Five Star Follies

Last year the well known and frequently followed college recruiting service Rivals.com published an article in which they revealed the names of players that made the Rivals "five-star" football recruiting lists over the previous five years (2007-2011).

The story was written by the talented Steve Megargee, one of the National feature writers for Rivals who researched the football recruiting classes from 2007 to 2011 and gave a brief analysis of each players success or failure at the college level and in some cases also provided their NFLU draft status.

We thought it would be interesting to do a more in depth statistical analysis on his reporting so that we could try to get a "big picture" overview of just how good a predictor the five-star high school recruit designation was at predicting which players would be successful at the college level.

So we start off this series of five articles by framing the big picture around the lists of players that received the coveted five star label over the last five years.  In the coming days we will examine each class more closely in our series of consecutive articles.

Here is what our initial summary analysis found:

• Between 2007 and 2011 a small and select group of only 144 players received the five star rating from Rivals.com.
• The 2009 class was the largest with 33 players making the list.
• The 2010 and 2011 classes were the smallest with 26 players each.
• In 2008 there were 30 players that received the five star label while in 2007 there were 29.

So out of the 1 million or so high school football players in the U.S. in any given year only around 28 players (144/5) earned the five star designation on average over the five year period.

Based on this fact alone one would assume that almost every player receiving the prestigious five star designation by one of the top recruiting services in the Country would be considered a "can't miss prospect" that was soon going to win national awards and National Championships, right?

And, as usual, you would assume wrong.  In fact, you would be very, very wrong.  Which is why it is usually foolish and at times even dangerous to make assumptions based on opinions instead of analyzing the facts.

Which is why we are here to debunk the myths and to provide you the facts.  Here are some of the initial facts we found by studying the Rivals.com five star recruiting lists over five years (and we hope that you are sitting down as you read this!):

• Out of the 144 players designated as five star studs only 36 players or about about 25% went on to becomes what most people would consider to be stars or impact players at the college level.
• That means that approximately 108 players or about 75% of the five star recruits over the five year period were just solid, decent or average players who did not have a major impact on their teams success for various reasons.
• As of last count at least 19 players (13%) transferred from the original school they signed a LOI with on National Signing Day.
• From the list we found that 18 players (13%) suffered major injuries that had a significant negative impact on their careers.

So what that tells us is that only 1 out of every 4 five star recruits will go on to even bigger things in college or beyond that in the NFLU. It also shows us that 2 out of every 10 five star players will either transfer to another school or suffer a serious injury that impacts their college career.

So before you go counting all of your five star recruits before or after National Signing Day you should be cautious not to go predicting their individual success or their team's potential accomplishments.

Simply put, counting on five star recruits to be difference makers has been shown to not be such a good predictor of a team's success after all.

Related articles

Note To Recruits: U Snooze, U Lose

Behind The Recruiting Rankings

Top 25 Recruiting Classes Headed into National Signing Day

College football recruiting 2013: Feeling confident? Beware the class of 2009

Comments

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

Not the end of the world for us, it only means we're going to pursue Sony Michel even harder.

I work with the kid's cousin and i can tell you all he speaks of is Miami, of course it doesn't mean he is a cane lock.

[orange 'n green in the vein]

/\/\/\

No! James Cooley! Mario Cristobal! Monster! Three heads! Like a giant mutant of recruiting that is mostly from Miami and partly from Philly by way of Jersey!

[The Dude]

Golden missed on what should have been a gimme. I can't help but wonder $EC?

[DeployedDiehardCane]

PHUUUUUUUUUCK! Getting Thomas and some DTs would make up for this but who knows now. Welcome to the U, Gus the Bus, lol. Meant that sarcastically. This sucks.

[The Dude]

OGV=really funny.

[jerry]

It looks real bag for Us on Wed...... Maybe we get two of the guys we want and Goldi will be left with a couple of open Scholies... for 2 star guys....

[thirstybuzzardcane]

If you grew up a fan of a college and if they offered you a scholarship to play football, wouldn't you take it? I know I would in a heart beat!!!!!

[The Dude]

If Golden gets shut out...

[TonyCane]

And a few others, Collins:

Jonathan Colon
Mike Williams
Pat Devlin

[RBLCane]

WELCOME TO ARKANSAS WHERE THE MEN ARE MEN AND THE SHEEP ARE NERVOUS

Posted by: canezilla | February 04, 2013 at 10:37 PM

LOL! Really needed that!

[CaneRock]

Welcome to the U, Gus the Bus, lol.

Posted by:DeployedDiehardCane | February 04, 2013 at 10:44 PM

LMAO!

[Canesfan_1]

OGV

Does everything have to be about bashing the coaches. That crap gets old, man. It's like you're gloating. Also what's up with bringing up Shamwow and this had nothing o do with ice. Nothing.

