some tough skin regardless if you are 17 or 21. The pay sites kiss the azzes of all these kids to the point where they think they are God.