Five Star Follies

Last year the well known and frequently followed college recruiting service Rivals.com published an article in which they revealed the names of players that made the Rivals "five-star" football recruiting lists over the previous five years (2007-2011).

The story was written by the talented Steve Megargee, one of the National feature writers for Rivals who researched the football recruiting classes from 2007 to 2011 and gave a brief analysis of each players success or failure at the college level and in some cases also provided their NFLU draft status.

We thought it would be interesting to do a more in depth statistical analysis on his reporting so that we could try to get a "big picture" overview of just how good a predictor the five-star high school recruit designation was at predicting which players would be successful at the college level.

So we start off this series of five articles by framing the big picture around the lists of players that received the coveted five star label over the last five years.  In the coming days we will examine each class more closely in our series of consecutive articles.

Here is what our initial summary analysis found:

• Between 2007 and 2011 a small and select group of only 144 players received the five star rating from Rivals.com.
• The 2009 class was the largest with 33 players making the list.
• The 2010 and 2011 classes were the smallest with 26 players each.
• In 2008 there were 30 players that received the five star label while in 2007 there were 29.

So out of the 1 million or so high school football players in the U.S. in any given year only around 28 players (144/5) earned the five star designation on average over the five year period.

Based on this fact alone one would assume that almost every player receiving the prestigious five star designation by one of the top recruiting services in the Country would be considered a "can't miss prospect" that was soon going to win national awards and National Championships, right?

And, as usual, you would assume wrong.  In fact, you would be very, very wrong.  Which is why it is usually foolish and at times even dangerous to make assumptions based on opinions instead of analyzing the facts.

Which is why we are here to debunk the myths and to provide you the facts.  Here are some of the initial facts we found by studying the Rivals.com five star recruiting lists over five years (and we hope that you are sitting down as you read this!):

• Out of the 144 players designated as five star studs only 36 players or about about 25% went on to becomes what most people would consider to be stars or impact players at the college level.
• That means that approximately 108 players or about 75% of the five star recruits over the five year period were just solid, decent or average players who did not have a major impact on their teams success for various reasons.
• As of last count at least 19 players (13%) transferred from the original school they signed a LOI with on National Signing Day.
• From the list we found that 18 players (13%) suffered major injuries that had a significant negative impact on their careers.

So what that tells us is that only 1 out of every 4 five star recruits will go on to even bigger things in college or beyond that in the NFLU. It also shows us that 2 out of every 10 five star players will either transfer to another school or suffer a serious injury that impacts their college career.

So before you go counting all of your five star recruits before or after National Signing Day you should be cautious not to go predicting their individual success or their team's potential accomplishments.

Simply put, counting on five star recruits to be difference makers has been shown to not be such a good predictor of a team's success after all.

Related articles

Note To Recruits: U Snooze, U Lose

Behind The Recruiting Rankings

Top 25 Recruiting Classes Headed into National Signing Day

College football recruiting 2013: Feeling confident? Beware the class of 2009

Comments

[UMike]

I hate to say I told you so..but...lol....Still lots of other targets out there

[orange 'n green in the vein]

The Randy, laying the smack down on Special K's favorite plushie at every turn.

[TJL]

He looks 30 years old anyway

[RBLCane]

At some point you gotta wonder if the recruiting shows and sites arent paying these kids....

here we go...

Dammit.. Arkansas

[Ohio_Cane]

Arkansas......

[TJL]

FRACK

[RBLCane]

This kid is relishing all this attention... working hard to not tip his hand...

[RBLCane]

Dragging... dragging... dragging... blah blah blah.... close to 7000 now logged in...

[RBLCane]

Says its not all about the coaching staff WRT ARK

[RBLCane]

Could be me but tone when talking about []_[] doesnt sound good... talking a lot about Miami was only school he only knew growing up...

[RBLCane]

Here we go....

[Ohio_Cane]

Here we go, folks!

Alex Collins chooses...........

[Montreal-Cane]

Kids need so much attention and forget about being humble and core values...Prima donnas...Any good kids out there like Duke Johnson and Mike James????????????????????

[orange 'n green in the vein]

Man, if this ever needed Manny to come and save this blog with a live chat, NOW IS THE TIME! Not watching BTW, just find these comment LOL worthy for all the wrong reasons.

[RBLCane]

AC is next!

BTW 6000 people are watching that UStream link! That []_[] ratings boost never fails!

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Wow, okay. I'm done with this.

[TonyCane]

This is like the Mystery of Al Capone's Vaults.

I hope it has a better ending.

