I need you to put down your beverage, stop multi-tasking, take a deep breath and try to focus. Ready? OK, here we go:
When reviewing the 2009 season, name four specific ways the Hurricanes MUST improve in 2010 to be successful?
You would be correct If you said:
1. Improve their interception ratio (for/against).
2. Improve their QB sack ratio (for/against).
3. Commit fewer penalties; and
4. Improve first quarter offensive production/scoring.
Sure, I know what you are saying: "Any team could claim these general goals to improve their performance from one season to the next." But let's break down the numbers on each of these issues one by one to prove our point as it relates specifically to the University of Miami football team.
Here are the stats and the facts according to the UM web site, www.theacc.com and www.ncaa.com:
Interceptions: On defense Miami had only 9 interceptions for 98 yards and one touchdown in 2009. In the ACC only NCST and Duke had fewer (8). Clemson led the conference with 21 INTs and UNC was second with 19. Miami ranked 87th in the NCAA in this category in 2009.
Yet, on offense the Hurricanes threw 17 interceptions for a stunning 447 return yards and 4 TDs. That ranks 105th in the NCAA. Only 7 teams threw more INTs than the Hurricanes did in 2009.
If you did the math then you realize that results in an INT ratio difference of 8 INTs, 350 yards of field position and 3 TDs for the opposition. That is a huge obstacle to overcome for any offense, much less a young Miami team with a first year starter at QB and a thin, weak and often wounded offensive line.
Every football fan knows what a huge momentum changer any turnover is and a pick six can take the breath right out of a team and a home crowd. Miami's unfortunate loss to North Carolina in Chapel Hill last year can be directly pinned to Jacory's four INTs, two that went for TDs of 77 and 44 yards. In Miami's loss to Clemson at The Shark Jacory threw three INTs and another pick six with just nine minutes left in the fourth quarter that shifted the momentum, and eventually the game, to the Tigers.
In 2010, that cannot happen if Miami is to be successful. Fewer interceptions thrown by Jacory Harris and more interceptions by the Hurricane defense will certainly change the momentum and very possibly the outcome of many games in 2010. As many of you already know the best way to generate more interceptions in by generating a more effective and successful pass rush, which leads us to...
Sacks: Miami had a measly 24 sacks on defense in 2009. They gave up 11 more, or about one per game, by surrendering 35. Only Maryland and Virginia gave up more sacks in the ACC while GT, BC and Clemson did much better at protecting their QB as all three gave up under 20 sacks all year.
Yes, 2009 was not a fun year to be Jacory Harris. Just ask his thumb, knee, ankle and shoulder. Poor Jacory got smacked around so often that some Hurricane fans would turn their heads not to look at the brutal beating he was taking. With a make-shift OL, numerous injuries and "The Human Turnstile" at RT it is no reason to wonder why Jacory feared for his life on every play.
And sacks are a much bigger deal than you might imagine. Not only do they often result in a significant loss of yardage and a change in field position but they also reduce scoring opportunities. Recent research in the NFL shows that teams average scoring on about 35% of their offensive possessions. However, when there is a defensive sack during the drive the scoring percentage is cut in half to around 17%. That is huge impact on a team's scoring chances.
Forget about "dominating the line of scrimmage." Miami's offensive and defensive lines have to do two things in 2010: reduce the number of sacks allowed and increase the number of sacks recorded by the defense. If they do the difference could be significant in the outcome of several games this season.
Penalties: Limiting or reducing the number of penalties a team commits can be directly linked to three things: discipline, discipline, discipline. The Miami Hurricanes will need more of it in 2010 if they are to be successful and capture their first ever ACC title.
In 2009 UM committed a whopping 93 penalties the most of any team in the ACC. Their 703 penalty yards against were an average of 54 yards/game and third highest in the conference. It also ranked 94th nationally in the NCAA. That is simply not good enough for a Randy Shannon coached team.
Meanwhile, Miami's opponents committed only 68 penalties (25 fewer) for just 581 yards (122 fewer) for an average of around 44 yards/game. Miami lost 10 yards per game in penalty yards versus their opponents. Like turnovers and sacks, penalties are huge drive killers and momentum changers.
In 2010 Head Coach Randy Shannon must ensure that Miami is disciplined and avoids costly penalties at critical times if they are to win games against the six top 25 ranked opponents on their schedule.
First Quarter Scoring: In case you were napping or hiding under a rock somewhere last year, Miami's offense improved significantly in 2009. New offensive coordinator Mark "Miracle" Whipple had a huge impact on the Hurricanes offensive scheme and production. He made it really easy to forget Patrick "I Ain't The Fix" Nix.
Miami improved to 31st Nationally in scoring offense and 45th in total offense last season in spite of a weak offensive line and a first year starting quarterback. The Hurricanes were 4th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense in the ACC. Considering from where they had come in 2008, not bad at all.
The Hurricanes scored 394 points, or an average of just over 30 points/game. That is an increase from 352 points and 27 points/game in 2008. However most of those points came in the third and fourth quarters. Miami scored 175 first half points and 219 in the second half during the 2009 season.
How many times did you sit in the stands at The Shark during the first quarter of games last year and say to yourself or even out loud "When is this team going to show up" or even worse "What team is that?" Hurricane fans even booed the home team during the first quarter of the Duke game last year.
Slow starts and three and outs seemed to be the norm early in games in 2009. The first quarter saw Miami score their fewest points: 79. Frustration (Clemson) and at times desperation (VT and UNC) would then lead to sacks, penalties and turnovers. That is a a recipe for disaster.
This season the Hurricanes must score early and often to take the pressure off of themselves and to allow the Miami defense to put the pressure on the opposing team.
Miami must avoid the three costly negatives of penalties, sacks and turnovers on offense.
Miami must sack the opposing QB more often and pick off more passes than they did last year on defense.
That my friends is the recipe for success in 2010.
Watching the Vid...
just from the quickie vid... Whipple looks to be veryyyy comfortable in the game and showed quality play.
When I went to the game and watched, I thought AJ had a better performance but Whipple on the video showed me more... and I feel fine with either one as aback up!!!
But IMO... Randy can't let it slide, like last year and must give these guys some playing time to adjust to prime time action during the year.
Posted by: Cat 5 Cane | April 17, 2010 at 06:46 PM
Later
Alright wusses... U can come back now!...LOL
Posted by: Cat 5 Cane | April 17, 2010 at 06:49 PM
alright everyone he's gone...the coast is clear
Posted by: SlingBlade | April 17, 2010 at 06:50 PM