It Is Better To Be Lucky Than Good

Some people simply don't believe in luck.

Some people think that you make your own luck.

Some people think the harder you work the luckier you get.

No matter whether you believe if Lady Luck exists or not, if you attended or watched the University of Miami's game against Georgia Tech on a sloppy, rain soaked field at Hard Rock Stadium you may have to accept that the Hurricanes got more than a little bit lucky in beating the Yellow Jackets by one point.

Yes, somehow, someway, and maybe with some luck, UM squeaked out a 25-24 victory over GT and move their record to 5-0 on the season and remain in the hunt for their first ACC Championship.

Another slow start and lackluster first half performance by Miami that has characterized Mark Richt's tenure at UM and especially during the 2017 season left the heavily favored Hurricanes looking desperately for a little luck to swing in their direction late in the game.

So we now fast forward to late in the fourth quarter when your Miami Hurricanes were in as bad a position as they have been all season, a season already filled with some seriously lucky second half comebacks. UM got the ball at it's own 10 yard line with just 2:30 left on the clock and one last chance to, well for lack of a better phrase, get lucky.

UM QB Malik Rosier, who had been dodging the Tech defense and the sudden but intermittent rain showers all day long, had looked anything but impressive during the game in front of the hyped up and very loud home crowd.

Yet after a couple of safe, quick screen passes to WR Braxton Berrios and TE Christopher Herndon he led the Hurricanes to near midfield. Things were looking up and Lady Luck appeared to be smiling on the team from Miami.

Then, after a couple of incomplete passes and a really curious play call on third down and 11 (run draw play), the Canes were down to their last chance to really see if luck was on their side. And sure enough, on fourth down and 11 to go, Lady Luck showed up and blessed Miami with Darrell Langham. 

Yes, the same tall, fiesty wide receiver who just happened to catch the game-winning touchdown pass with just six seconds to go against FSU last week in Tallahassee. Maybe luck comes in pairs, who knows?

Rosier dropped back to pass on the sloppy, chewed up field and with good protection heaved a long pass down the right sideline in Langham's direction.

Two Tech defenders were all over the play in tight coverage and converged on the ball as it seemed to hang in the air for a very long time. It looked as though the ball may be intercepted or at least fall incomplete and that the Canes would finally be out of luck and any chance at an ACC title.

It was at that very moment that lovely Lady Luck removed her lace veil and kissed Langham squarely on the lips.

The ball first bounced off of Langham's hands, then off the helmet of one of the Yellow Jacket defenders and then up in the air just high enough so that he could manage to snatch it out of the jaws of defeat and into his waiting arms as he fell backwards onto the muddy turf.

Langham's remarkable, spectacular, no make that lucky, first down catch would propel the Hurricanes to a 24 yard, game winning field goal a few seconds later by Michael Badgley with only four seconds to play. 

When it was over, it was hard to tell if one team deserved victory more than the other. But it was pretty easy to see which one was luckier than the other.

Comments

[BigWindyCane1]

Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics

After Clemson lost and Miami won this weekend, the Hurricanes are the favorites to win the ACC.

[30CINCO]

#DaHale
@DavidHaleESPN
By ESPN’s strength of record metric:
1. UGA
2. TCU
3. Bama
4. Miami
5. Penn St
6. Clemson
—
13. Ohio St

[canezilla]

LOVE MY CANES .We beat a down in the dumps fsu(finally) and a average gt team.. I"ll take the 5-0.We should be 7-0 heading into our 2 biggest games..Just hope we are ready..See u guys Saturday..

[Ron Mayflower]

CMR on end zone fades:

* Regarding end-zone fades to smaller receivers — rather than big targets like Darrell Langham or Chris Herndon — Richt faulted ball placement. “We had three shots, and every single time [Mike] Harley was in good position if the ball was thrown where it should be thrown, and it just was not,” Richt said. “Big guys in the end zone are good too, no doubt about that.”

We know what folks say about running in to 8 man fronts or loaded boxes. One cannot fault Rosier, but, we would be explosive if he has a bit better accuracy. IIRC, we are second in ACC in total offense.

[1mg of Epi]

But to answer your question yes he was until Mother Nature stepped in lol! I'm not sold on Diaz but if you are cool. I'm not calling for him to be fired but I think people need to slow down on praising him

Posted by: WWIN | October 15, 2017 at 06:02 PM

How can u not be sold on Diaz? The man makes the right adjustments, and usually before the half. What else can u ask for?

Tough crowd I guess.

[Go Canes!]

FIFY:

How can u not be sold on Richt? The man makes the right adjustments, and usually before the half. What else can u ask for?

Tough crowd I guess.

Posted by: 1mg of Epi | October 16, 2017 at 09:47 AM

[1mg of Epi]

Give me a break with these hyper critical views of our offense.

