Mary Knows Football: Bowl Edition

Before I get to the matchups, I want to share with Canespace the lessons I have learned in my rookie season of “Mary Knows Football,” where I went 30/54* with my picks.

 

(1) Penn State is unreliable.

(2) Don’t make emotion-driven picks against rival teams when the ‘Canes have a tough game that weekend.  I’m not sure if it is bad karma or what, but it sure did lower my average.

(3) Always pick against LSU when playing a big game.

(4) Don’t underestimate TCU.

(5) Don’t make the pick for Miami without the baked goods to back it up.

 

*If not for my all-consuming hatred for Floriduh and the Suckeyes, plus pity votes for FSWho, it would be 39/54.

 

I started out with a rough week – 1/5.  You might recall it, the last week of September, the ‘Canes playing in the cold rain, and a horrifying 3 and ½ hours that I am still trying to erase from my memory.  Over the season, I improved to a couple of 4/5 weeks, so I guess I learned something.  I hope y’all enjoyed the weekly feature this season. Now for the bowl game picks.

 

8 Ohio State vs. 7 Oregon:  Oregon

 

I saw so much promise for the Big Ten this season with the Suckeyes losing to Purdue and Iowa going undefeated for a while.  Sigh.  I guess it’s for the best.  We want the Luckeyes ranked pretty high when we avenge our 6th national championship on 9/11/10 in the horseshoe.  It will be challenging for them to be ranked in the top 10 after their loss to Oregon, however. Oregon has a talented offense led by QB Jeremiah Masoli with 2,066 passing yards, 659 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs, 15 passing TDs, and 5 INT this year.  Masoli, LaMichael James, and Kenjon Barner have combined for 2,437 yards on the ground and 29 rushing TDs. The Ducks’ top receivers are Jeff Maehl (52 receptions, 686 yards, six TDs), Ed Dickson (42 receptions, 551 yards, six TDs), D.J. Davis (22 receptions, 230 yards, two TDs), and Jamere Holland (13 receptions, 199 yards, two TDs).  On the suckeye side of the ball, QB Terrelle Pryor has 1,825 passing yards, 707 rushing yards, seven rushing TDs, 16 passing TDs, and 10 INT.  Pryor, Brandon Saine, Boom Herron, and Jordan Hall have combined for 2,207 yards on the ground and 19 rushing TDs. Ohio State's top receivers are DeVier Posey (52 receptions, 727 yards, seven TDs, plus one passing TD), Dane Sanzenbacher (27 receptions, 506 yards, six TDs), Duron Carter (13 receptions, 176 yards, one TD), Ray Small (15 receptions, 175 yards), and Brandon Saine (15 receptions, 165 yards, oneTD).  Ohio State has a good defense, but I don’t think it will be enough to contain the Ducks.  In addition, while RB LeGarette Blount is back in the mix for Oregon, Ohio State’s WR Duron Carter and DE Rob Rose are ineligible to play in the Rose Bowl for academic reasons.  Look for the suckeyes to choke in another big game. 

 

3 TCU vs. 6 Boise State:  TCU

 

For starters, I am extremely disappointed with this bowl match-up.  I think both of these teams had a chance of wiping the floor with the big boys.  I would have loved a TCU/Floriduh matchup myself.  Oh well – I’m not going to cry over it like my last name is Tebow.  TCU will beat Boise State easily, and due in large part to their suffocating defense.  Only once have the Horned Frogs surrendered more than 300 yards to a team, and that was 309 to Clemson (collective groan) in week five.  In comparison, Boise State has surrendered 500 yards twice – to Fresno State and Idaho – and nearly allowed Nevada to rally late.  On offense, TCU’s QB Andy Dalton, the fourth-highest rated passer in the nation, is joined by four rushers with at least 500 yards (including Dalton, 543 total yards this season).  On offense, Boise might have to do without Austin Pettis, their second-most prolific WR, because of a lower leg fracture.  All of this points to a blow-out over Boise State and Dalton appearing on 2010 pre-season Heisman watch lists. 

