Five Star Follies

Last year the well known and frequently followed college recruiting service Rivals.com published an article in which they revealed the names of players that made the Rivals "five-star" football recruiting lists over the previous five years (2007-2011).

The story was written by the talented Steve Megargee, one of the National feature writers for Rivals who researched the football recruiting classes from 2007 to 2011 and gave a brief analysis of each players success or failure at the college level and in some cases also provided their NFLU draft status.

We thought it would be interesting to do a more in depth statistical analysis on his reporting so that we could try to get a "big picture" overview of just how good a predictor the five-star high school recruit designation was at predicting which players would be successful at the college level.

So we start off this series of five articles by framing the big picture around the lists of players that received the coveted five star label over the last five years.  In the coming days we will examine each class more closely in our series of consecutive articles.

Here is what our initial summary analysis found:

• Between 2007 and 2011 a small and select group of only 144 players received the five star rating from Rivals.com.
• The 2009 class was the largest with 33 players making the list.
• The 2010 and 2011 classes were the smallest with 26 players each.
• In 2008 there were 30 players that received the five star label while in 2007 there were 29.

So out of the 1 million or so high school football players in the U.S. in any given year only around 28 players (144/5) earned the five star designation on average over the five year period.

Based on this fact alone one would assume that almost every player receiving the prestigious five star designation by one of the top recruiting services in the Country would be considered a "can't miss prospect" that was soon going to win national awards and National Championships, right?

And, as usual, you would assume wrong.  In fact, you would be very, very wrong.  Which is why it is usually foolish and at times even dangerous to make assumptions based on opinions instead of analyzing the facts.

Which is why we are here to debunk the myths and to provide you the facts.  Here are some of the initial facts we found by studying the Rivals.com five star recruiting lists over five years (and we hope that you are sitting down as you read this!):

• Out of the 144 players designated as five star studs only 36 players or about about 25% went on to becomes what most people would consider to be stars or impact players at the college level.
• That means that approximately 108 players or about 75% of the five star recruits over the five year period were just solid, decent or average players who did not have a major impact on their teams success for various reasons.
• As of last count at least 19 players (13%) transferred from the original school they signed a LOI with on National Signing Day.
• From the list we found that 18 players (13%) suffered major injuries that had a significant negative impact on their careers.

So what that tells us is that only 1 out of every 4 five star recruits will go on to even bigger things in college or beyond that in the NFLU. It also shows us that 2 out of every 10 five star players will either transfer to another school or suffer a serious injury that impacts their college career.

So before you go counting all of your five star recruits before or after National Signing Day you should be cautious not to go predicting their individual success or their team's potential accomplishments.

Simply put, counting on five star recruits to be difference makers has been shown to not be such a good predictor of a team's success after all.

Related articles

Note To Recruits: U Snooze, U Lose

Behind The Recruiting Rankings

Top 25 Recruiting Classes Headed into National Signing Day

College football recruiting 2013: Feeling confident? Beware the class of 2009

Comments

[j.w.]

Amen, Jcane.
Bottom line on this one is Collins seems like a great kid who didn't pick us. No denying its a big loss simply because he is really the only one at his position that we recruited for most of the year (sorry, but I'll beleive the kid from New York is the real deal when I see it, too many examples of kids from the northeast at skill positions who don't pan out). But its just one miss, and there are many more important battles we need to win to determine if this is a successful calss or not

[CoCane]

Imo, the "U" has been down for too long. Because of that, missing out on going to the "U" isn't a big deal as of now. If this was an out of area thing it wouldn't matter. But this is a issue with local recruits. Golden HAS to win big next year. Recruits like Collins won't get away if you're winning every year.

[Canesteeler]

Damn some of you take this shit too serious to be adults. Worry about the ones we sign. Alex good luck in Arkansas.

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Wish everyone was like Frank Gore......he still comes to the U with Willis and Portis on the roster. I think Gore is the best running back to come out of the U!!!!

[CoCane]

Sony Michel now becomes a BIG MUST GET. The top 2 RB's in Dade for 2014have already committed to other ACC schools. FSU & Clemson...

I'm trying not to get steamed about Collins but I really didn't like that shyt. Lol

[Montreal-Cane]

IN MY OPINION

Greg Cote: Jim Larranaga lands in dream job with Miami Hurricanes

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/04/3217330/jim-larranaga-lands-in-dream-job.html#storylink=cpy

Jim L is an excellent coach as we all know...