Posted by: Go Canes! | October 16, 2017 at 06:35 AM

I don't consider those listed items, because come the 3rd quarter Richt starts calling those plays. Formations. Etc.

Also.. anybody know why he never uses motion? Or tempo?

[Go Canes!]

This state is for Epi's eyes and Epi's eyes only:

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game

[1mg of Epi]

Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics

After Clemson lost and Miami won this weekend, the Hurricanes are the favorites to win the ACC.
Posted by: BigWindyCane1 | October 16, 2017 at 08:44 AM

Wuuuuuuuuuuut??

I dunno bout that, but it sure is fun to be relevant again.

[1mg of Epi]

Go!!! That's my point!!!

I'm not saying he doesn't do these things! I'm wondering why he waits til the second half!!l a

But I do wonder why no motion or tempo. Is there a Xs Os reason?

[1mg of Epi]

FIFY:

How can u not be sold on Richt? The man makes the right adjustments, and usually before the half. What else can u ask for?

Tough crowd I guess.

Posted by: 1mg of Epi | October 16, 2017 at 09:47 AM

Posted by: Go Canes! | October 16, 2017 at 09:52 AM

Patently false.
Sheeeeeeet even the announcers mention it, and they never criticize a coach.

[86Cane]

we are second in ACC in total offense.

Posted by: Ron Mayflower | October 16, 2017 at 09:40 AM

There are lies, damn lies and then there are stats.

If that makes you feel better then good for you.

Watching our offense is painful at times and every honest person knows that and will admit it. That pain is self inflicted by by a combination of a simplistic scheme, poor play calling and poor execution. All you have to do on any given Saturday is watch a hand full of college football games and then watch us play to see the stark contrast and major difference.

If you sat in the upper deck as I do and could see the routes being run and the tight coverage that GT had on almost every receiver on every down you would understand better. Most of the time nobody was even close to getting any separation much less getting open. GT defenders knew the routes as well as the UM receivers did.

It ain't rocket science and it is clearly obvious to even the most casual fan. Are we all happy we won? Sure. Are we satisfied that this is the best we can do on offense? Not even close!

[86Cane]

But I do wonder why no motion or tempo. Is there a Xs Os reason?

Posted by: 1mg of Epi | October 16, 2017 at 10:02 AM

This a very good and valid question. Tweet it to Joe Zagacki or DBJ to ask the coach for the Hurricane Hotline show.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

I remember back when we had Leggett, he had the worst hands. We used to debate on the blog if maybe he really needed glasses. It got so bad I said the ONLY time I'd throw his way is on fade routes. I wonder if the plays being called are because Rosier isn't trusted to be accurate in the middle, and a punt is better than a TO. Also throwing lots of fades and deep balls should move the safeties back a bit, which would help out the RPO and give Richards an opening and a head of steam like against WV.

[CoCane]

The onside kick is high risk. A low percentage of them are converted. Consider this...

You score 10 unanswered points to end the half 13-14. You have the momentum. Why risk it on a low percentage play that is meant for desperation? Like if you need the ball back late in the game. Up by 10, with your defense dominating the game is a good time to try it to get separation. If you don't recover, they get get good field position. Our defense didn't ball good enough to risk the field position. Well, GaTech scored a TD.

The timing wasn't right for that call.

Bad luck? Maybe...

In any part of life if you do stupid sh*t, f*cked up sh*t usually happens. Richt made a stupid call and paid for it.

Lucky for him, the players bailed him out of a sh*t storm of criticism.

[WWIN]

Posted by: Go Canes! | October 16, 2017 at 07:32 AM

True but if I'm going to attempt a pass to Cager it would be in the red zone and not in between the 20's

[CoCane]

This was a good, big win.

[Go Canes!]

Posted by: 86Cane | October 16, 2017 at 10:14 AM

Quick question. How much meaningful game experience do Langham, Cager, Harley, Thomas, Homer, Gaynor and Rosier have combined?

How many starts?

I'm guessing, including Rosier's six, they have about....six.

Yet we are somehow we are NUMBER ONE in the nation in second half scoring despite being without our two 1st Team All conference players. Don't you think you need to run a more simplified offense with that glaring inexperience on your offense?

The reality is that we are kicking ass when it counts, despite Walton and Richards playing injured or not at all for the entire season.

Now that ain't no lie.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: Go Canes! | October 16, 2017 at 10:33 AM

You make a bunch of really good points, but until we really control a game against good competition this year (like WVU last year) Richt is going to get his OC criticism. We should have scored over 30 on GT imo.

As far as the onside kick goes, it took balls. I like my coach to have balls.

[Ron Mayflower]

Are we satisfied that this is the best we can do on offense? Not even close!

