Penalties and Turnovers: Why U Must Prevent

In our next look into the many ways that Al Golden can improve the University of Miami football team from last year to this season we decided to look at the all important penalties and turnovers as one key measures of potential success during any particular football game or season.

You probably have heard it said by head coaches many times over the years:

"The first thing we have to do is to not beat ourselves."

And, as you probably already know, among the most common ways teams "beat themselves" is by commiting penalties at inopportune times and turning the ball over to the other team. Both of these unnecessary and unwated mistakes can be drive killers and at times huge momentum breakers.

Let us now look more closely at a few of these stats and exactly where the University of Miami ranks among their peers. We will start with penalties:

• About one-third, or 39 of the 123 teams, averaged 5 or less penalties per game last season.
• Only 28 teams averaged 40 yards or less in penalties/game in 2013.
• By comparison, Alabama averaged 4.85 penalties and 40 yards/game.
• Miami ranked #61 of 123 teams in penalties with an average of 5.46/game.
• Miami ranked #49 in penalty yards/game with an average of 44.77 yards/game in 2013.

Now let's take a look at the critical turnovers for and against and the corresponding margins:

• UM ranked #32 of 123 teams in turnover margin.
• Teams ranked in the top 10 in turnover margin had < 18 turnovers.
• UM turned the ball over 22 times in 2013.
• Teams ranked in the top 10 in turnover margin had > 30 takeaways.
• UM took the ball away from their opponents 27 times.
• As a result, UM had a +5 in turnovers while those teams in the top 10 had at least +13 turnovers.

While it can be argued that turnovers are much more critical than penalties in deciding football games it can also easily be said that both of these factors' impact on a game's outcome cannot be ignored.

What it all comes down to is that playing disciplined, mistake-free football really does matter. So we have established the following criteria on which to measure the Hurricanes' success in 2014:

• UM must average 5 or fewer penalties/game (5.46 in 2013).
• UM must average 40 yards or fewer/game (44.77 in 2013).
• UM must have fewer than 20 turnovers on offense (22 in 2013).
• UM must create more than 30 turnovers on defense (27 in 2013).
• UM must increase their tunover ratio from +5 to +10 in 2014.
• UM must increase their turnover ratio to between .8-1.0 per game during this coming season (.4 in 2013).

For your Miami Hurricanes what that means is that by decreasing penalties to less than 5 per game and less that 40 yards per game, and increasing their turnover ratio by 5 and just a small percentage per game, may be all the difference between a winning and losing season in 2014.

Related articles

By The Numbers: Focus On The Positive

UM vs UNC: The Game

Penalties and Turnovers Tell the Tale

Brian Billick spells out the recipe for success, but will the Lions follow it?

Comments

[UMike]

Yo

[Keoki]

Deuce

F'the Turds!
GO CANES!!!

[Lurker]

I don't follow recruiting much until a week or so before signing day, but a couple of gaytor acquaintances I know swear that JJ is theirs, signed, sealed, delivered. I don't know what they actually do know, but they were claiming it's a done deal. Take it with a grain of salt and fwif

[dj moonbat]

So Miami's doing better at penalty yardage than at number of penalties. That means more dumb penalties, and fewer willful ones. False starts, offsides, illegal formations -- dumb stuff. Not much of the stuff that's related to being too amped up.

[Terrance Sullivan]

Excellent piece Soup, love the breakdown and comparison's to what we need to do to become elite again as in the other parts that U have been doing it clearly shows the small adjustments and attention to details is what will take us from good to great. We definately need to create at least 5 more turnovers this season and commit 5 less turnovers this season. Have about one less penalty per game and we will definately see our win total go up a couple wins. and take us let's say from 9 wins to 11 wins. Go Canes!

[SOUP]

False starts, offsides, illegal formations -- dumb stuff. Not much of the stuff that's related to being too amped up.

Posted by: dj moonbat | July 02, 2014 at 10:05 AM

DING, DING DING...WE HAVE A WINNER!

[Ohio_Cane]

Lurker, gayturd fans say that because they have T-Rob and JJ's relationship with him is very good. They think they get anyone T-Rob has a good relationship with. Granted, they get most of them, but JJ has been pro-miami for a long, long time (4+ years).

I'd be surprised if he doesn't pick UM, but see Bama getting him over UF if it's not us.

