Anaylyze This: The Miami Hurricanes' 2009 Season

I need you to put down your beverage, stop multi-tasking, take a deep breath and try to focus.  Ready?  OK, here we go: 

When reviewing the 2009 season, name four specific ways the Hurricanes MUST improve in 2010 to be successful? 

You would be correct If you said:

1. Improve their interception ratio (for/against).

2. Improve their QB sack ratio (for/against).

3. Commit fewer penalties; and

4. Improve first quarter offensive production/scoring.

Sure, I know what you are saying: "Any team could claim these general goals to improve their performance from one season to the next."  But let's break down the numbers on each of these issues one by one to prove our point as it relates specifically to the University of Miami football team. 

Here are the stats and the facts according to the UM web site, www.theacc.com and www.ncaa.com: 

Interceptions:  On defense Miami had only 9 interceptions for 98 yards and one touchdown in 2009.  In the ACC only NCST and Duke had fewer (8).  Clemson led the conference with 21 INTs and UNC was second with 19.  Miami ranked 87th in the NCAA in this category in 2009.

Yet, on offense the Hurricanes threw 17 interceptions for a stunning 447 return yards and 4 TDs.  That ranks 105th in the NCAA.  Only 7 teams threw more INTs than the Hurricanes did in 2009.

If you did the math then you realize that results in an INT ratio difference of 8 INTs, 350 yards of field position and 3 TDs for the opposition.  That is a huge obstacle to overcome for any offense, much less a young Miami team with a first year starter at QB and a thin, weak and often wounded offensive line.

Every football fan knows what a huge momentum changer any turnover is and a pick six can take the breath right out of a team and a home crowd.  Miami's unfortunate loss to North Carolina in Chapel Hill last year can be directly pinned to Jacory's four INTs, two that went for TDs of 77 and 44 yards.  In Miami's loss to Clemson at The Shark Jacory threw three INTs and another pick six with just nine minutes left in the fourth quarter that shifted the momentum, and eventually the game, to the Tigers.

In 2010, that cannot happen if Miami is to be successful.  Fewer interceptions thrown by Jacory Harris and more interceptions by the Hurricane defense will certainly change the momentum and very possibly the outcome of many games in 2010.  As many of you already know the best way to generate more interceptions in by generating a more effective and successful pass rush, which leads us to...

Sacks:  Miami had a measly 24 sacks on defense in 2009.  They gave up 11 more, or about one per game, by surrendering 35.  Only Maryland and Virginia gave up more sacks in the ACC while GT, BC and Clemson did much better at protecting their QB as all three gave up under 20 sacks all year.

Yes, 2009 was not a fun year to be Jacory Harris.  Just ask his thumb, knee, ankle and shoulder.  Poor Jacory got smacked around so often that some Hurricane fans would turn their heads not to look at the brutal beating he was taking.  With a make-shift OL, numerous injuries and "The Human Turnstile" at RT it is no reason to wonder why Jacory feared for his life on every play. 

And sacks are a much bigger deal than you might imagine.  Not only do they often result in a significant loss of yardage and a change in field position but they also reduce scoring opportunities.  Recent research in the NFL shows that teams average scoring on about 35% of their offensive possessions.  However, when there is a defensive sack during the drive the scoring percentage is cut in half to around 17%.  That is huge impact on a team's scoring chances.

Forget about "dominating the line of scrimmage."  Miami's offensive and defensive lines have to do two things in 2010: reduce the number of sacks allowed and increase the number of sacks recorded by the defense.  If they do the difference could be significant in the outcome of several games this season.

Penalties:  Limiting or reducing the number of penalties a team commits can be directly linked to three things: discipline, discipline, discipline.  The Miami Hurricanes will need more of it in 2010 if they are to be successful and capture their first ever ACC title. 

In 2009 UM committed a whopping 93 penalties the most of any team in the ACC.  Their 703 penalty yards against were an average of 54 yards/game and third highest in the conference.  It also ranked 94th nationally in the NCAA.  That is simply not good enough for a Randy Shannon coached team.

