The Numbers Never Lie (Well Except Sometimes)

In looking at the many ways that Al Golden can improve the University of Miami football team from last year to the 2014 season, we decided to look at the offensive side of the ball and average points per game scored as one key measure of potential success.

We were led to this position after recently read prognosticator extraordinaire Phil Steele’s formula for analyzing certain categories of statistics from the previous season and how they correlate to a team’s ability to challenge for a National Championship the following season. 

Steele looked at the last 22 National champions and set minimum thresholds for what a team needs to produce statistically during the previous season to even be in the hunt for the college crown the following year.

Now we are almost certain that many of you out there are familiar with the famous quote: “There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics.” And while it is true that numbers can mislead, confuse, contradict common sense and even be twisted by someone with an agenda to say whatever they want them to, we don’t think that this was Steele’s intent at all.  

Steele does not have a dog in this fight, so, we think he is being objective and fair. So to be fair to him, if you want to read his very interesting article and get a lot more details, including the 15 teams he narrowed his list down to for the 2014 season, then click here:

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/JUNE14/DBJune20.html

So, for the basis of argument, let us look more closely at a few of these stats and exactly where the University of Miami ranks among their peers. One factor that Steele considers is scoring as defined by average points per game (ppg) for and against.  As stated, he looked at teams over the last two decades that won a title and their previous season staitical averages.

What he found in terms of offense is that Michigan in 1996 had the lowest average scoring at 23.1 ppg and on defense the 2009 Auburn Tigers allowed the highest average point total at 27.5 ppg. So generally speaking if you can either score at least 24 ppg or hold your opponent to 27 points or less per game on average you have a shot.

Comparatively speaking, on offense Miami ranked #33 in scoring with 33.8 ppg (versus 23.1) and on defense the Hurricanes ranked #65 in scoring defense allowing an average of 26.8 ppg (versus 27.5) last season. So by those two criteria, UM could win the National championship in 2014, right?

Well that is at least until you get to defensive yards allowed, which according to Steele’s numbers at least, knock the Canes out of contention for the title in 2014. See what I mean about numbers? How can yards allowed on defense be equally as important as point allowed? Last time I checked, it is points on the scoreboard not yards gained that wins football games.

But I digress.

Let’s stay focused on offense and take a look at some numbers from last season’s most productive college football offenses. Here are the top 20 scoring teams from 2013 (Rank, Team, PPG):

1 Baylor 52.4
2 Florida St. 51.6
3 Ohio St. 45.5
- Oregon 45.5
5 Texas A&M 44.2
6 Fresno St. 43.1
7 Marshall 42.4
8 Clemson 40.2
- East Carolina 40.2
10 Arizona St. 39.7
11 Northern Ill. 39.6
12 Auburn 39.5
13 Missouri 39.1
14 Oklahoma St. 39.1
15 Ball St. 38.5
16 Indiana 38.4
17 Alabama 38.2
18 Washington 37.9
19 Boise St. 37.5
20 UCLA 36.9

So putting aside Steele’s “minimum necessary” statistics for a championship run for just a minute, what the numbers above from 2013 prove is that basically to be a top 10 college offense you have to score 40 points per game, and to be a top 20 offense you need 37 points per game.

Last season Miami, even after losing star RB Duke Johnson and big time WR Phillip Dorsett to injury, and with average play at QB, still had almost 34 points per game (33.8).

Clearly, what that indicates is that for the Hurricanes to be a top 20 offense they need to score one more FG per game. If UM can manage an extra TD per game they jump right into the top 10 in offense.

If Miami can do that, and it does not seem to be unreasonable given the offensive firepower on this team (and maybe add a little more time of possession to the mix), then I would be willing to bet that this year's Hurricane team (and its much maligned defense, playing rested and with the lead) will look a whole lot better in 2014.

Related articles

Miami's Men Of Steele

Room For Improvement

FSU, Auburn score points aplenty in different ways

By The Numbers: Defense In The Sunshine State

Comments

[The Dude]

Uno!