 

5 Florida vs. 4 Cincinnati:  Cincinnati

 

The Cincy boys are mad – real mad – about the departure of Brian Kelly.  While, Cincinnati is already good – Urban Liar even calls his alma mater “SEC caliber” (I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean because I’m pretty sure the Big East has more than one good team) – this anger is going to give them an edge over the Kleenex spokesmodel and the University of Felons.  I predict they take this angst out on the demoralized Crocs, 2008 West Virginia/Chokelahoma Fiesta Bowl style.  The Crocs have been to the Sugar Bowl seven previous times, last playing there in 2001, when they were destroyed by your beloved University of Miami Hurricanes.  The Bearcats will be playing in the Sugar Bowl for the first time.  DE Carlos Dunlap, the narcoleptic drunk-driver and Floriduh’s best pass rusher, could be missing his second consecutive game as Liar attempts to look like he disciplines his players after the Brandon Spikes eye-gouging embarrassment.  Look for Bearcat QB Tony Pike, who has accumulated 2,350 yards and 26 touchdowns – all while sitting out 3 games this season – to light up the scoreboard and avoid Floriduh’s talented secondary.  Avoid looking at the Croc offense unless you are trying to fall asleep.  While the Bearcats will try to show the nation why they should have played for the national championship, Saint Timmy will show the nation the epitome of a has-been.  I just hope New Orleans residents are ready for another flood when Tebow of Nazareth lets loose the waterworks post-game. 

 

2 Texas vs. 1 Alabama:  Texas

 

Despite Texas’ unconvincing “win” over Nebraska, I think they got this.  Blame it on the Heisman curse, but I see ‘Bama going down.  Thanks for the memories, Crimson Tide.  You gave me one of the most wonderful nights this season, but it really isn’t all that impressive to beat a team with a one-man offense, especially when that “man” cries more than me at the end of Steel Magnolias.  On D, both teams are top 10 in the nation for least points allowed per game, yards allowed per game, interceptions, and are #1 and #2 in rushing yards allowed (Texas #1, Alabama #2).  Texas will need their #1 ranked rushing defense to stop Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram (1542 rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs this season). The Longhorns have not allowed a single back 100 yards rushing in any of their 13 games this season.  I seriously doubt the Longhorns can keep Ingram under 100, but I do expect them to contain him to a touchdown.  Speaking of containing touchdowns, Alabama’s secondary will give QB Colt McCoy a challenge all night long.  Alabama has allowed the 6th least passing yards this season and have only given up 8 touchdowns through the air, good for 4th in the nation.  However, I believe McCoy, who went through game 12 with 3328 passing yards this year and a 3-1 TD to interception ratio (27-9), will win this battle.  On special teams, the advantage goes to Texas as well:  Longhorn WR Jordan Shipley is one of the most dangerous return men in college football and averages 13.3 yards per punt return and has two TDs via punt return this year. Texas kicker Hunter Lawrence did not choke on the 46-yard field goal attempt against Nebraska with no time left in the Big 12 Championship.  On the other hand, Alabama kicker Leigh Tiffin failed an extra point attempt against Floriduh.  Texas gets the edge with coaching as well: Brown has an 11-5 bowl record including 5 straight bowl wins over the last 5 seasons. Meanwhile, Saban has lost 3 of his last 4 bowl games and the only win in that period was in the 2007 Independence Bowl against a 6-6 Colorado team.  Look for Texas and Colt McCoy to redeem themselves and ‘Bama to choke like it did against Utah last year.

 

14 Miami vs. 24 Wisconsin:  Miami

 

This will be the fourth meeting between the ‘Canes and Badgers and the first since 1989. Wisconsin's only win in the series came in 1958.  While Miami plays its first in-state bowl game since the 1/1/04 Orange Bowl against FSWho, Wisconsin makes a post-season trip to the Champs Sports Bowl for the second consecutive year.  The Badgers were beat – badly – by FSWho last year.  While Wisconsin’s team has shown improvement in 2009, the result will be the same – a L at the hands of an ACC team.  On offense, the team is led by junior QB Scott Tolzien and Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year John Clay.  Clay topped 100 rushing yards in 7/9 of his final games, including each of his last five, finishing 14th nationally in rushing.  On the other side of the ball, the Badgers’ star is O’Brien Schofield, who is tied for 3rd nationally in tackles for a loss (22.5) and ranked 3rd in the Big Ten with 10 sacks. 

 

The good news? Wisconsin is ranked 66th against the pass at 219.9 ypg and Miami’s defense appeared to improve as the season progressed, holding three of its final four opponents to fewer than 20 points while giving up an average of 264.0 yards over those four games.  This is a very favorable matchup for the ‘Canes – against an offense featuring the run which we can stop and a secondary which Jacory and the receivers can torch between healthy doses of Damien Berry pounding out the tough yards.  You won’t need my jello shots to put a smile on your face during this game, ‘Canes fans.  Cheer on our playmakers and enjoy the ride as Randy and the boys take us to our first 10 win season since 2003.

