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February 16, 2019

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86Cane

Sweet beef or sweet cheeks?

We got it all!

Harry Miller

Wouldn't be great to have a great baseball team and a great football team this year. Is it possible?

Go Canes!!

Clemson is sticking at No. 1.

A month removed from their decisive national championship victory over Alabama, the Tigers top the first 2019 rankings for the Football Power Index (FPI) -- ahead of the Crimson Tide, again.

The same was true last year, though 12 months ago Clemson being in the top spot was more controversial and was fueled by a roster stacked with defenders now headed to the NFL. This year, the Tigers boast the nation's best offense, led by quarterback sensation Trevor Lawrence.


It's not too difficult to understand why Trevor Lawrence and Clemson sit atop the FPI rankings. Harry How/Getty Images
While Clemson's 44-16 drubbing of the Tide might have college football fans recalibrating their expectations for Nick Saban's team, make no mistake -- it's still Clemson and Alabama and then everyone else. The difference in rating between No. 2-ranked Alabama (plus-27.6) and No. 3-ranked Georgia (plus-22.0) is the same as the Bulldogs' advantage over 10th-ranked Oregon (plus-16.4). Clemson ranks first in offense and second in defense; Alabama is vice versa.

Clemson is predicted to be better than every other team in the country, so it makes sense that we're forecasting the Tigers to have a dominating edge over every other team in the conference. The ACC is thin on upper-tier teams. In fact, after Clemson, it has basically ... nothing. Clemson is more than 17 points per game better than every other team in the ACC. Our conference and playoff projections won't be out for a couple of months, but it's safe to say that the Tigers' outlook for both of those will be awfully strong.

At this point, if you're wondering how FPI works, jump to the bottom for a quick explainer. And if you want to see last year's rankings at this time, you can check them out here -- where you'll find not only Clemson ahead of Alabama, but Notre Dame in the top five, a major surprise to most back then.

But let's shift back to 2019 now -- because there's another story of dominance brewing aside from the Tigers.

Superior SEC

This is something you won't see in any of the preseason polls. The SEC has placed 10 teams in FPI's preseason top 20.

Let that sink in for a minute.

The SEC has three of the top five teams in the country, five of the top 10 and half of the top 20!

The 10th-best SEC team (Missouri) is better than the second-best ACC team (Florida State) and the second-best Big 12 team (Texas).

The best division in football is the SEC West. The second-best division is the SEC East.

For the SEC -- or any conference -- this sort of depth is unprecedented. No conference in the past 15 years of FPI has had more than eight teams in the top 20 of the preseason rankings.

How can this happen? And can it be possibly true?

To the latter, sure.

One problem the polls -- and humans in general -- have is that they fail to divorce themselves from win-loss records. That's a problem when judging conferences, since the majority of every team's games are against other teams in its conference. That leads to guaranteed losses and the appearance that conferences are more similar than they actually are. Because FPI is judging teams' performances with their opponents' strength in mind, it has no problem believing that the SEC is that much better than everyone else.

And if we look at perhaps the most surprising inclusion -- Tennessee -- it's easy to see why the Volunteers have flown up our board. Tennessee is one of just three FBS schools to return 10 starters on offense (and it brings back 17 overall), including quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, who posted a solid QBR of 67.4 last season. Even though Tennessee struggled on offense overall last season, teams that bring back that much talent tend to undergo significant improvement from one year to the next. The Vols also rank highly in recruiting over the past four years.

While the overall strength of the SEC is outrageous, we'd be negligent to ignore the fact that in addition to Alabama and Georgia ranking No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, LSU has climbed to No. 4. That might not seem like a particularly far climb from the No. 6 spot where the Tigers finished in the AP poll, but FPI was relatively unimpressed with LSU last season and had the school all the way down at No. 17.

Still, coach Ed Orgeron has work to do if he wants to compete for an SEC title: FPI predicts the Tigers are about 6 points per game worse than the Crimson Tide. That's within striking distance for sure, but LSU isn't in that elite tier just yet.