Meanwhile, Miami's opponents committed only 68 penalties (25 fewer) for just 581 yards (122 fewer) for an average of around 44 yards/game.  Miami lost 10 yards per game in penalty yards versus their opponents.  Like turnovers and sacks, penalties are huge drive killers and momentum changers. 

In 2010 Head Coach Randy Shannon must ensure that Miami is disciplined and avoids costly penalties at critical times if they are to win games against the six top 25 ranked opponents on their schedule.

First Quarter Scoring: In case you were napping or hiding under a rock somewhere last year, Miami's offense improved significantly in 2009.  New offensive coordinator Mark "Miracle" Whipple had a huge impact on the Hurricanes offensive scheme and production.   He made it really easy to forget Patrick "I Ain't The Fix" Nix.

Miami improved to 31st Nationally in scoring offense and 45th in total offense last season in spite of a weak offensive line and a first year starting quarterback.  The Hurricanes were 4th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense in the ACC.  Considering from where they had come in 2008, not bad at all.

The Hurricanes scored 394 points, or an average of just over 30 points/game.  That is an increase from 352 points and 27 points/game in 2008.  However most of those points came in the third and fourth quarters.  Miami scored 175 first half points and 219 in the second half during the 2009 season. 

How many times did you sit in the stands at The Shark during the first quarter of games last year and say to yourself or even out loud "When is this team going to show up" or even worse "What team is that?"  Hurricane fans even booed the home team during the first quarter of the Duke game last year.

Slow starts and three and outs seemed to be the norm early in games in 2009.  The first quarter saw Miami score their fewest points: 79.  Frustration (Clemson) and at times desperation (VT and UNC) would then lead to sacks, penalties and turnovers.  That is a a recipe for disaster.

This season the Hurricanes must score early and often to take the pressure off of themselves and to allow the Miami defense to put the pressure on the opposing team. 

Miami must avoid the three costly negatives of penalties, sacks and turnovers on offense.

Miami must sack the opposing QB more often and pick off more passes than they did last year on defense.

That my friends is the recipe for success in 2010.

Comments

[HearAcane]

Memo to Fighting Ibis.......Dateline Earth........Football is a "Socialist Sport"

All for the good of each other...........with a common goal.

You should be a fan of golf...LOL

[SOUP]

DZ8...I just checked and I do not have your article in my email. Please re-send to:

canespace86@aol.com

[SOUP]

DrewZ2...you are good to go for next week Wednesday. I'll email U with the details.

[Montreal-Cane]

Ohio State knows next step is national title...http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/11647/ohio-state-knows-next-step-is-national-title

I hope we prove them wrong!

Revenge!!!

[Lurker]

The only stat UM fans care about for 2009 is: 9-3...12-0...
... Miami will be forced to go independent like Notre Dame and form their own TV Network.

Posted by: 86Cane | April 16, 2010 at 06:23 PM

Ok now we're talking.

By the way, I say you brought your "A" game for the blob article.

[CaneSawMassacre]

Hey everybody are you there???

[SOUP]

By the way, I say you brought your "A" game for the blob article.

Posted by: CanesCanesCanes | April 16, 2010 at 07:15 PM

Not good enough. Here's my "B" game blog:

The 2010 Canes are the best team ever on earth. They would beat the 1986, 87, 89, 91 and 2001 Canes teams combined by a score of 100-0.

The Canes will win every game for the next 10 years by over 50 points.

The 2010 Canes have the best player at every position over every team in the NCAA.

The Canes have the best head coach that has ever coached college football. Bear Bryant, Joe Paterno and Urban Meyer are all punks and ALL other coaches be damned.

Why? I don't know. I have no facts or stats to back it up but that is MY OPINION!

There, how is my B game?

Prolly 500 comments on that one!

[CGNC]

PhillyCane | April 16, 2010 at 03:55 PM

LOL - no way. He was the most entertaining goon on the goon squad....I am in hockey mode

[CaneSawMassacre]

I'd agree def. the best team we've ever fielded ...

[SOUP]

UM 4, UNC 1

Bottom of the second, Canes at bat...