[UMike]

Ohio.. I was thinking same thing

[SOUP]

and take us let's say from 9 wins to 11 wins. Go Canes!

Posted by: Terrance Sullivan | July 02, 2014 at 10:09 AM

YUP.

Based on my research so far here are the "Canespace Rules" (identified criteria for winning) for 2014 so far:

1. Points/game: On offense UM must go from 33.8 ppg in 2013 to 37 ppg in 2014, a difference of +3.2 ppg.

2. Points/game: On defense UM must go from allowing 26.8 ppg to 24 ppg, a difference of -2.8 ppg.

3. Third Down Conversion rates: On offense UM must go from a .352 conversion rate up to a .420 rate.

4. Third Down Conversion rates: On defense UM must go from a .419 conversion rate allowed down to a 3.50 rate.

5. Penalties: UM must comply with the Canespace "5/500 Rule". That means 5 or fewer penalties/game (from 5.46) and under 500 yards (from 582) in penalties this season.

6. Turnovers and T/O Margin: UM must comply with the Canespace "20/30 Rule". That means no more than 20 turnovers on offense (22 in 2013) and at least 30 takeaways on defense (27 in 2013).

If UM does these 6 simple, minor improvements we will win at least 10 games and maybe even more in 2014!

Now I have a meeting to go to with Coach Golden in 30 minutes to go over all of this with him so wish me luck!

[UMike]

2. Point/game: On defense UM must go from allowing 26.8 ppg to 24 ppg, a difference of -2.8 ppg.

Posted by: SOUP | July 02, 2014 at 10:24 AM

Mainly they need to not give up 40 or more to average offensive teams lol

[Terrance Sullivan]

Soup I completely agree with everything U just posted bruh ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^.

[SOUP]

Are there other areas any of U want me to research that U feel are CRITICAL to winning in 2014?

[SOUP]

Mainly they need to not give up 40 or more to average offensive teams lol

Posted by: UMike | July 02, 2014 at 10:33 AM

Don't do that to me man. I am talking pure math and strict science and all U can do is talk straight trash! LOL

[Go Canes]

US World Cup record: 1-2-1

Boy, canes fans have sure warmed up to losing, eh?

Keep waving your poms, GC.

Posted by: BEERicane | July 01, 2014 at 11:18 PM

___________________________________________

Hadn't seen this before.

This was really funny to read.

Beer's slogan for next World Cup:

Go USA! (Unless you don't win then you suck.)

[SOUP]

Sacks? Special Teams? First downs?

[UMike]

haha SOUP

[Go Canes]

I agree with all of what you wrote as well Soup.

To me it's all going to come down to 3rd down.

[UMike]

I agree with the SOUPster.. just that points allowed can be tricky. The average doesn't matter so much as allowing to many points in particular games. If we shut out A&M and Arkansas State, but allow 40 to Louisville and Nebraska we will be 2-2 and "only" be giving up 20 ppg. Not trying to pick at it or talk trash, just that stat can be tricky is all I mean.

[Ohio_Cane]

Sacks? Special Teams? First downs?

Posted by: SOUP | July 02, 2014 at 10:38 AM
------------------------------------------

I think 3rd down O and D really is 75% of our problem.

[Terrance Sullivan]

Soup I think have covered it very well. Its very enlightening when we all break this stuff down. Can't wait to break down the pcoming season and schedule and predictions on wins and losses and what this 2014 team should be able to accomplish and what our expectations should be. Go Canes!

[SOUP]

Chris Freet ‏@ChrisFreet 1h

w/ UF series official, that means @CanesHoops will host Gators, Cuse, Louisville & Duke in 2015-16. Get on board NOW http://CanesTix.com

[SOUP]

To me it's all going to come down to 3rd down.

Posted by: Go Canes | July 02, 2014 at 10:41 AM

I think 3rd down O and D really is 75% of our problem.

Posted by: Ohio_Cane | July 02, 2014 at 10:44 AM

Well that makes at least two of U with the same mindset. Interesting.

[UMike]

Its sad when fans have a hard time finding confidence in a Miami defense to get off the field on 3rd and long. So many times we had them right where we wanted them and time after time would just give up a huge chuck and let the drive keep going. So yes.. 3rd down will be critical.

