Canespace: June 2014

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Third Down: Why U Must Convert

In taking a third look at the many ways that Al Golden can improve the University of Miami football team from last year to the 2014 season, we decided to look at the all important third down conversion rates on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball as one key measures of potential success during any football game or season.

Let us now look more closely at a few of these stats and exactly where the University of Miami ranks among their peers:

For the 2013 season the Hurricanes ranked #96 of 123 teams in offensive third down conversion rate with a .352 average.
Not surprisingly, on defense Miami fared no better coming in at #98 with an average of .419 of third downs being converted against the UM defense.
So as you might expect Miami did not fare well at all when it comes to the time of possession category. The Hurricanes ranked #118 of the 123 teams in TOP in 2013.

So let's do a simple flip-flop of the numbers to see where the Hurricanes would land If UM were able to reverse the numbers above:

If Miami raised their offensive third down conversion rate to .419 (from .352) they would move from #96 to #28 in the team rankings a spot held by Mississippi State in 2013.
If Miami were to lower their defensive thrird down coversion rate to .352 (from .419) they would move up from #98 to #52 a spot occupied by Notre Dame last season.

Now let's take a look at the top 10 teams in both categories, offensive conversion rates first:

1 LSU .571

2 Louisville .560

3 Florida St. .522

4 Georgia Tech .514

- Marshall .514

6 Navy .511

7 East Carolina .510

8 Texas A&M .503

9 La.-Lafayette .500

10 Stanford .497

Now let's make a closer inspection of the defensive stop rates for third downs:

1 Louisville .267

2 Michigan St. .279

3 Virginia Tech .297

4 Wisconsin .306

5 Clemson .308

6 Nebraska .309

7 Oklahoma St. .314

8 Virginia .320

9 Stanford .322

10 Florida St. .322

As you can see from the above lists, three teams made the top 10 in both categories: Louisville (2/1), FSU (3/10) and Stanford (10/9). So what does all this tell us about these stats and their outcomes?

Not surprisingly, Louisville, a team that spanked Miami in the bowl game in Orlando and finished the season ranked #15 in the polls, was ranked #2 in time of possession in 2013.
Stanford ranked #27 in TOP and finished the 2013 campaign ranked #10/11 in the polls.
Eventual 2013 National Championship winner FSU finished on top of the college football world but quite a bit lower in TOP (due to their explosive offense) at #71.

And just for kicks, let's look at some other ACC teams who also made the list:

Virginia Tech was #3 in defensive third down stops and #8 in TOP in 2013.
Georgia Tech ranked #4 in offensive third downs converted and finished at #6 in TOP.
Virginia ranked #8 in defense on third down and finished at #5 in TOP.
All of these teams were un-ranked at season's end in 2013, so these stats alone clearly are not a complete measure of a team's chance of success but only one of many areas that must be examined, assessed and improved from year to year.

While it can be argued that converting third downs while on offense, and preventing the opposition from converting while on defense, easily trumps the often misleading time of possession category, all three factors are so closely inter-related that their combined impact on a game's outcome cannot be ignored.

What it all really comes down to is that third downs, and time of possession, really do matter.

For your Miami Hurricanes what that means is that by increasing first downs converted on offense by even a small percentage and also reducing the opposition's third down conversion rate by a just a narrow margin can be all the difference between winning and losing in 2014.

Posted at 12:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (111)

Numbers Never Lie (Part Deux)

In taking a second look at the many ways that Al Golden can improve the University of Miami football team from last year to the 2014 season, we decided to look at the defensive side of the ball and average points per game allowed as one key measure of potential success during any football season.

Just to remind you, we were led down this road after we recently read prognosticator extraordinaire Phil Steele’s formula for analyzing certain categories of statistics from the previous season and how they correlate to a team’s ability to challenge for a National Championship the following season.

To refresh your memory, Steele looked at the last 22 National champions and set minimum thresholds for what a team needs to produce statistically during the previous season to even be in the hunt for the college crown the following year. So to be clear, the results were not Steele's personal opinion about a certain team's chances, but instead were solely based on his statistical model.