The only problem with Coach L is recruiting
Enjoy this year and don't even think about next year...

[TonyCane]

The aged English knight looked down at the husk of what could have been a legendary Miami career laying at his feet, the unsigned commitment letter quickly turning to dust.

"He chose...poorly."

[Canesteeler]

Cocaine I agree. As much as we hate to admit the U has a long way to go to become a top program once again. A 10 win season and a BCS bowl will get us back to being attractive again.

[Montreal-Cane]

The only way to have better recruiting years is to start to win 10 and more games and it will begin in 2013. We can't no longer rely on the past....and the reputation...Just win and it will be great.

[mi@mic@ne]

that sounds like a story of a scorned lover ... lol

[thirstybuzzardcane]

Does anyone know who Collins picked tonight?

[86Cane]

Whatever happens in recruiting, I just wanna win.

[Ohio_Cane]

Whatever happens in recruiting, I just wanna win.

Posted by: 86Cane | February 04, 2013 at 11:35 PM
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Truer words were never spoken.

[CoCane]

Canesteeler,

You're right. I had to put cell phone on silent. All of my cane fan homies here in Lauderdale have been blowing my phone up. Lol. People here in Lauderdale are REALLY PIZZED. Not just because he chose Arkansuck. Because the "U" showed him love & offered him when nobody knew about him. 1 of my homies said "he's a biatch & he ain't no real n*gga from the bottom. How you gonna switch out on the crib like that? Fukk'em. I hope his puzzy azz ride the pine his whole time up there". LMAO. I told him to just chill. As long as they keep gettin better & win. We'll get players we're supposed to.

Collins really pizzed the streets off in Lauderdale though. I'm listening to the dudes outside my window downstairs. Everybody's shocked & mad. We've all been hearing from people that know him, that he's been a cane fan his whole life & was all about the "U". Oh well. (shruggs)

[Terrance Sullivan]

Lol at Alex Collins picking a 5-7 team that lost most of its great players. Guess he got the D.Coward syndrome. Good luck with that. On to the next one. Go Canes.

[JCane]

MC:

Next year could be quite the problem for the U in hoops given all of the upperclassmen. With Larkin still around and a good season now, they could still p/u some good ones, but never know...

On a fantasy note, if the U had lost to Arizona but not to FGCU and Ind. State, this team could legitimately be the #1 team in the land right now. Kudos to them, but imagine.... I think we have to enjoy a great season in hoops when we have one, as we aren't quite like football was, where we could count on it every year. Hopefully Coach L can turn this around, but he likely only has a few years to do it at his age.

[TonyCane]

JCane, he just has to get the initial burst of momentum going, like Schellenberger did in football.

I'll go all out and say, if Couch L can get the Canes to the national championship this year, then the momentum begins and Canes basketball becomes a perpetual force in college basketball.

[CaneRock]

We won WAAAAAAY more than Arky last season, and AC still went went to Arky, so IMO, winning ain't the problem. We need to be righteously selfish...IOWs, we need to start winning for OURSELVES!
TO HELL! with winning for some damn kid who thinks He's got it all figured out.
PHUCK EM!...IT'S ALL ABOUT THE []_ _[]!!!

[Terrance Sullivan]

Yessss sir CaneRock.

[WWIN]

Okay, time to start stating my case for 4* RB Corn Elder who WANTS to be a cane, all Golden has to do is call him

[Terrance Sullivan]

Willie Will AG need to call him then.

[WWIN]

Tsully,

And I got his number and his momma number

Hit em up AG!!!!!

[WWIN]

Corn Elder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-E7J2itdykU&feature=youtube_gdata_player

[DeployedDiehardCane]

Getting Thomas and some DTs would make up for this but who knows now.

Posted by: DeployedDiehardCane | February 04, 2013 at 10:44 PM
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Just give me Thomas and a DT and I will be happy on wed.

Posted by: thirstybuzzardcane | February 04, 2013 at 11:16 PM
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We're on the same page homie.

[CaneRock]

NEW BLOG!...fellas. LMAO!

http://canespace.typepad.com/canespace/2013/02/why-recruiting-is-an-art-not-a-science-.html

[360Cane]

If you could trade, would you take LB Thomas over OC Coley?