[Terrance Sullivan]

Since my guy UMike brought it up. Our Canes gave upp 40 or more points 3 times in that 3 game losing streak losing 41-14 to FSU, 42-24 to Virginia Tech, and 48-31 to Duke. that was also 3 of the 4 losses we had last season we also lost 36-9 to Louisville in the Bowl game. Ironically we scored 40 or more points 5 times 77-7 to Savannah State, 49-21 to USF, 45-30 to Georgia Tech, 45-26to Virginia, 41-31 to Pittsburgh all wins obviously.Go Canes!

[SOUP]

Not trying to pick at it or talk trash, just that stat can be tricky is all I mean.

Posted by: UMike | July 02, 2014 at 10:44 AM

I agree, they are ALL tricky (read: can be misleading) at times really depending on how U look at it.

For example even getting a first down on third down when you are up by 17 late in the third quarter is not quite as big a deal as when you get a first down leading by 3 with 2 minutes left in the fourth.

[SOUP]

So yes.. 3rd down will be critical.

Posted by: UMike | July 02, 2014 at 10:51 AM

Remember back in the day when our defense had the other team in a third and long and U just couldn't wait for them to snap the ball because U just knew that the BIG DOG was gonna eat (sacks, fumbles and INTS)?

Yeah, me too.

[SOUP]

TSully...35 points is like the magic number.

If you score 35 U win like 90% of the time.

If you give up 35 points U lose like 90% of the time.

[Terrance Sullivan]

Soup Yes Sir ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^.

[SOUP]

I started reading this but I got dizzy after a few paragraphs:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

[Go Canes]

I know I've said this more times than I care to remember but, we just haven't had the players to get off the field on third down.

It all starts with the four up front. No pass rush on 3rd and 5 or more and no DTs able to clog the the middle in short yardage and you're never going to get it done.

We are dramatically upgrading EVERY vacated position on defense while infusing a tremendous amount of experienced, talented players up front, including our last commit at linebacker.

Add players like Chad Thomas, a maturing beast in AQM and an ability to finally be more aggressive and I see a lot of defensive improvement coming.

[UMike]

I know I've said this more times than I care to remember but, we just haven't had the players to get off the field on third down.

Posted by: Go Canes | July 02, 2014 at 11:03 AM

Dont agree at all.. we may not have been deep, but we shouldnt of gave up 3rd and long to mediocre teams and players... OVER and over again.

And sadly, this will be another class were we do no get an elite DT prospect. I like the players we have picked up at DE, great players there..but we continues to miss on big time DT's.

[SOUP]

I know I've said this more times than I care to remember but, we just haven't had the players to get off the field on third down.

Posted by: Go Canes | July 02, 2014 at 11:03 AM

Yes AND no. I agree that UM has lacked talent on the DL in recent years (see lack of NFL draftees) but I also think that we have also lacked the proper scheme, coaching and aggressiveness at times too (See Franklin/D'Onofrio/Golden).

[CaneRock]

Posted by: UMike | July 02, 2014 at 11:09 AM

UMike, save ya' breath big dawg, SOME! people NEVER! think it's the DC's fault...NEVER!...EVA EVA! LMAO!

[SOUP]

U HAVE BEEN WARNED:

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[Go Canes]

I'm not saying the coaches don't have a lot of blame here as well. I'm not a coach D fan. I just think he and the rest of our staff should be afforded the opportunity to fail or succeed with a true roster of players, not what we have fielded the last two years.

From what I saw all season, they didn't trust their guys enough to blitz more because the results weren't there when they did. They didn't get to the QB nearly enough and if they didn't we had Highsmith, Rodgers and the rest out there unable to sustain their coverage.

You have to get pressure to be effective on defense. We did not have the players to do that on even a semi-consistent basis.

[CaneRock]

Just to show ya'll how silly the "we haven't had the players to get off the field on third down" argument is, look at the VT game. Defensively, we blew that game because of blown assignments, and HORRENDOUS tackling. Look at that one play where the RB broke all those tackles for the TD...it was 3rd & 17!, I'll say it again...3rd & 17!, and we give up a 30+ yard TD! And every player that missed a tackle on that play, will be KEY players on defense THIS YEAR...so that blows that whole "upgrading EVERY vacated postion on defense" argument out the water...BOOM! LMAO!