If you want to read his very interesting article and get a lot more details, including the 15 teams he narrowed his list down to for a title run in the 2014 season, then click here:

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/JUNE14/DBJune20.html

So, let us now look more closely at a few of these stats and exactly where the University of Miami ranks among their peers. One factor that Steele considers is scoring as defined by average points allowed per game. As stated above, he looked at teams over the last two decades that won a title and their previous season statistical averages.

On defense the 2009 Auburn Tigers allowed the highest average point total at 27.5 ppg. So generally speaking if you can hold your opponent to 27 points or less per game on average you have a shot.

Comparatively speaking on defense the Hurricanes ranked #65 in scoring defense last season allowing an average of 26.8 ppg which is indeed lower than the minimum threshold of 27.5 points established by Steele. So by that criteria, UM could win the National championship in 2014, right?

However, UM gets eliminated from the National title hunt in the very next statistical measure which is the dreaded "yards allowed per game" category where the Hurricanes come in at #89 by virtue of the now nicely aged and definitely infamous "Swiss Cheese" defense that surrendered 426 yards/game.

While it can be argued that points allowed trump yards allowed the category speaks to the fact of time of possession for the opposition, which in turn directly limits your offensive chances and production.

So to put it very simply what it comes down to is that if Miami could have forced a few more three-and-outs last year they would have reduced their yards/game totals and increased their scoring chances.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know this is not rocket science but it does statistically support and clarify what many UM fans have been saying all along: Miami must find ways to get the defense off of the field on third down and keep the offense on it by converting third downs. In fact, those two critical factors are so inter-dependent on each other that it cannot be overemphasized.

What it all really comes down to is that points and yards do matter.

For your 2014 Miami Hurricanes what that means is that by simply increasing first downs converted on offense by a mere 10% and also reducing the opposition's third down conversion rate by 10% can be all the difference between winning nine games and winning a National Championship.

Yes, it is true that both points, and yards, do matter.

Posted at 10:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (115)

Even 'Canes Fans Have World Cup Fever

We interrupt our regularly scheduled programming to bring you this important public service announcement: It appears that even Miami Hurricane fans have caught what appears to be the highly contagious World Cup fever.

In fact, we have heard many UM fans proudly shouting out loud: USA, USA, USA!

So let us all give a proud shout out to the United States men's soccer team that is currently participating in the World Cup tournament in Brazil.

Unless you have been living under a rock for the last month or so leading up to this event you know that in spite of seemingly low expectations the team has started to exceed those expectations and has a very good chance to advance even further after today's match.

Assuming that you, like many Americans, know very little about the World Cup and its history and organization, here is a brief primer from Wikipedia:

The FIFA World Cup, often simply called the World Cup, is an international association football competition contested by the seniormen's national teams of the members of Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the sport's global governing body. The championship has been awarded every four years since the inaugural tournament in 1930, except in 1942 and 1946 when it was not held because of the Second World War. The current champions are Spain, who won the 2010 tournament in South Africa.

The current format of the tournament involves 32 teams competing for the title at venues within the host nation(s) over a period of about a month; this phase is often called the World Cup Finals. A qualification phase, which currently takes place over the preceding three years, is used to determine which teams qualify for the tournament together with the host nation(s).

The 19 World Cup tournaments have been won by eight different national teams. Brazil have won five times, and they are the only team to have played in every tournament (Brazil automatically qualified for the 2014 tournament, as the host nation). The other World Cup winners are Italy, with four titles; West Germany, with three titles; Argentina and inaugural winners Uruguay, with two titles each; and England, France, and Spain, with one title each.

The World Cup is the most widely viewed and followed sporting event in the world, exceeding even the Olympic Games; the cumulative audience of all matches of the 2006 FIFA World Cup was estimated to be 26.29 billion with an estimated 715.1 million people watching the final match, a ninth of the entire population of the planet.

The U.S. team will face a real heavyweight in heavily favored Germany in a critical game today to see if they will advance out of the first round of group play and get into the knockout round of 16. Here is more for you on the World Cup tournament format again from the always helpful Wikipedia:

The current final tournament features 32 national teams competing over a month in the host nation(s). There are two stages: the group stage followed by the knockout stage.

In the group stage, teams compete within eight groups of four teams each. Eight teams are seeded, including the hosts, with the other seeded teams selected using a formula based on the FIFA World Rankings and/or performances in recent World Cups, and drawn to separate groups.