 

Before I sign off for the off-season, I would like end the season how I started it and leave you with a little song about our 2009 Miami Hurricanes:

 

 

They say we’re young and we don’t know

Shouldn’t have this swag until we grow

Well I don't know if all that's true

'Cause you got me, and baby I got U

 

Babe, I got U babe, I got U babe

 

They say our team spirit won't pay the rent

Before it's earned, our money's all been spent,

If that's so, we don't have a New Year’s Day bowl spot

But at least I'm sure of all the things we got

 

Babe, I got U babe, I got U babe

 

I got new recruits in the spring

I got U to wear 5 national championship rings

And when I'm sad, Jacory’s a clown

And if I get scared, Allen Bailey’s around

 

Don't let them say Travis Benjamin’s hair's too long

'Cause I don't care, with U I can't go wrong

Then put your half of the U hand next to mine

There ain't no ranking Randy and our boys can't climb

 

Babe, I got U babe, I got U babe...

 

I’ll see you at Lot S for the Champs Bowl Game tailgate!  GO ‘CANES!  BEAT THE BADGERS!

Comments

[Fran]

JSQ will read later

[CGNC]

Fran you just want that shirt - LOL

[solarcane]

Then put your half of the U hand next to mine

A&W spewing from the nose LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[86Cane]

86

How come my picks

L.Hankerson
B.Harris

are not on your list????

Posted by: CaneSawMassacre | December 18, 2009 at 07:23 PM

U GOT IT!

[miamimike01]

I have to go with JSQ on all her picks, again. Hate to see this series not come back until August.

[klcanefan]

Hahanice song, Mary! I just might need to try one of your jello shots when KLjr & MiniKL aren't looking... :)

[Cat 5 Cane]

Soup... some are saying to wait till after the bowl game, before picking...

It's not a bad thing!...

[Cat 5 Cane]

I got U.... Babe!

excellent stuff!

[Fran]

No CGNC I waive the shirt I popped in by accident been out doing chores since 3PM LOL

[Cat 5 Cane]

Ohhhh and the girl with the beautiful eyes... Now that's what I call "A Brick House!"... and probably a beautiful girl inside too...

Ohhh, She's a Bric...k....House!

[86Cane]

VOTING ON THE LOF WILL BE NEXT WEEK.

[Old Skool]

JSQ
You're an original, a football version of "I Got You, Babe" That's a first in my book.

Nonetheless, I wouldn't play it too often. I think that's the song that made Chastity question her sex.

[CaneSawMassacre]

SOILER..

I want proof from you on your comment from the last post. You stated something along the lines of, "Shannon admitted R.Lewis was not that good as a starter."

Can you please explain where you got this interview, article, past paper, website????

Anything?

Cause I tried searching for everything Shannon, Ray Lewis, Shannon Quote on Ray Lewis, Ray Lewis not that good in College.. I found nothing.

Now nobody is doubting he was better as a pro then as a CFB athlete.

I think most pro's are better in NFL then in College I just think sometimes they can't shine as well because they are used to too much talent on their side, playing against no talent, having no competition for their spot or no will..

Now we know R.Lewis had no issues with those, so trying to preface your comment.

Yes R.Lewis is a Hall of fame LB, but you could say the same thing about a # of Hurricanes considering college is 4 years and the pro's is soo much longer. It gives you the chance to shine.

Think R.Wayne
R.Lewis
E. Reed
V. Carey
F. Gore
J. Kelley

all had so called "better" careers in the pro's..

If you have the skills, talent, and THE WORK ETHIC, mixed with some luck.. Then you "should get better as a pro".

I mean who says Chad Johnson was better in college?? Tony Romo? Dallas Clark? Devin Hester? Terrel Owens?

I mean if you are great in the pro's you are by default greater then you were in college because NFL IS HARDER!!

[CaneSawMassacre]

JSQ great article...

I rather vote for another year of Mary Knows Football then LOF..

Your articles have been well written, refreshing, and fun all at the same time. Thank you for sharing your wit and wisdom with all of barbarian men weekly.

Salut!

[The Truth]

I'll say this for the 15millionth time:

Stop listening to the pay services. Especially any with ITU in the name. They lie.

So do the kids.