[Ohio_Cane]

Peter Ariz ‏@PeterAriz 6m

Tim Irvin is visiting Miami unofficially today #Canes

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | June 24, 2014 at 03:33 PM
----------------------------------

People are speculating that because this is Irvin's 2nd visit in back to back weeks, this is the "commit visit".

We'll find out soon if their speculation is right.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | June 24, 2014 at 03:42 PM

[Elliott]

Go Brazil!! Neymar is special with a unique ability to create space. Ronaldo is still the best in terms of dribbling ability but Neymar is one of a kind. I used to love playing soccer everyday enjoying this World Cup

[Terrance Sullivan]

Great stuff Soup. Much appreciated.

[86Cane]

Great stuff Soup. Much appreciated.

Posted by: Terrance Sullivan | June 24, 2014 at 04:03 PM

Will blog for food. LOL

[86Cane]

Let's see if I can get Phil Steele to comment. I sent him the article on Twitter. See if he likes it?

[Terrance Sullivan]

That would be cool Soup. Your pay is good beer and cigars.

[Elliott]

Unless we start paying to get these hybrid quarter backs that can scramble n throw we will b lucky to sniff 7 wins a year

[Ohio_Cane]

Unless we start paying to get these hybrid quarter backs that can scramble n throw we will b lucky to sniff 7 wins a year

Posted by: Elliott | June 24, 2014 at 04:30 PM
------------------------------------------

LOL

[CaneRock]

Great article SOUP. And like you alluded to on the last blog, we need IMMENSE improvement on 3rd down conversions.

Defensively, we can't afford any more of those 3 game slumps, where we give up 131 points...48 of which were to DUKE! That can't happen if we expect to win 10 or 11 games.

But like I've said before, my floor for this team is 9 Ws (No ACCCG), with a ceiling is 11 Ws (With ACCCG).

[86Cane]

Unless we start paying to get these hybrid quarter backs that can scramble n throw we will b lucky to sniff 7 wins a year

Posted by: Elliott | June 24, 2014 at 04:30 PM

Will U accept payment in the form of crab legs?

[86Cane]

Tony or UMike, if U are out there, I am interested in the offensive schemes, key offensive players and offensive coordinators and coaches, for these top 20 offensive teams:

6 Fresno St. 43.1
7 Marshall 42.4
8 East Carolina 40.2
11 Northern Ill. 39.6
15 Ball St. 38.5
16 Indiana 38.4

Can U do me some research or can everybody pick one and do it and email it to me at [email protected]?

I want an answer to the basic question:

How did these teams do MORE with LESS?

[86Cane]

Bruce Feldman ‏@BruceFeldmanCFB 15m

Odds on LeBron plays for next season: #Heat 61%; #Cavs 12%; #CLips 9%; #Rockets 6%; #Bulls 4%; #Lakers/#Knicks 3%; #Mavs 2%, per @RJinVegas

[Go Canes]

@BruceFeldmanCFB: New Scout recruiting rankings: 1. #Bama 2 #Tamu 3. #auburn 4. #PennState 5. #Clemson.. 7 of top 10 are from SEC: http://t.co/dgGq9vTdyl

[Harry Miller]

Soup, I am always out here. Thanks for the fishing info. we will have to do that and more when I come down to see my Canes. I have a good friend that lives in Haines city.
Guys thanks for all the good information. You guys are amazing and very much appreciated.

[Montreal_Cane]

New Canes bat signal is for 2015 OL Geron Christian of Trinity Catholic in Ocala

[Montreal_Cane]

Canes recruiting on a roll

[CaneRock]

"Attractive"...ehhhhhh:

Video: LSU Football Has A “Welcome Committee” Made Up Of Attractive Coeds Greeting Program’s Incoming Freshmen

http://network.yardbarker.com/college_football/article_external/video_lsu_football_has_a_welcome_committee_made_up_of_attractive_coeds_greeting_programs_incoming_freshmen/16611448?linksrc=story_sport_college%20football_module_head_16611448

[Go Canes]

@Safid_Deen: Canes get another commit today. This time: Therrell Gosier ll. RT @livinglegend13: I Am Officially Committed To University Of Miami 🙌🙌

[Go Canes]

@PeterAriz: Quick scouting report on new commit Therell Gosier - kid is a freak. Basketball player. Miami making a point of getting back into Ely

[Go Canes]

@PeterAriz: Gosier is another 6-5/6-6 receiver prospect. Miami continues to get huge at the position #Canes

[Elliott]

What's up wit Kaaya?? Any word is this gonna start??