[ARCane]

Does anyone know if this is a 30 or 60 minute show? Thanks in advance!

Posted by: RBLCane | February 04, 2013 at 10:17 PM

60 min

[RBLCane]

It's an hour long..damn if I stay up and he picks ARK or FSU gonna be pissed

Posted by: TJL | February 04, 2013 at 10:21 PM

LOL... same here

[Ohio_Cane]

Their twitter saying Collins up next now in front of Foster

[TJL]

It's an hour long..damn if I stay up and he picks ARK or FSU gonna be pissed

[RBLCane]

I swear recruiting gets worse every year...

[RBLCane]

Does anyone know if this is a 30 or 60 minute show? Thanks in advance!

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Alvin Kamara has a beer gut.

[kenyon19ypr]

*Clarification: To Ohio not The Dude

[kenyon19ypr]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH WHHHHYYYYYYYYYYYYYY hahaha I'm dying.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Are we in the mix for Foster?

[Ohio_Cane]

Collins announcing after Reuben Foster

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: RBLCane | February 04, 2013 at 10:09 PM

Seems like? They are seriously dragging this out.

[Da U N Houston]

What station?

[RBLCane]

Seems like they're dragging this out... Reminds me of "The Announcment"... We all know how that turned out for the hometeam...

GO CANES!

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

When is he announcing?

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | February 04, 2013 at 10:01 PM

Indeed.

[Ohio_Cane]

Bad quality, but here's live stream: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/the-hair-metal-show-on-90-7-fm---the-capstone

[pompano cane]

any one has an link to where it will be showing on the internet

[UpNorthCane27]

Lmfal ohio thats what i call it the devils drink lmaoo... But hey man i cnt let it go lolll

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Zella, it's not on Comcast! Just checked all my channels

[kenyon19ypr]

Ohio you have a link?

[Ohio_Cane]

There will be a Raising Canes episode revolving around NSD just like last year!

Will be out Friday, 2/8/2013

[Ohio_Cane]

Zilla, don't think it's on Comcast. Internet or Direct TV channel 646

[Ohio_Cane]

UpNorth, Henny is the devil! Lol, I used to drink that all the time in my crazier drunken days. That and Jack. 2 old friends of mine lol

[UpNorthCane27]

Ohio i got a bottle of henney for you when were at the pitt game so can celebrate ur bday, willy will take that flight my man up to pitt for the game , you to Soup, theres enough henney on the rocks for everyone !!!

[canezilla]

ANYBODY KNO WHAT CH IN SOUTH FLORIDA? COMCAST

[UpNorthCane27]

Were half n hour away people..... Lets go alex collins lets get it poppin for the canes my man

[Ohio_Cane]

Direct TV users: It's channel 646 tonight

[TonyCane]

Hassan, I hope so. I half expected the NCAA to send Miami its NOA tomorrow evening.

[Ohio_Cane]

Well happy Bday to us both!

Maybe NSD will bring U a late present and me an early one!

[WWIN]

Willie will, yes. My bday is the 7th ;-)Thanks for remembering!

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | February 04, 2013 at 08:15 PM

I'm only good at remembering birthdays that are close to mine lol. Mine is tomorrow

[LB]

Good to hear, about the deal being reached.

[USAFCane]

Alex Collins to Arkansas per Manny Navarro

I hope he's wrong and it could just be wishful thinking on his part since he's turned to a cane hater recently

Posted by: Canesfan_1 | February 04, 2013 at 07:08 PM

What happened to Manny? Dude has not said anything good about Miami for an age. With that said, SEC equals $$$$ ... how else could it be close? We're not talking Tide , LSU or Gators here.

[UMike]

Hassan..U Da Man!..Hope that is correct

[UpNorthCane27]

Anybody know what channel the announcement will be on direct tv?

[Ohio_Cane]

Miami and NCAA might announce tomorrow a deal reached in the case.

Posted by: Hassan | February 04, 2013 at 08:33 PM
----------------------------

Would be FANTASTIC timing! Nice, Hassan!

[86Cane]

Hassy...HOLY SMOKES!

[Hassan]

Miami and NCAA might announce tomorrow a deal reached in the case.

[The Dude]

I think Collins is a Cane though.

[The Dude]

Thanks for the coverage Ohio.

[Ohio_Cane]

Willie will, yes. My bday is the 7th ;-)

Thanks for remembering!

[Ohio_Cane]

86, Roger that! Thanks!

See u all in a bit. Putting daughter to bed then preparing my Collins stream + twitter + Space

[Ohio_Cane]

I think it was The Wizard who asked if I still thought NSD will be epic for Canes. Simple answer: YES! I'm not talking #1 class, cuz lets be honest, rivals and ESPN dont like us, but it's gonna be awesome.