Each group plays a round-robin tournament, in which each team is scheduled for three matches against other teams in the same group. This means that a total of six matches are played within a group. The top two teams from each group advance to the knockout stage.

The knockout stage is a single-elimination tournament in which teams play each other in one-off matches, with extra time and penalty shootouts used to decide the winner if necessary. It begins with the round of 16 (or the second round) in which the winner of each group plays against the runner-up of another group. This is followed by the quarter-finals, the semi-finals, the third-place match (contested by the losing semi-finalists), and the final.

The scenarios by which the the good guys can advance are many but the simplest way to continue their quest for the World Cup is to get a win or tie against the bad guys today at noon (ESPN). If they can accomplish that lofty goal then the U.S is in the next round of competition.

If the U.S. loses then there are a few other formulas by which they can still advance, but that is by far a much riskier proposition in itself. It then comes down to such random things as goal differential, the color of the jerseys of the other team, which country has a stronger military, which one has better food and music, and of course, which country has the better looking women.

Many of these criteria are so subjective that we dare to say that we should not complicate the situation any more than necessary. And, since here at Canespace we like to keep it simple let's just stick with this formula:

Win and U are in!

Now, I need you to shout it out loud with me: USA, USA, USA!!!

Posted at 11:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (152)

The Numbers Never Lie (Well Except Sometimes)

In looking at the many ways that Al Golden can improve the University of Miami football team from last year to the 2014 season, we decided to look at the offensive side of the ball and average points per game scored as one key measure of potential success.

We were led to this position after recently read prognosticator extraordinaire Phil Steele’s formula for analyzing certain categories of statistics from the previous season and how they correlate to a team’s ability to challenge for a National Championship the following season.

Steele looked at the last 22 National champions and set minimum thresholds for what a team needs to produce statistically during the previous season to even be in the hunt for the college crown the following year.

Now we are almost certain that many of you out there are familiar with the famous quote: “There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics.” And while it is true that numbers can mislead, confuse, contradict common sense and even be twisted by someone with an agenda to say whatever they want them to, we don’t think that this was Steele’s intent at all.

Steele does not have a dog in this fight, so, we think he is being objective and fair. So to be fair to him, if you want to read his very interesting article and get a lot more details, including the 15 teams he narrowed his list down to for the 2014 season, then click here:

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/JUNE14/DBJune20.html

So, for the basis of argument, let us look more closely at a few of these stats and exactly where the University of Miami ranks among their peers. One factor that Steele considers is scoring as defined by average points per game (ppg) for and against. As stated, he looked at teams over the last two decades that won a title and their previous season staitical averages.

What he found in terms of offense is that Michigan in 1996 had the lowest average scoring at 23.1 ppg and on defense the 2009 Auburn Tigers allowed the highest average point total at 27.5 ppg. So generally speaking if you can either score at least 24 ppg or hold your opponent to 27 points or less per game on average you have a shot.

Comparatively speaking, on offense Miami ranked #33 in scoring with 33.8 ppg (versus 23.1) and on defense the Hurricanes ranked #65 in scoring defense allowing an average of 26.8 ppg (versus 27.5) last season. So by those two criteria, UM could win the National championship in 2014, right?

Well that is at least until you get to defensive yards allowed, which according to Steele’s numbers at least, knock the Canes out of contention for the title in 2014. See what I mean about numbers? How can yards allowed on defense be equally as important as point allowed? Last time I checked, it is points on the scoreboard not yards gained that wins football games.

But I digress.

Let’s stay focused on offense and take a look at some numbers from last season’s most productive college football offenses. Here are the top 20 scoring teams from 2013 (Rank, Team, PPG):

1 Baylor 52.4
2 Florida St. 51.6
3 Ohio St. 45.5
- Oregon 45.5
5 Texas A&M 44.2
6 Fresno St. 43.1
7 Marshall 42.4
8 Clemson 40.2
- East Carolina 40.2
10 Arizona St. 39.7
11 Northern Ill. 39.6
12 Auburn 39.5
13 Missouri 39.1
14 Oklahoma St. 39.1
15 Ball St. 38.5
16 Indiana 38.4
17 Alabama 38.2
18 Washington 37.9
19 Boise St. 37.5
20 UCLA 36.9

So putting aside Steele’s “minimum necessary” statistics for a championship run for just a minute, what the numbers above from 2013 prove is that basically to be a top 10 college offense you have to score 40 points per game, and to be a top 20 offense you need 37 points per game.

