Note: Canespacers will be joining Manny Navarro from the Miami Herald who will be blogging the Canes baseball game LIVE from Mark Light Stadium today at 4 PM. Here is the link:
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/umiami/
For the 36th consecutive time (an NCAA record), UM enters the NCAA baseball tournament for a shot at the College World Series. As the Canes begin pursuit of their 23rd appearance in the CWS, they bring a great offense that can hit for power and average; a deep pitching staff with perhaps the best bull pen in
the sport; an outstanding defense led up the middle by the nation's best double play combo; Blake Tekotte in center, and oh by the way, a CANON in left field that goes by the name of Adan. The head coach ain't too bad either. He's looking for his 11th CWS in 15 seasons with The U.
What a difference a year makes! In 2008, Miami's numbers are up across the board from 2007, and significantly in certain key areas. Team battling average is up by 36 points, with 31 more HR's and 104 pts increase in slugging %. The Canes also increased their fielding % from .966 to .975, and for those thinking "so what?" that's a drop of almost one error per game, which resulted in a reduction in unearned runs from 74 to 24 - a huge difference. Team ERA is down 35 points, but the biggest difference here is free bases. Last year, between walks and hit batters, Miami allowed 296 base-runners. This year, its down to 203 - again, a tremendous difference.
Alas, all is not gold that glitter. Eric Erickson has apparently not fully recovered from his mid-season injury, and with him being the likely game one starter, Miami enters the Regional with some trepidation. Although some feel that Kyle Bellamy is a concern, I disagree. He has been money all year long, and his struggles in the ACC tourney were more a result of a miniscule strike zone, than poor pitching. When a sidewinder is losing command, his ball stays flat. Bellamy's had good downward movement on his pitches in Jacksonville in each appearance, and his velocity and location were sound. He and Carlos Gutierrez will be fine in the friendly confines of "The Light".
The other "issue" that concerns me is Yonder Alonso. His relatively modest #'s last weekend exposed his weakness against left handed pitching. He's hitting in the .240's against them. Since those games were televised, you can bet our future opponents will send waves of southpaws to face him for the balance of the season.
UM starts off with Bethune Cookman College and the nation's leader in ERA, Hiram Burgos. UM had a couple of mid-week struggles with BCC, but this is the playoffs. UM will not overlook BCC, and although Burgos is a nice pitcher, his numbers are a product of mediocre competition.
In game 2 of the series with Miami, Burgos came in to get the final out in the 8th to save the game, and UM touched him with a pair of singles to steal the victory.
Of course, the key to this game is UM's starter. I expect Morris to go with Erickson, but he will have a short leash. BCC, similar to the other 2 members of this regional, hits around 300, and has marginal power. Their defense is average and their bull pen is shallow. UM will handle BCC.
Ole Miss would appear to be the major hurdle for the Canes this weekend, as they will have a taste for vengeance. Remember, UM eliminated Ole Miss in 2006 on their
home field in dramatic fashion, when Danny Valencia hit a late grand slam to seal the victory in game 3. The Rebels have a good pitching staff with some major league talent on the mound. Their star is closer Scott Bittle, but their starters are solid. They are a little unusual in that their strength appears to be in the pen, and not their starters. They give up a lot of runs early in games, which bodes well for UM who is a fast starting team averaging nearly 5 runs/game in the first 3 innings.
The Rebels' overall starts are solid, hitting around 300, era around 4, and a good SO/BB ratio. In the SEC, however, those numbers do not hold up. They were .500 in the conference, and their era was up nearly a run a game. Their offense also sputtered against conference pitching. Ole Miss is battle tested in the SEC and has some quality left-handers at their disposal to challenge Alonso. The good news is that Bittle is a rightie, and if we face them in game #2, we'll greet them with Chris Hernandez.
Last, but not least, The Mizzou Tigers are a team with similar #'s to Ole Miss that tail off in conference play. The Big 12 is historically a solid conference, but this is not a particularly strong year. No Big 12 team has been consistently strong, with the possible exception of A & M, who beat Mizzou all 4 times they met this year. Missouri is also led by their pitching staff, with a good stable of starters, but they have only one lefty on the roster with meaningful innings this season (and he's nothing special). They lack a true closer, and have 6 complete games, which is rare in college ball, and is an indication that they are not comfortable with their pen.
The Top Tiger on the roster is starting pitcher Aaron Crow, but I'd be shocked if we see him-they'll need him to get past Ole Miss in the opener. They do not really match up well with the Canes, especially if their starters struggle at all. Miami has outscored the opposition by 123 runs after the 5th inning, showing that while UM hitters feast on the opposition's relievers, Miami's bull pen has been solid all year long. That stat more than any other explains how you go 47-8 with the nation's #1 RPI.
The talking heads at ESPN think this group will be a major test for The U. We've got no walk in the park, but there are very few "easy" Regionals in my opinion. While each of these teams boast capable
pitching, none can match Miami's offense, defense, speed on the base-paths, and its overwhelming history of Regional success on campus. Pull for Mizzou over Ole Miss for an easier road, but if Erickson pitches well in the opener, I like the home team to advance in order. FYI, ESPNU has announced that the Coral Gables Region will be one of two featured, so take their "analysis" with a grain or two of salt as they seek to promote their broadcasts.
Since I'll be gone for a few weeks, I'll give you my 2 cents regarding the Super-Regional. Miami is likely to face Arizona, a tradition rich team that has won the CWS, and just took 2 of 3 from ASU. Michigan is a possibility, but look for the Cats. Nothing jumps out about Arizona statistically, but they played a tough Pac 10 schedule, and won series against Fullerton, and at Georgia, giving them series wins against 3 National Seeds. They are no slouch, and it will be a great match-up.
I hope to be flashing the U all over northern Italy for the next 2 weeks. Get out to The Light and give the Canes the home field advantage they deserve. GO CANES!