Think about it for a little while and then let it aaaaaaaalllll go. The only thing that matters are the signatures.

[The Truth]

So you got jokes 86??!!

LOL

that's ok cuz that bottle of 18 year next year is going to be the smoothest ever!!

[1caneinatl]

17th!

[86Cane]

that's ok cuz that bottle of 18 year next year is going to be the smoothest ever!!

Posted by: The Truth | December 18, 2009 at 09:25 PM

AJ > MR

[Cat 5 Cane]

Hey... just found Miami/Ohio St playing on ESPN Classic 2003 Festa Bowl... in OT

Miami 24/17

later

[moneycane]

CSM the statement that Randy made about Ray Lewis was in one of his wqam interviews. He didn't say Ray Lewis was terrible in college, just that he was much better in the pro's

[CanesAddiction]

JSQ I like all your picks except for the Texas pick.

I think Bama wins because of TX's one-dimentional offense.

Making picks on college football is tough because 18-22 yr old football players are very inconsistent. Plus there are always the young players that nobody has ever heard of who comes in and has a great game on some random week. Picking pro games is far, far easier because you know what to expect from the players (for the most part).

[solarcane]

canesaw
it was this year in an audio interview about Arthur Brown, and I think maybe Spence having a little setback.

It wasn't a Lewis sucks comment, it was a one sentence reference to Lewis gettng better as he played.

I'm not going to go back and listen to every single Randy audio interview from last year.
You could probably find it means that much to you.

This entire Lewis thing came from
teaxascane makng the comment "how can a guy be better in the pros than he is in college,"
I said
Ask Ray Lewis

Immediately the people on here that don't remember Ray as a freshman over running plays and getting himself out of position, Marley actually making the initial contact on lots and lots of Lewis and Corwin Francis tackles
came out of the woodwork abut how Lewis was a perfect linebacker from the second he got here. Lewis got better and better, and he even made some all american fresman teams but he IS TWICE as good as a pro as he was in college.

[solarcane]

money,
thanks for having my back you posted that while i was typing my reply to canesaw

[solarcane]

I mean if you are great in the pro's you are by default greater then you were in college because NFL IS HARDER!!

Posted by: CaneSawMassacre | December 18, 2009 at 09:06 PM

so the whole how is someone better in the pros than he was in college is stupid,
just like I was trying to point out by saying Ask Ray Lewis

end of subject

[86Cane]

Solar...how U doing and feeling? Snow?

[Nashvillecane]

Joe mcnight being investigated bout driving a car owned by a la car dealer... Wat a surprise???

[CaneSawMassacre]

Ok.... I guess it was your way of answering sarcastically.

I think the person that originally posted that comment was hinting at the fact that he thought this was a slight at the coach's and I did as well.

Barry Jackson doesn't generally make those types of comments since he specifically is referencing their draft potential.

To me it just seemed like you were affirming a notion, but I looked at it the wrong way.. Dis culpe!

[solarcane]

soup,

its sleeting now turning to snow by morning .

it sucks lol!

[86Cane]

its sleeting now turning to snow by morning .

Posted by: solarcane | December 18, 2009 at 10:21 PM

Sounds like FUN!

[solarcane]

canesaw

Calvin pointed this out awhile back.
on the Internet, things that are typed don't always reflect the authors meaning because you cant see the facial expression, or the sarcasm etc.
thats all that whole thing was.

[CaneSawMassacre]

Truth I understand what you are saying but you don't think this could have any negative affect at all for kids that might be cautious now about being recruited by Miami..

I know it is not Miami's fault but this will just be ammunition for other team's and other recruit's to try and persuade kids and we know how unbalanced they are.

And I don't subscribe to any paysite, but I do think this was a conscious effor by ITU to bash Randy for his little recruiting site comment. Which is totall phucked..

Everybody should make a commitment to ban those sites!!!!!!!!!!

[Lurker]

JSQ,

Great article. Super job all season. I like the fact you take chances and go against the grain, like with the Texas pick.

The Tearboy and J12 pictures - priceless.

Go Canes!

[solarcane]

canesaw, este,usafcane

This is what I was talking about
I used to see this lots of times.
perfect defense called, #52 right where he needs to be and

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAfbITfhqNA

I think it was a draw or trap play down near the goal in the same ame where Ray gets caught going the wrong way.
He got really good really fast, but there were lots of college plays where his enthusiasm and speed got exploited.
I don't see it as a pro.