[j.w.]

Gosier is 2015 or 2016? Loving life these days w/ all the recruiting hits

[86Cane]

You guys are amazing and very much appreciated.

Posted by: Harry Miller | June 24, 2014 at 05:32 PM

We do what we can. I sent you an email. Hope to see U soon!

#BassAssassin

[86Cane]

Harry...BTW I am 15-20 minutes from Haines City and then we have about 45 minutes to Lake Istokpoga. OldSkool would go with us for sure.

[86Cane]

Miami making a point of getting back into Ely

Posted by: Go Canes | June 24, 2014 at 08:33 PM

Remember I posted yesterday about The Creek and Ely being in a very productive area for talented players?

[Montreal-Cane]

From 247Sports.com.

Miami landed their third commitment of the day on Tuesday when Pompano Beach Ely receiver Therrell Gosier gave his pledge to the Hurricanes.

Gosier (6-6, 200) chose Miami over West Virginia, Clemson, Kentucky, South Florida and Nebraska.

“I am officially committed to the University of Miami,” Gossier tweeted Tuesday evening.

Gossier is rated a three-star prospect by 247Sports.com. He ranks as the No. 125 player in the state of Florida.

Gosier took an unofficial visit to Miami on Sunday. He is Miami’s 16th commit in the 2015 class and joins Emonee Spence as the wide receiver commits.

Gosier also plays basketball and finished his junior season averaging 11 points per game with ten rebounds per game.

[Montreal-Cane]

Therrell Gosier one s.

[Go Canes]

@TitoBenach: Full Story: Scott Patchan is a True Miami Hurricane

http://t.co/5U76uX6cHr

#Canes @CanesInSight @scott_patchan

[Go Canes]

@flasportsbuzz: Link: UM football snags four oral commitments: http://t.co/AglHj8rg0o

[Ohio_Cane]

I think Big Al said "f@ck it, Coley go get me a bag man!!"

This string of commits has been amazing.

[Ohio_Cane]

Someone on CIS posted this. Look at our WR corps lol

"Exactly this is awesome 5'10 CB beware lol.

Therrell Gosier 6'6
Darrell Langham 6' 5
David Njoku 6'4
Tyre Brady 6'3
Trayone Gray 6' 2
Emonee Spence 6' 2"

[The Dude]

Gray is a RB.

[Ohio_Cane]

Gray is a RB.

Posted by: The Dude | June 24, 2014 at 11:12 PM
------------------------------------------------

Not according to him. He says he's coming in as a WR, but will play wherever he's told to

[WWIN]

I think Big Al said "f@ck it, Coley go get me a bag man!!"

This string of commits has been amazing.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | June 24, 2014 at 11:01 PM

Exactly LMBO!!! Or either somebody is the new Nevin! Lol

[The Dude]

He'll be told he's a RB, lol, and a dang good one too.

[The Dude]

The other place I like him is at SS, but we have Bush and Carter there.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

And Hester.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

This is prime Hassan sighting time.

Hassan what regiment are you in?

[UMike]

How did these teams do MORE with LESS?

Posted by: 86Cane | June 24, 2014 at 05:07 PM

Better coaching.

[UMike]

After all the chatter on Twitter over the weekend coming out of the camps I had a feeling we would be getting come commits.. but 3 in a day??? Pretty sweet... I live the staffs interaction on IG and Twitter with the WelcomeToTheU pics... good stuff

[UMike]

I really like the Therrell Gosier pick up. Kid has great height and is fast for his size. I also like the fact that i would be the 2nd year in a row we get a kid out of Ely...

Not a big fan of the Geron Christian pick up. His only decent offer is from Arkansas... probably looked good in camp and got an offer.

I was reading that Jordan Cronkrite might not stick because of Walton moving to the 2015 class... but IDK if I believe that. Guess we will see.