[SOUP]

CGNC...what U got on the hockey front?

[PhillyCane]

A goon I would not wana mess with.. Flyers and Devils tied at 2 in the 2nd

[86Cane]

UM 4, UNC 3

Bottom of the third, Canes at bat...

[86Cane]

Flyers 3, Devils 3

Ottawa 1, Pittsburgh 1

[86Cane]

UM 5, UNC 3

Top of the fourth, UNC at bat...

[86Cane]

UM 6, UNC 4

Top of the 5th...

[CGNC]

Pens win 2-1 :-D

Flyers Devils still 3-3

Blackhawks 1 - Thrashers 0

[CGNC]

Canesteeler - are you ok after watching that game??? LOL had everything BUT goals

[Sebastian]

Devoss 1-3 1 HR 1 RBI
Grandal 2-3 1 double 1 HR 3 RBIs
Martinez 3-3 1 HR 1 RBI

End of 5

UNC-5
`Canes-7

[CGNC]

Devils 4 - Flyers 3 3 mins left

[CGNC]

Devils win 5-3

[solarcane]

" It is chalked full of stats and facts but nobody sees that as important. They would rather just state their own opinion over and over again about the same things that are completely unrelated to the lead article."

Welcome to my world,
That's exactly why people like OGV, CGNC,Estaban,bg1906 and I don't spend hours and hours of volunteered time writing here every week like the first year.

Why bother when someone is going to skip the article, try and win a tee shirt, utter their take on what's wrong with America and split?

Six and I spent three weeks of email every night getting a ten part article put together and about 5 people bothered to read the first part and respond ( thanks you five)

[Lurker]

If that's your "B" game, I don't even want to know what your "C" game looks like

How's this for a bold statement: If Jacory throws less than 8 picks (assuming healthy all season), we go undefeated. There - I said it.

[solarcane]

GT's baseball team beat UGA 25 to 3 I think it was the other night.

That's what true bitter rivalry is all about!

[Sebastian]

End of 6

No changes

N.C.-5
`Canes-7

[solarcane]

How's this for a bold statement: If Jacory throws less than 8 picks (assuming healthy all season), we go undefeated. There - I said it.

cx3 thats a good call, i think you would be right.
I think Jacory will manage 8 picks by the 8th game easy though

[Lurker]

I think Jacory will manage 8 picks by the 8th game easy though

Posted by: solarcane | April 16, 2010 at 10:25 PM

Hope not. It's not about accuracy with him. It's a mentality that made him want to get it all with one throw...and I'm hoping his screwed up thumb had something to do with it as well. This year will tell us a lot about him.

[Sebastian]

Encinosa with 2 hitless innings of relief to keep the score after 7 innings of play at

UNC-5
`Canes-7

[solarcane]

cx3
I think Jacory being a year farther into a college career will have matured him into knowing he doesn't have to try and hit a home run every series he gets in there.
Having one of the best group of running backs in the nation will also help him spread the points around.

I think he will lead the ACC in ints but I think he will lead the ACC in tds, and passing yards too

[Sebastian]

No way is he going to lead the ACC in ints this year

Sorry solar I usually stay out of your business, but I had to say I disagree with that statement

A 2nd year under the same system will make a huge difference. He does not hit double figure ints this year

Now me back to staying out of your guys business

[Sebastian]

Miranda pitched a solid 8th

On our way to the money inning

With a 7-5 lead

[NomadCane]

86,

I received the DVD. Thanks for mailing it!

[Sebastian]

Relief pitching was solid tonight with Encinosa and Miranda combining to pitch 4 innings giving up 1 hit 0 runs 2BBs and 6Ks

All hitters going long ball were DeVoss, Grandal and Martinez going 6-12 1 2B 3 HRs 5RBIs

A nice way to start the series NC-5 Miami-7

Its a `Canes life to me

[Montreal-Cane]

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Already the buzz has started about Terrelle Pryor winning the Heisman.

It sounds like JH last year...