[Drtycane]

i like the UiF pick....fk em....hate to bring up the past but that osu vs mia game was a disaster at the end...freom every angle it was clearly a mfbs call....its all good paybax a biatch

anyone parking in P at the champs bowl? p is for procrastination!!!

[CaneSawMassacre]

Anybody see Avatar tonight????

Curious about your opinions on the movie..

Thanks in advance.

[CaneSawMassacre]

The NCAA should find a way to regulate these sites but they don't give two sh*ts about anything but MONEYYYYYYY!

[solarcane]

a new Canes hi light reel, edited down from rusty and spoonersteet stuff

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJ6P6-8XmJo

[moneycane]

CSM if Randy can weather the 5-7, Nix as OC, you're going to be fired after 4 games storm, then ITU or whatever can be weathered as well. We gotta wait till the ink dries and take if from there. If words meant everything then Cookie would be a gator ect. ect.

[solarcane]

awwwwwwwwwwwwwgeezz
I just saw the "GO FROGS girls picture above

thats just cruel

[CaneSawMassacre]

Money I know he can weather it, I just think something needs to be done.

[solarcane]

I'm Skeemin

this ones for my bwah Calvin!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm_u7jniA60

[moneycane]

Yeah but what can be done know, especially with ESPN being involved now. It is what it is

[canesteeler]

CSM with the money college coaches are being paid these days and the influx of recruiting sites, recruiting will always be nasty, dirty and whoreish. Just worry about the ones who sign on the doted line and the ones who get away just get away. IT IS WHAT IT IS

[solarcane]

when telestrators go bad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwAG8fvRIHo

[Cat 5 Cane]

Hey Steeler... nice pic but U need to work on your U....lol

But it's all good!

[The Truth]

Solars dead on about 52. Great college LB but far from the monster he turned into as a pro. He learned out to watch film instead of soley relying on instinct. He was twice the player after 2 NFL seasons than he was as an all American here. He's 5 times the player now and he's already way past his peak.

The only thing I will add though is ALL the great players get trucked. They all over run plays and they all make the wrong read - if they didn't, no one would be scoring any TD's.

[solarcane]

thanks Truth,

Lewis is one of my favorite players here ever.
I knew he was going to be a superstar, but at first he would be so anxious to make the play the other OCs baited him, but he learned fast.

It's tough as heck to be objective on here about anything.

[The Truth]

And yes CSM, it does Make Miami look bad - that's the point.

You have no clue as to how dirty it can get - like say, Lane Kiffen playing Christopher Stock and Fat Rudy to write up a bad piece, dirty.

Oh yes - THAT dirty.

I'm not saying that's what happened. I'm
not saying Lane Kiffen would do that. I AM saying it is a plausible and probable scenario for many an article written on many a internets recruiting site. That's no joke.

Then you have some kids or coaches with big $$$ paying these guys to promote them.

It's not limited to anti Miami. The sites are whores. Attention and money whores.

Miami doesn't offer and contributions to these sites so they have no loyalty to this program. They can and do write whateverthefucktheywant.

Just responding to a write up like that gives it some justification.

It's all so stupid. These are KIDS. BOYS you wouldn't want your daughter around and people turn them into gods for a year or so.

They don't care about you. They don't care about Miami. They care about themselves. ITU, Rivals, Scout, etc...same thing.

Hell - Lemming absolutely HATES Miami as a ND fan. With all the pull he has don't you think his "evaluations" might just be slanted a tad if a kid is Miami bound?

They are poison. All of them.

Worry about the kids that sign and wear that U. That's it.

[CanesAddiction]

About Ray Lewis, it makes perfect sense that he would be a better player in the pro's than he was in college.

Pro players are allowed so much more prep time than CFB players. CFB players are allowed a mere 20 hrs per week with the coaches (3 of those hrs are the game on Sat too) and have to make the grades to be eligible to play at the same time as get ready for a game.

Pro's have no such limitations. With so much more time to concentrate on football, why wouldn't Ray be much better as a pro?

It's just this sort of thinking by NFL scouts that make measurables and physical dominance so important to a player's draft value.

[Captain Optimist aka Cavaleer]

JSQ, sensational photos. lol

I agree with your picks except for TX, as someone else said. After what Neb showed, and with nearly a month to prepare, I don't think TX has enough options out of that one dimensional offense to score enough.

Bama's much better balanced on both sides.

But anything can happen. This game will truly show how skilled Mack Brown is as a HC.