[UMike]

And Hester.

Posted by: The Dude | June 25, 2014 at 02:20 AM

Hester is another freshman that is already pretty jacked as far as size.

[UMike]

Tito...

In the modern age of recruiting, it's rare to find a blue-chip prospect who will commit early and not waver. 2015 Tampa Freedom (Fla.) defensive end Scott Patchan is one of those rare players. His loyalty and outspoken nature have already made him a favorite among the Miami fan base.

“I think it’s an honor to be considered that by fans. As I’ve said before, I’m only a ‘recruiter’ right now, but if I could I would pad up today and go to the University of Miami. I have a lot of love for the University of Miami and I think I’m very lucky to be in that position that I am. I have to thank my parents for that. I get to go to my dad's college and my ultimate goal is to win a national championship. My dad has two rings and my brother Matt has one ring, so I have to get one too (laughs).”

Patchan has made it clear on Twitter how much he enjoys being apart of the Hurricane family and has made an effort to reach out to other commits. However, he's been far less friendly to the recruits who have decommitted.

“Well the kid, I forgot what his name was. He was a commit to Miami and he followed me and I followed him back and were ‘DM’ing” each other about the University of Miami. He was asking me questions and telling me he was excited. The next day he flips from Miami, so I felt that the conversation we had was pretty much pointless. I basically called him out. I really don’t see why you would want to go to a 4-8 school anyways. Miami over the last four years has improved every year. I wish I could say the same for Florida.”

The 6’5, 228-pound edge rusher clarified his stance on what a true commitment means.

“When I went through the whole recruiting process, Miami was the favorite, but I waited for myself to have all the big offers and everything and then I came down to talk to my family and I made my commitment. Unless something changes, lets say Coach Golden gets a job in the NFL, I think everyone would be okay with me taking a step back and reevaluating my options before I make a decision. But Coach Golden hasn’t left and he’s still at the University of Miami. For example, a kid like Kevin Feder committing to Miami only to decommit to Ohio State. Why not wait until you get all your offers and then commit? I just don’t understand it. I just feel like you’re making yourself look stupid.”

Patchan is obviously part of a legacy as his father, Matt Patchan, played for the Hurricanes from 1984 to 1987. It means a lot to both father and son that Scott is carrying on the legacy.

“Going to Miami, his school, I think I made him very proud. He gets to watch his son put on the same or similar uniform that he did and wear the same U logo on the helmet that he did. He’s very proud of that just like he’s proud of my brother Matt, who’s playing for the Buccaneers now and for my other brother who plays basketball at Nova Southeastern University.”

Patchan's Cane memories already go deep, but he's excited to make some more of his own.

“I want to win national championships just like he did. I grew up watching a team that was very successful. A lot of people say ‘You don’t remember all of that’, but I remember sitting in front of the TV with my dad and uncle who both played for Miami. When the '30 for 30' came out on The U, my dad saw a lot of people he knew including Mario Cristobal and Art Kehoe. He made a lot of memories in college and I just want to do what he did. I feel like my dad is very proud of what we have done, but there's a lot more to accomplish and I got a long way to go before it’s all said and done.”

http://www.canesinsight.com/content/2405-Scott-Patchan-is-a-True-Miami-Hurricane

[Go Canes]

If you don't follow hurricanes football on twitter you should. Great series of videos and pics showing our guys working out before the sun is even out.

Here's one. Berrios knees look good!

@CanesFootball: Freshman WR Braxton Berrios getting after it #RISEandGRIND https://t.co/ah6PV9umVM

[Go Canes]

@CanesFootball: Freshman OL Nick Linder power cleaning by strobe light #RISEandGRIND https://t.co/3F2i2vXUgv

[Go Canes]

@CanesFootball: New guys Darrion Owens and Malik Rosier #RISEandGRIND https://t.co/9EtXDTNzT9

[UMike]

Go Canes.. you like all the "WelcomeToTheU pis? Pretty cool huh

[UMike]

^^ pics**

[CaneRock]

Njoku might be a bigger version of Horace Copeland, I remember Hi-C used to be an elite high jump guy.