Last season Miami, even after losing star RB Duke Johnson and big time WR Phillip Dorsett to injury, and with average play at QB, still had almost 34 points per game (33.8).

Clearly, what that indicates is that for the Hurricanes to be a top 20 offense they need to score one more FG per game. If UM can manage an extra TD per game they jump right into the top 10 in offense.

If Miami can do that, and it does not seem to be unreasonable given the offensive firepower on this team (and maybe add a little more time of possession to the mix), then I would be willing to bet that this year's Hurricane team (and its much maligned defense, playing rested and with the lead) will look a whole lot better in 2014.

Posted at 03:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (139)

Schwartz Center Helps "The U" Build Champions

We all know that there is only one U.

And make no mistake about it, for Miami Hurricane fans, it is all about "The U".

During our recent Canespace "Four Play" trip in February to South Florida and the beautiful campus of the University of Miami a few of us had a chance to see the newly constructed Schwartz Center for Athletic Excellence up close and personal for the first time.

Even though Miami proved long ago that winning championships is not all about facilities, in today's highly competitive "recruiting wars" world, it doesn't hurt.

We, like many others who have visited and seen the facility, were extremely impressed with the new, modern and state-of-the-art building located directly behind the Hecht Athletic Center.

As you can see from the above video, there is only one U. It is a small, private school that is a very special place that has produced some of the best student-athletes ever and many National Champions.

And whether it is the old U or the new U, or whether you have been a UM fan forever or for just a few years, we still think that you would strongly agree:

"It is all about The U!"

Posted at 10:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (223)

Sun Life Set For Significant Upgrades

It was announced today by several sources that the Miami-Dade board of county commissioners voted 7-4 in favor of renovations to Sun Life Stadium (SLS). The renovations are scheduled to begin later this year and completed by 2017.

The plan is for Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross to manage the $350 million stadium renovation. This major construction project involves using mostly team and NFL money along with a possible State subsidy for construction. In the agreement, the county will also pay the Dolphins for all major event the stadium hosts, such as the Super Bowl or College Football Playoff.

The renovations include a canopy over the seating area, new lighting and scoreboards, improved fan amenities and much more. With the Miami Hurricanes under contract to play at SLS until 2033, Hurricane fans can applaud and celebrate today's vote and also expect to see major improvements in their game day experience in the coming years.

With such an major emphasis on "facilities" now in college athletics, it is also liklely that these stadium upgrades will enhance and improve UM's recruiting efforts in the future. And we like that, yeah, we like that a lot!

Posted at 03:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (229)

Happy Anniversary Canespace!

Seven years is a long time.

A lot can happen in seven years.

A lot has happened in the last seven years on Canespace.

Today, Canespace celebrates its seventh anniversary of bringing you the news you can use about your Miami Hurricanes. And, as we already mentioned, a lot has happened over that time on the blog run "For The Fans, By The Fans".

It was even suggested this past year that the blog's tag line be changed to "Canespace: Ruining Work Productivity One Day At A Time."

Whether you blog all day at work, or from home, or even on the go with your mobile device, we know that you blog and that you blog a lot! Here are the stats for the last seven years to prove it:

Lifetime Page Views: 8,075,909

Page Views/Day: 3158

Total Posts: 1864

Total Comments: 439,607

From the exciting hiring and eventual sad firing of a long-time Hurricane legend, player-turned-coach Randy Shannon, to the hiring of Al Golden as his replacement, Canespace has hung in there with you through the all the wins and losses, NCAA investigations, recruiting classes and the frustration and agony that goes with the territory.

From the early "blog wars" that nearly tore the #CanesFam apart, to the defections and departures of many talented and interesting bloggers who have come and gone over the years, Canespace has been the one common place of safe refuge for Canes fans from literally all over the world.

We thank all of you who are still here with us and we offer an invitation and warm welcome to those who would join us to talk Hurricane sports all day, every day throughout the many years to come.

Go Canes, Go Canespace!

Posted at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (143)

Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap

Everybody knows that dirty deeds are done dirt cheap every single day.