I'm sure this is us a big disappointment to most of us, it is to me, but no reason to rub our noses in it.

No offense, just had to get that out. On to the next one, this is over, best of luck to him.

[Sean Spence is a Beast!!!]

If Golden gets shut out...

Posted by: The Dude | February 04, 2013 at 10:46 PM

Then he moves on to 2014, no biggie!

[orange 'n green in the vein]

Only when they suck as much as they do right now C_1. When they do something good, they get credit. Tonight, they get jibed for setting fire to the fence.

Mcginns never got back with those career win percentages did he? Should head to head recruiting battles count double or triple? You're right, they should be exponential.

[The Dude]

Canesfan. Don't give him the power. OGV has his opinions. And they are funny. We all have our opinions. Let's please not start the whole you hurt my feelings when you post meran things debate again. Please?

[The Dude]

*mean things

[CoCane]

I knew he would pick Arkansas when they asked him about them & smiled really hard. Judging from the way he talked about never getting outside of south florida before. He basically committed to the "U" just to get his name out there. He wasn't a true cane. Fukk'em. He's from the crib so I hope he balls out but he just made a dumb choice imo...

This is a bad start leading up to wednsday though. I hope it goes better in a couple of days.

[TonyCane]

Then again, it is still an oral commitment.

Perhaps he'll have second thoughts in 24 hours.

[Montreal-Cane]

We got Kirklanded tonight the biggest mistake
this recruiting season from the U coaches...They didn't have to create this saga just before NSD Next time shut the f up.

[CaneRock]

WELP!, look at the bright side, at least we didn't get stuck with John Franklin.

[The Dude]

I honestly don't route for the kid. I route for his career to suck and for us to punish him. I want us to make him regret his choice for the rest of his life. I want him to get punked like the old Canes would punk him. I want him to have to move to Arkansas because he can't show his face in Miami. Just being honest.

[orange 'n green in the vein]

I really would like to abide by The Dude here.

Nice posts are easy when you're talking about the best team in school history, not easy when talking about one of the worst.

TC, great point, you can never lose something you never truly had in the first place so once again nothing is finished until the LOI is in the fax tray.

[RBLCane]

Then again, it is still an oral commitment.

Perhaps he'll have second thoughts in 24 hours.

Posted by: TonyCane | February 04, 2013 at 10:54 PM

Sooo you're saying there's a chaaance!

LOL

[thirstybuzzardcane]

What a stupid______!........Collins would of been 1 injury away from being the starter if he signed with us. What a stupid mistake this was for him!!......why can't these kids have the mentality of Frank Gore

[The Dude]

Lol RBL

[JCane]

I used to follow the recruiting way more closely, but watching what a bunch of 18 y/o boys pick from second to second ain't worth it. Hopefully most of the guys AG wants he'll get, and the rest, good luck. Not with the Canes, I don't need to worry about him any more. Let's see how Coach G does with the guys he gets over the next few days, what happens with the NCAA, and see how the next two years go.

Otherwise, instead of wondering when the U will be top 10 again, why don't we give more respect and attention to the guys on the hardwood who are top 10 now?! They now have gotten the respect they wanted, are as high as they're going to get by way of leapfrogging imo, and now have to keep winning while hoping for teams in front of them to lose. A loss and down they go. Just win, and don't worry about the rest, as there is an ACC and NCAA tnmt. to look for seeding with, with the first one giving an opportunity to guarantee a very high seed if they pull it out (a 1 or 2 is quite possible). This week we've got both #1 and #3 IU and UMich playing a tough Ohio State team, and #4 Duke will go against the Wolfpack. A Duke loss would put the Dukies further back in the ACC race(they've already lost twice) and even give the U some breathing room with a loss in Duke later this season (although I don't want to see this team get too comfortable and blow a game like upcoming BC tomorrow). If memory serves, although NCState has lost 4 in ACC play this season, only one has come at home for them (to the U in a nailbiter). For the U, going on the road to Duke will even be a better experience to prepare for the tnmt, as this team so far has been superb at home and just good enough on the road.

What a season. Savor it.....

Now, I hope Wednesday is f...ing awesome. Thanks for all of the info. from OC, Hassan, etc.

[mi@mic@ne]

Beautiful campus? What is this a beauty contest.. seriously.. what happened to talking about being a number 1 draft pick from a proven winner? whats going on in our world?

[The Dude]

Great post JCane.

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Guess this kid doesn't want to be in Dukes shadow!!!!!

[CoCane]

TonyCane,

Collins knew he would be the 1-2 punch with Duke next year. His family would be able to come & see him play every home game. HE STILL CHOSE ARKANSAS. He didn't want to share the spotlight, getting sold on the you'll be our featured back pitch. He's selfish. Fukk'em. More room for Sony Michel...