[solarcane]

sebas
Its nothing to do with the system, it's Jacory is a born gunslinger
I love it. He can lead the nation in picks if he outscores the opponent every game. I wouldn't care at all.

Joe Namath at Alabama and with the Jets never feared how many picks he was going to throw, he knew he was going to come out on top.
One of Joe's receivers said "When Namath threw the ball my way I was going to do one of two things, score a TD or make a tackle."

I think Jacory feels the same way.
I bet the deep wide outs had to practice tackling this spring.

Jacory will throw plenty of picks, some will be because receivers break off routes some will be because the ACC has some outstanding defensive backs, some will be because Whipple gets carried away with trying to go deep when there isn't a go deep.

....and another thing, you can disagree with me anytime, I enjoy what you bring here since you started posting.

[CGNC]

LOL Solar our receivers at the Tar Hole game just watched the other guy with the pick run off

[Sebastian]

I thought we forced the ball to LaHank to many times later in the year.

I was looking for more mismatch situations with the Blur in short type plays and let him just run

Defenses knew what we were going to do before we even broke the huddle.

Thats why I say we need a do it all back that can be in their for all 3 downs and play 4 quarters

IMO he has to make the Byrdman his #1 option and that will cut down his ints bigtime

[86Cane]

Solar...It's like U could post a blog in 30 seconds that says: "GO CANES" and get as many comments and/or hits as a blog that U take 8 hours to research and write with good stats, facts and statements.

GO CANES!

[86Cane]

Nomad...No problem, my pleasure. Just another feature from the FULL service blog!

[solarcane]

cg,
I was pizzed at our receivers not trying to tackle, but I was really pizzed at Whipple for trying to prove he could beat them deep

When 1 defensive back has 170 interception return yds in 3 and half qtrs, maybe you should pick on someone else .

[Lurker]

86 - got the DVD, thanks.

Solar and Sebas57 good comments all around. We don't have to agree, do we?

Anyway, Solar, so you're saying J12 has more of a Favre mentality. My only thought is that right now is how his approach is developing. He's smart enough to know that while he has an accurate arm, and I think a strong enough arm, it's not Favre strong where you can just throw it into tight spaces on a rope. He's touch most of the time, which means he needs good reads. That's what I'm hoping he really improves at, making accurate reads and then making good decisions on risk vs reward.

[86Cane]

Six and I spent three weeks of email every night getting a ten part article put together and about 5 people bothered to read the first part and respond ( thanks you five)

Posted by: solarcane | April 16, 2010 at 10:17 PM

Greedy bastards! Or is it Rat bastids?

[Lurker]

My only thought is that right now is how his approach is developing.

Sounds stupid, what I said.

I mean, his approach, his mindset towards the game and the QB position, is developing now.

[solarcane]

sebas I agree with everything you just posted.

I think we will be scary with all our weapons on offense, Jacory only has to manage the games for real this season, he has plenty of help if the line plays well.

[Lurker]

Like 86 said, the article is about 1000 times better than anything S has written, ever. But let's be honest, that's setting the bar really low. Seriously, though, well done. Sets the parameters for what a succesful run will look like next fall.

[solarcane]

cx3
I knew what you meant
and yeah Jacory is as intelligent as he is athletic.
As cliche as it sounds, if he just manages the game and gets the ball in his playmakers hands he's golden.
He tried too hard to make up for a shyt o line and some weird azz play calling last season.

[Lurker]

That's a good assesment. Frankly, I still haven't gotten over the last freaking series of the year. Still don't understand the play selection on the last four plays. Anyway, water under the bridge and I'm out.

[Sebastian]

If Berry doesnt pick up the blocking schemes. in no way is he going to see the time that most on here are thinking he will. That very well could fall to either MJames or LaMil

It was very disturbing to know that when Berry came in the game they knew we werent going to throw the ball.

Mill. hasnt played a down of college football but he sure seems to be the back that Devo wants in his system

[solarcane]

This year there is no doctor in the house

This year it's dog eat dog, you don't contribute you don't see many frequent flier miles.

[Fighting Ibis]

Pay Randy his gotdamn money!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jUBbCgMWmE&feature=related