We'll miss on a couple that everyone wanted and they'll cry.

We'll hit on a couple that some didnt think we would and they'll rejoice.

Overall, as long as I'm not more than 25% wrong plus MAYBE a surprise or 2, it will be epic.

[86Cane]

OhioCane...package mailed today with your Cane SWAG and your NEW contract in it to Ohio. Make sure to open both ends of the tube because there is all kinds of stuff all throughout the mailing package. Your agent WWIN get's his usual 10% cut.

SolarCane...Your Canespace coffee mug and shirt also mailed today to Georgia.

TonyCane...your T-shirt also mailed today to Texas.

CGNC...believe it or not I deleted your email with your addy in it so I need U to re-send the email. Thanks!

[ARCane]

Just watched the local news here in Arkansas and the top sports story was where is Collins going to play football. They were very excited. I got a good laugh from it. I think they were happy a recruit would actually have Miami and Arkansas as their final two. "He's the top running back in Florida so he has to be good!" lol hog fans here kill me

[RBLCane]

Been away for a couple of days but what a weekend and what a Super Bowl! The more experienced team and coach won, which makes sense in these kind of games. The relatively older Ravens seemed lethargic after the power outage but thankfully they put it together when they needed to the most. I bet money that Reed would get an INT and he didn't fail. Rookie QB (basically) versus best safety of all time? Easiest money I ever made!

Very happy for all the new Canes Super Bowl Champions, especially the lesser known guys like Streeter and Berry. Those two always seem very engaged on the sidelines and hopefully will continue to develop and get more playing time in the future.

Tough luck for Gore but hopefully he'll get another chance next year. The 49ers will come back determined and will succeed as long as opponents don't catch on to their college-style offense. My guess is other teams will get better at slowing down the 49ers but they won't be able to stop them.

Here's to hoping Alex Collins picks the U tonight! Don't forget free pancakes tomorrow at IHOP!

Oh, and thanks for the Canespace welcome 86! I used to blog here a few years back as "CanesFanStuckInCali" and "CanesFanStuckInNYC" before that. Then law school and life in general got really busy so I had to slow things down a bit. I recently moved back to FL and decided to start blogging again, except that my old handles didn't apply anymore--I'm back home! So thanks again for the welcome but more importantly for keeping this great blog and community alive throug all these years!

Less than 48 hours till those those LOIs start coming in!!! I think we'll finish strong and pull off a few surprises!

GO CANES!!!

[Canesfan_1]

Not real happy with Mandingo lately.. gotta tell ya.

Seems WAY TOO happy to spread negatives about The U.

Posted by: roachcane77 | February 04, 2013 at 07:25 PM

I have to agree. I realize he's a reporter and is supposed to be objective so I could care less if he's a fan or not, but he seems awfully eager to spread bad news, even if it's less than accurate. In fact lately he seems to slant against the canes. He really messed up reporting the whole Kirkland thing and the baseball coach he was very unfair to. I read somewhere else that he accused the coach of being a pusher so I looked up the article. I was shocked to see he was flat out speculating that the coach was a runner for the team. He was the only reporter to take it that far.

I think something's happened where someone has pissed him off, maybe one of UM's media guys. Who knows but I think he's lost his objectivity.

[The Dude]

Worry not. Collins to the U.

[WWIN]

ohio,

don't you have a birthday this week?

[The Dude]

Ha ha, if you liked it then you shoulda put a backup generator on it. Ha ha

[UMike]

I got to admit..I DONT wanna be right about Collins lol

[roachcane77]

You're right 86... "5 stars" don't guarantee anything... but, having said that, it would be nice to have about 13 "5 stars" lining up on NSD.

[j.w.]

Manny is just ddoing his job, sometimes it isn't glamorous. I don't see him taking pleasure at spreading bad news like Lebatard does.

[roachcane77]

Not real happy with Mandingo lately.. gotta tell ya.

Seems WAY TOO happy to spread negatives about The U.

[Terrance Sullivan]

Great article 86.

[86Cane]

Alex Collins to Arkansas per Manny Navarro

Posted by: Canesfan_1 | February 04, 2013 at 07:08 PM

As I stated on the previous blog this is a very real possibility. I am NOT calling it one way or the other and will wait and see.

[kenyon19ypr]

All I want to see is (service-dependent) 5-star Collins throw that []__[] up.

[The Dude]

Fiirst loser.

[360Cane]

It starts tonight.