[The Dude]

OGV, no more about the defense. Ha ha. We are trying to delete those memories and when you post about it, it brings flash backs. I have PTSD from No D. You're posts are counteracting with my medication.

[Ohio_Cane]

If Golden gets shut out...

Posted by: The Dude | February 04, 2013 at 10:46 PM
------------------------------------------

I'm sorry, but, EL OH EL........

Seriously? Just cuz of this ONE guy?

[86Cane]

Soooey, sooooey! Love me some hogolicious girls. Somewhere Phil Collins is drumming a mad solo. And somewhere else Alex Collins, is well not so much?

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Ohio Cane, hope that wasn't one of your silence you knew about.....if it was, we are in big trouble on Wed. Say something to make me feel better...lol

[The Dude]

That was like a fill in the blank thing Ohio.

[thirstybuzzardcane]

I'm having chest pains right now!!!!!!!!!

[The Dude]

I hope Collins gets a haircut and some sh*tkickers 86. For his sake. Can we send him some sh*tkickers? On behalf of Miami fans?

[Ohio_Cane]

Ohio Cane, hope that wasn't one of your silence you knew about.....if it was, we are in big trouble on Wed. Say something to make me feel better...lol

Posted by: thirstybuzzardcane | February 04, 2013 at 11:07 PM
---------------------------------------------

LOL!

No, he was not one of them. Relax, bro!

[Ohio_Cane]

Ohio Cane, hope that wasn't one of your silence you knew about.....if it was, we are in big trouble on Wed. Say something to make me feel better...lol

Posted by: thirstybuzzardcane | February 04, 2013 at 11:07 PM
---------------------------------------------

LOL!

No, he was not one of them. Relax, bro!

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | February 04, 2013 at 11:10 PM
------------------------------------------

He was actually one of my homer picks. All signs pointed to Miami.

[The Dude]

If not sh*tkickers can we get him some overalls? If we all chip in?

[orange 'n green in the vein]

The Dude, like I said before, I was dedicating it for Keef, therefore I've almost blanked out the newfangled Miami three man rush play-call coaching tactic when you can't generate pressure with less than six to give up those behind the chains third and longs to UVA every year. Oh and dropping your best DT in a zone blitz on an obvious passing down so he can try and hip check the RB before the catch and get a good view of him and he runs to the endzone, can't forget that one . . . unless--

THIS ONE'S FOR KEEF ALSO!

[Montreal-Cane]

OGV tonight i have the right to be negative...LOl.....

Really i didn't expect Golden to let this one slip away along with the stupid move in the Denver Kirkland saga few hours before NSD.

But i still have great faith in Golden.

[thirstybuzzardcane]

How did Storm Johnson do at UCF? Didn't hear much about him this year.

[Terrance Sullivan]

That Dallas and Houston oil money combined with Walmart money from Bentonville suburban Fayetteville is a Biotch. Not surprised at all. Go Canes.

[nathan sasser]

Lol u guys kill me.sucks but we will be fine.

[UpNorthCane27]

Cant believe alex collins man.... If you saying you wan further ur academic and playing career and you pick arkansas you got issues!!!

[Ohio_Cane]

Jamie Newberg - Alex Collins said he actually came to his decision right b4 he came on set. #ark it will b on http://FoxSportssouth.com in 5 minutes

Interesting. Quick decision, huh?

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Just give me Thomas and a DT and I will be happy on wed.

[CaneRock]

Guess this kid doesn't want to be in Dukes shadow!!!!!

Posted by: thirstybuzzardcane | February 04, 2013 at 11:04 PM

YUP!
I think that's what it was.
He did say that He didn't wanna take Duke's spot.
Anyhoos, can't worry about Him no mo, they're not gonna cancel the season because we lost a 5*.

[orange 'n green in the vein]

Monty, that's about as un-smooth as I've ever seen Golden operate in all his years of coaching. Great that he waited until he was at UM to let the facade start to slip, or maybe that's the water level above his head that's making it float away as he sinks under.

And on that note, time to make another one for Keef.

[j.w.]

Amen, Jcane.
Bottom line on this one is Collins seems like a great kid who didn't pick us. No denying its a big loss simply because he is really the only one at his position that we recruited for most of the year (sorry, but I'll beleive the kid from New York is the real deal when I see it, too many examples of kids from the northeast at skill positions who don't pan out). But its just one miss, and there are many more important battles we need to win to determine if this is a successful calss or not

[CoCane]

Imo, the "U" has been down for too long. Because of that, missing out on going to the "U" isn't a big deal as of now. If this was an out of area thing it wouldn't matter. But this is a issue with local recruits. Golden HAS to win big next year. Recruits like Collins won't get away if you're winning every year.

[Canesteeler]

Damn some of you take this shit too serious to be adults. Worry about the ones we sign. Alex good luck in Arkansas.