[SinisterCane]

I'm not a coach D fan. I just think he and the rest of our staff should be afforded the opportunity to fail or succeed with a true roster of players, not what we have fielded the last two years.

Posted by: Go Canes | July 02, 2014 at 11:42 AM

How about succeeding for a change, the coaching staff already have the FAIL part covered and please stop blaming the players

[SOUP]

Have U ever noticed that some people just have a really hard time being positive and happy or even hopeful?

[SinisterCane]

Have U ever noticed that some people just have a really hard time being positive and happy or even hopeful?

Posted by: SOUP | July 02, 2014 at 11:53 AM

I chill out but blaming the players is getting old. Happy Impendence Day to all

[roachcane77]

Remember back in the day when our defense had the other team in a third and long and U just couldn't wait for them to snap the ball because U just knew that the BIG DOG was gonna eat (sacks, fumbles and INTS)?
Yeah, me too.
Posted by: SOUP | July 02, 2014 at 10:56 AM

Yeah SOUP, I remember those days well… we had an AGGRESSIVE D philosophy!
Not the bend, bend, bend, and eventually BREAK defense that we field now.

[SOUP]

If U find it hard to be happy just click here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Sxv-sUYtM

[[email protected]@ne]

Its a lot better to be in our lanes in their back field than to be in our lanes and give up ten yards. Im old school ...lol

[roachcane77]

Its a lot better to be in our lanes in their back field than to be in our lanes and give up ten yards. Im old school ...lol
Posted by: [email protected]@ne | July 02, 2014 at 11:59 AM

Uh Huh… what HE said.

[SOUP]

Roach...I hear U dude, I hear U.

[Go Canes]

Those aggressive defenses were always loaded with NFL talent.

Has this one been?

Other than Denzel, was there a SINGLE player in our junior or senior classes the last two seasons who you looked at and said wow that guy is a beast.

I didn't see any. Neither did the NFL obviously.

I do see a lot of them coming up. Which is why I choose to be positive instead of letting two crap games last season ruin what my perspective on what we are building.

[Terrance Sullivan]

It's also good to not go 3 and out like 5 times in a row or go 0-11 on 3rd downs or only score 7 points despite having 13 possessions but lol all most people want to opine about was the glory days of defense hell i miss having a real offense of yesteryear. I guess I am in the minority on that one.

[CaneRock]

Have U ever noticed that some people just have a really hard time being positive and happy or even hopeful?

Posted by: SOUP | July 02, 2014 at 11:53 AM

I'm all of the above...in my VT example, I pointed out things that were fixable...tackling & assignments. We take care of those 2 parts of the game, we would've had 10, maybe even 11 wins last season (Duke).

[Mountain Cane]

I don't think the penalties per game stat is a meaningful predictor of success. Obviously, a major infraction at a key time can determine the game and excessive mental errors won't help.

But if you look at the low penalty teams, they mostly stink.

http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/penalties-per-game

[Go Canes]

And for the record, I'm not blaming the players. If they dogged it out there I would, but they all busted it to be the best they could.

But not being good enough is a fact, not a dig or an insult.

And Terrence's post is once again spot on. When your D is reeling you don't do absolutely nothing like in the Duke game.
And when your outmanned D is keeping you in games you don't do absolutely nothing like you did in the Louisville game.

And when your D is playing lights out, getting turnovers and knocking the starting QB out of the game, you don't do nothing like you did in the Florida game.

Everyone was responsible for those losses.

We needed to improve everywhere.

I think we are definitely on our way, for the first time in a llllooooooooonnnnnngggg time.

[SOUP]

Brian Billick, former offensive coordinator of the record-setting 1998 Vikings offense and former Head Coach of the Baltimore Ravens during the rise of the ‘Purple Reign’ defense was among the first to make those terms commonplace.

In Billick’s day, there was a rise in public interest related to the massive amounts of data and statistical analyses that formed predictive indicators of wins and losses. Billick’s philosophy was simplified the numbers to two key concepts: win the turnover battle and make more explosive plays (explosive plays typically equate to plays of 20+ yards) than your opponent.

In his paradigm, teams who were consistently successful in these two areas trended towards winning games significantly more than teams that were deficient in these areas. Billick coined his construct the ‘toxic differential.’