Everybody knows that you should never break into another man's house.

Everybody knows that you should never shoot and kill another person.

Unfortunately, a few classless criminals-turned-killers did just that several years ago in the case involving former UM and NFL star Sean Taylor.

And now finally, they will all get what they deserved: life sentences in prison.

Justice may have been delayed, but justice was not denied for ST#26.

A jury, after more than three hours of deliberation, determined that Mitchell was the mastermind of the plot to rob Taylor’s home. Judge Dennis Murphy immediately sentenced Mitchell to life in prison, the mandatory term for first-degree murder.

Eric Rivera, who police claim was the shooter, was previously convicted of second-degree murder in an earlier trial. While a jury was unable to decide if it was Rivera that pulled the trigger, he will spend nearly 60 years in prison.

Also awaiting trial are Charles Wardlow and Timmy Brown. Venjah Hunte already has pleaded guilty.

Pedro Taylor, Sean's father and the Chief of Police in Florida City was quoted as saying: “I’m pleased with the verdict.We still got two more to go.”

Posted at 09:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (278)

Hurricane Club Blows Past Goal

The Hurricane Club has reached its goal in annual giving with more than $9.8 million raised for the Student-Athlete Excellence Fund. This is $1 million more than was raised in 2013.

“It is an exciting time for Hurricane Athletics and I would like to thank each and every Hurricane Club Member for their generous support in Building Champions at the University of Miami,” Director of Athletics Blake James said. “We are continuing our strategic plan of providing our student-athletes with the best education and resources in collegiate athletics and the generosity of our Hurricane Club members greatly assist in these efforts.”

The Student-Athlete Excellence Fund provides the funding for scholarships, facility improvements and operational support needed to achieve excellence in 18 varsity sports, and provides opportunities for 400+ student-athletes.

The $9.8 million goal was made possible by gifts from over 6,500 Hurricane Club members, many of whom increased their giving for 2014 through the Canes Plus Program

“Collectively our 6,500+ Hurricane Club Members representing over 48 states and 4 countries have stepped up for University of Miami student-athletes and met this goal head on,” Associate AD for Development Jesse Marks said. “We still have work to do and we aim to increase our membership base to 7,500 members by the end of 2014. Thank you to all of our current Hurricane Club members for your continued and generous support of our Miami Hurricanes!”

Reaching the $9.8 million fundraising mark is the second goal of the year achieved by the Hurricane Club. Earlier this year, the Hurricane Club surpassed their goal of reaching 1,000 new members. The third goal remaining is building the Hurricane Club to 7,500 members by December 31.

To help UM Athletics get to 7,500 Hurricane Club members please visit www.umbuildingchampions.com. An annual membership begins at the Sebastian Level for just $50.

To learn more about the Hurricane Club, please visit www.uhurricaneclub.com or call 305-284-6699.

Posted at 11:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (161)

So The Question Is: "Are U A Homer, Or A Hater?"

I always thought that if you were a fan of the Miami Hurricanes, and also happened to read and post comments on a UM fan blog for several years, that you would be a positive, supportive fan of the "The U" and that you would be more likely than most to say really nice and helpful things about "your team".

And by a fan I mean a person who supports, cheers and roots for the team that wears orange and green and really hopes that the Hurricanes wins most of, if not every single game they play. That is what most "fans" do for their teams, regardless of what colors they wear, or where and when they play any event.

But apparently, I was wrong once again. Shockingly enough there are a group of so-called Miami fans that actually hate their team. No really, while some of you may find it hard to believe, it is absolutely and factually true.

There is a small but dedicated group of "haters" out there that want to crush, destroy and terminate anyone who might support their team. In fact, they call these positive minded folks "homers".

While most "fans" of any team root for and encourage their team and coaches and players this group does the opposite. They whine, blame, bash, and at times want to bludgeon them to death with great force.

Why? I have no idea, but I do know that they certainly do exist.

They hate the school, the President, the Head Coach, criticize certain players, and blame even some inanimate objects like stadiums and anything else they can find for their life's miseries.

You would think that someone from UM, a player, coach or administrator, actually came into their home and robbed them of all that they hold dear just to make them wallow in anguish and pain on purpose.

The Homers just want their team to win and celebrate when they do.

The Haters just want their team to lose and then complain when they do.