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Wish everyone was like Frank Gore......he still comes to the U with Willis and Portis on the roster. I think Gore is the best running back to come out of the U!!!!

[CoCane]

Sony Michel now becomes a BIG MUST GET. The top 2 RB's in Dade for 2014have already committed to other ACC schools. FSU & Clemson...

I'm trying not to get steamed about Collins but I really didn't like that shyt. Lol

[Montreal-Cane]

IN MY OPINION

Greg Cote: Jim Larranaga lands in dream job with Miami Hurricanes

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/04/3217330/jim-larranaga-lands-in-dream-job.html#storylink=cpy

Jim L is an excellent coach as we all know...

The only problem with Coach L is recruiting
Enjoy this year and don't even think about next year...

[TonyCane]

The aged English knight looked down at the husk of what could have been a legendary Miami career laying at his feet, the unsigned commitment letter quickly turning to dust.

"He chose...poorly."

[Canesteeler]

Cocaine I agree. As much as we hate to admit the U has a long way to go to become a top program once again. A 10 win season and a BCS bowl will get us back to being attractive again.

[Montreal-Cane]

The only way to have better recruiting years is to start to win 10 and more games and it will begin in 2013. We can't no longer rely on the past....and the reputation...Just win and it will be great.

[mi@mic@ne]

that sounds like a story of a scorned lover ... lol

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Does anyone know who Collins picked tonight?

[86Cane]

Whatever happens in recruiting, I just wanna win.

[Ohio_Cane]

Whatever happens in recruiting, I just wanna win.

Posted by: 86Cane | February 04, 2013 at 11:35 PM
------------------------------------------

Truer words were never spoken.

[CoCane]

Canesteeler,

You're right. I had to put cell phone on silent. All of my cane fan homies here in Lauderdale have been blowing my phone up. Lol. People here in Lauderdale are REALLY PIZZED. Not just because he chose Arkansuck. Because the "U" showed him love & offered him when nobody knew about him. 1 of my homies said "he's a biatch & he ain't no real n*gga from the bottom. How you gonna switch out on the crib like that? Fukk'em. I hope his puzzy azz ride the pine his whole time up there". LMAO. I told him to just chill. As long as they keep gettin better & win. We'll get players we're supposed to.

Collins really pizzed the streets off in Lauderdale though. I'm listening to the dudes outside my window downstairs. Everybody's shocked & mad. We've all been hearing from people that know him, that he's been a cane fan his whole life & was all about the "U". Oh well. (shruggs)

[Terrance Sullivan]

Lol at Alex Collins picking a 5-7 team that lost most of its great players. Guess he got the D.Coward syndrome. Good luck with that. On to the next one. Go Canes.

[JCane]

MC:

Next year could be quite the problem for the U in hoops given all of the upperclassmen. With Larkin still around and a good season now, they could still p/u some good ones, but never know...

On a fantasy note, if the U had lost to Arizona but not to FGCU and Ind. State, this team could legitimately be the #1 team in the land right now. Kudos to them, but imagine.... I think we have to enjoy a great season in hoops when we have one, as we aren't quite like football was, where we could count on it every year. Hopefully Coach L can turn this around, but he likely only has a few years to do it at his age.

[TonyCane]

JCane, he just has to get the initial burst of momentum going, like Schellenberger did in football.

I'll go all out and say, if Couch L can get the Canes to the national championship this year, then the momentum begins and Canes basketball becomes a perpetual force in college basketball.

[CaneRock]

We won WAAAAAAY more than Arky last season, and AC still went went to Arky, so IMO, winning ain't the problem. We need to be righteously selfish...IOWs, we need to start winning for OURSELVES!
TO HELL! with winning for some damn kid who thinks He's got it all figured out.
PHUCK EM!...IT'S ALL ABOUT THE []_ _[]!!!

[Terrance Sullivan]

Yessss sir CaneRock.

[WWIN]

Okay, time to start stating my case for 4* RB Corn Elder who WANTS to be a cane, all Golden has to do is call him

[Terrance Sullivan]

Willie Will AG need to call him then.

[WWIN]

Tsully,

And I got his number and his momma number

Hit em up AG!!!!!

[WWIN]

Corn Elder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-E7J2itdykU&feature=youtube_gdata_player

[DeployedDiehardCane]

Getting Thomas and some DTs would make up for this but who knows now.

Posted by: DeployedDiehardCane | February 04, 2013 at 10:44 PM
------------------------------------------
Just give me Thomas and a DT and I will be happy on wed.

Posted by: thirstybuzzardcane | February 04, 2013 at 11:16 PM
-------------------------------------------
We're on the same page homie.

[CaneRock]

NEW BLOG!...fellas. LMAO!

http://canespace.typepad.com/canespace/2013/02/why-recruiting-is-an-art-not-a-science-.html

[360Cane]

If you could trade, would you take LB Thomas over OC Coley?