Posted by: 86Cane | October 16, 2017 at 10:14 AM

I don't think anyone is satisfied with the team's performance. But, in spite of all the lack of imaginations we still have the second most total offense in ACC.

The question I have is how come all of a sudden plays start clicking and we go in spurts of scoring and long periods of drought? Is it due to execution or play calling?

On our second offensive possession, Mullins should have caught the ball for a TD and Harley also had the chance. I also thought I saw a JT end-around on the same possession which didn't go far?

[TruCane81]

The thing about it was... if he kicked it long enough and we got it what would people have said then? So if you would have been happy had we recovered it you should be mad at the execution not the call.

Posted by: WWIN | October 16, 2017 at 06:52 AM

My problem with it was timing.

We figured out their offense after two easy scores.

We marched down right before half took all the momentum and basically tie into.the locker room.

We were the better team and were beginning to prove it.

There was no reason to panic.

Just keep playing football.

[Ohio_Cane]

GT coming into Miami:

Yards per game: 479.2
Rush yards: 396
Scoring: 36.5

Saturday:

Total yards: 281
Rush yards: 226
Points: 24

[Ohio_Cane]

...And were it not for that horrible onside kick that they scored on, we hold them to 17 points.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: Ron Mayflower | October 16, 2017 at 10:38 AM

The last drive against GT looked pretty good until there was a call on Mullins? for an illegal block. It looked to me like Richt made them move a safety down after like 5 or 6 straight screens. It still came down to luck, and thats really that part grinding my gears. It shouldnt have come down to another lucky play. Dont get me wrong, I'm super happy it happened, but we should have already been up 7 imo.

[CoCane]

Richt loves to throw to the sidelines. It's always been his style to pound the run, while stretching you vertically on the outside. if CB gives a big cushion and our WR gets a good block. You'll break a lot of big runs when the edge is sealed.

Teams know this and sit their safeties deep. He wants to break your will. He wants you to know you can't stop, what you know is coming. But...

He's leaving a lot easy yards and 1st downs on the field, by not taking what is given to him underneath.

My 2 pennies

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: TruCane81 | October 16, 2017 at 10:39 AM

Was it a panic, or just trying to do something fun for your guys? Something cocky and brash?

[1mg of Epi]

This a very good and valid question. Tweet it to Joe Zagacki or DBJ to ask the coach for the Hurricane Hotline show.

Posted by: 86Cane | October 16, 2017 at 10:19 AM

Done. Joe said he'll have mark call me this afternoon.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: CoCane | October 16, 2017 at 10:42 AM

I think you sum it up perfectly. The only thing I wonder is it a) Richt doesnt see the open middle, or b) Richt doesnt trust Rosier's accuracy enough to let him go there?

[RCCF]

Problem is Rosier is a Game Manager
Fans want a Prolific Scorer..
We Don't Have That..
Moving Forward his ball placement needs to improve Vastly

12%

[CalgaryCane]

Posted by: CoCane | October 16, 2017 at 10:42 AM

Exactly!

[CoCane]

Overall Richt is doing his thang.

Respect.

Rosier is inconsistent with his accuracy.

The OL is good but not dominant.

The WR's are still developing.

Walton is out for the year.

Only 4 seniors in the 2 deep on offense.

4 1st year starters at DB (including Delaney, his 1st year learning our system).

3 soph LB.

Only 4 seniors in the 2 deep on defense.

I didn't expect dominance this year. We're 5-0 and ranked in the top 10. All we could ask for. I'm loving it.

Category 3 and getting stronger!

[canezilla]

It ain't rocket science and it is clearly obvious to even the most casual fan. Are we all happy we won? Sure. Are we satisfied that this is the best we can do on offense? Not even close!

Posted by: 86Cane | October 16, 2017 at 10:14 AM
EXACTLY!!!!. I watch other games and think, We have better talent the play calling is 1,0000x's better.. We really do not use our weapons as we should..I will say this now..I bet coach will run homer into the ground vs cuse

[86Cane]

Now that ain't no lie.

Posted by: Go Canes! | October 16, 2017 at 10:33 AM

We are arguing different points. I can easily agree that all of your points are valid, but they do not invalidate or eliminate other valid points being made. Multiple things can all be true at the same time, not just one is true so the other must be false. Just because the Sun rises in the East does not mean that water is not wet!

[86Cane]

Done. Joe said he'll have mark call me this afternoon.

Posted by: 1mg of Epi | October 16, 2017 at 10:45 AM

Tell Mark he left his sunglasses at my house again. Ask him if he wants me to drop them at the office or will he come by after work?

[TruCane81]

We know what folks say about running in to 8 man fronts or loaded boxes. One cannot fault Rosier, but, we would be explosive if he has a bit better accuracy. IIRC, we are second in ACC in total offense.

Posted by: Ron Mayflower | October 16, 2017 at 09:40 AM

This is absolutely correct.

When Malik is cold, he can put the ball all over the place. For the most part he misses where only our guy can catch it so that works.

When he warms up, he throws many beautiful passes.

CMR has an offense that will work for HUGE PLAYS.

All he has to do is get him going earlier making easier shorter throws to get going.

When we were down 14-3, We came put on first down and called a beautifully designed playaction pass that resulted in a virtually wide open reciever ( I believe Langham) running a corner route on Rosiers right side.

It would have been a huge gain but Malik missed. The call was perfect strategically speaking but did not take into account Malik's previous struggles and his tendency to be inaccurate downfield early.

OUR QB for 2017 is good but inconsistent with accuracy and does not make elite reads. He still gives us alot to work with and has CONSISTENTLY overcome serious adversity from his first start two years ago onward.

He has a high round tight end that saved the game two weeks straight. Without Herndon, Langham does not even get a chance.

Make Herndon first read consistently in the short middle, hash area and flats and Maliks accuracy will settle in much sooner in games.

[raizecane]

Shout outs to CGNC, KYCane, Soup, Thirsty and Raize and the whole crew I met today. I love my "U" fam!

Legion for life!

Posted by: CoCane | October 14, 2017 at 08:19 PM

************************************

It was great seeing / meeting you guys as well. In addition, it was great seeing Go Canes and wild man himself, Canezilla.

5-0 BABY!!!!

[RCCF]

Herndon is HIGHLY underused!

12%

[86Cane]

The question I have is how come all of a sudden plays start clicking and we go in spurts of scoring and long periods of drought? Is it due to execution or play calling?

Posted by: Ron Mayflower | October 16, 2017 at 10:38 AM

Read my previous comment. It is all of the above.

1. Simplistic offensive scheme
2. Poor play calling
3. Poor execution

I am fairly certain that more practice and experience and effort can address #3.

I am also fairly certain at this point that nothing will be done to address #1 or #2 above.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: CoCane | October 16, 2017 at 11:02 AM

Perfect post.

[Go Canes!]

Posted by: CoCane | October 16, 2017 at 11:02 AM

There it is right there senoras and senores.

[30CINCO]

Susan Miller Degnan @smillerdegnan
NEWS: UM football game at North Carolina kickoff was just announced for high NOON. It will be televised by ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU.

[VfB_Cane]

Alabama has outscored opponents in the first quarter 100-9.

If the Canes could accomplish just a fraction of that, it would do wonders for my mental and physical health, not to mention life expectancy.

[Go Canes!]

Posted by: 86Cane | October 16, 2017 at 11:26 AM

You say we’re arguing different points yet your observations in no way reflect the on field results.

Are you saying we should be number one in the nation in second half scoring by even more? Should we be 1st instead of 2nd in the ACC in scoring?

And what teams do you see that week in and out are doing so much more with equal or less?

[Go Canes!]

Posted by: VfB_Cane | October 16, 2017 at 12:26 PM

Imo we aren’t there yet. We need 2-3 more recruiting classes from this staff to fill in holes and add much needed depth.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

Posted by: Go Canes! | October 16, 2017 at 12:45 PM

If the 2019 class is as good as the 2018 class, we'll be young but as talented as anyone. If the 2020 class is another top 5, we will be perennial Coastal champs for 10 years, ACC Champs 5 or 6 times and will play for a couple of titles.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

^^^ And that's if Richt isnt a great OC. We'd just have too much damn talent for anyone to keep up with, especially on D, where we'd be a top 3 defense every year on talent alone.

[86Cane]

If the Canes could accomplish just a fraction of that, it would do wonders for my mental and physical health, not to mention life expectancy.

Posted by: VfB_Cane | October 16, 2017 at 12:26 PM

There IT is right there.

[86Cane]

Posted by: Go Canes! | October 16, 2017 at 12:45 PM

I agree 100%. We are still 1-3 years away from being top 5 team or dominant in any way.

BUT we have enough talent now to be doing much better that we are.

[Dude on a Pale Horse]

^^^ That's why recruiting is an all season story. Was Larry Coker a great OC? Or did he have Shockey, Johnson, Portis, McGahee, Winslow, Gore, etc, etc, etc?

[TheeMackJones]

Miami's game versus mighty Carolina Blue, on October 28, is set for a High Noon kick-off. hUh. The game will be televised by either ABC,ESPN, ESPN-2 or ESPNU- I hope it's NOT abc. Their commercial breaks are TOO LONG and they have TOO MANY advertising schemes and all that! Heck, the entire first quarter televised on ESPN News. dUh.