Preseason FPI 1.0 Rankings, Top 25
RANK TEAM FPI OFFENSE RANK DEFENSE RANK SPECIAL TEAMS RANK
1 Clemson 29.0 1 2 21
2 Alabama 27.6 2 1 7
3 Georgia 22.0 4 7 24
4 LSU 21.5 8 5 20
5 Michigan 21.0 6 9 1
6 Oklahoma 19.3 3 29 30
7 Notre Dame 18.0 9 11 9
8 Florida 17.4 25 4 12
9 Auburn 16.6 28 6 6
10 Oregon 16.4 5 22 36
11 Texas A&M 15.9 7 31 3
12 Penn State 15.4 22 8 4
13 Ohio State 13.8 27 12 16
14 Michigan State 13.8 55 3 19
15 Tennessee 13.7 18 19 10
16 Mississippi State 13.5 23 14 35
17 Washington 13.3 17 21 14
18 Utah 12.4 38 13 13
19 South Carolina 12.1 15 32 26
20 Missouri 11.9 16 26 57
21 UCLA 11.7 14 28 68
22 Florida State 11.3 48 10 40
23 Wisconsin 10.9 19 35 39
24 Stanford 10.3 43 18 2
25 Iowa 10.3 39 20 11
Texas is not back

One of the teams expected to generate plenty of preseason buzz is Texas. But not from FPI.

The hype that the Longhorns have finally produced is, in our model's estimation, overstated. Tom Herman's team checks in at No. 26 in our rankings, just missing the cut for our accompanying table (you can find them in the full rankings at the end of this post).

Though Texas took strides last season, it had the benefit of starting 13 seniors and graduate students. Even with a cumulative top-five recruiting rank over the past four seasons, the fact that Texas is returning just eight starters is very likely to be a problem.

As a result, FPI believes Texas is not one of the top 25 teams in college football and will more closely resemble Iowa State or Baylor than Oklahoma in 2019.

Oregon among major risers

The Pac-12 is absent from the very top of FPI's rankings -- hardly a surprise to college football fans over the past couple of years -- but the conference's best chance might be a team that didn't even play in its championship game last season: Oregon. Thanks in part to Justin Herbert throwing a stiff-arm at the NFL draft, the Ducks flew up the FPI ranks from No. 31 at the end of 2018 to No. 10 now.

The aforementioned Volunteers had the biggest rank jump (plus-50) of any top-25 team, but close in pursuit were UCLA (plus-47) and Florida State (plus45).

The Bruins, in particular, appear primed for a major improvement in Chip Kelly's second season. Last season's 3-9 record comes with important context -- no FBS team had a more difficult strength of schedule than UCLA. When FPI judged the Bruins' performance in 2018, it kept the tough schedule in mind. Throw in 19 returning starters and it believes Kelly & Co. could shock the college football universe with a big jump this season.

Quarterback carousel

play
0:47
Cain: Fields' eligibility will turn waiver system 'into a joke'Will Cain says the NCAA must be consistent with exceptions after Justin Fields received a waiver making him eligible to play for Ohio State in 2019.
FPI places a special emphasis on the most important position in football, though it doesn't always understand the nuances of a team's situation or the latest on the NCAA's transfer situation (who does?).

The most notable example of this is Ohio State's Justin Fields. While Fields is a major acquisition who has been approved to play in 2019, FPI does not award the Buckeyes extra credit for securing the transfer QB because he didn't earn significant playing time at Georgia. Instead, the Buckeyes are treated as if they will have to play a completely green QB this season, which, technically, is true -- he's just a high-profile one. Austin Kendall (West Virginia) and Tate Martell (Miami, if declared eligible) are handled similarly by FPI.

This is in contrast to situations like Kelly Bryant at Missouri, for example. The Tigers receive some credit in FPI for bringing in a transfer QB with significant starting experience. Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma, Brandon Wimbush at UCF and Jacob Eason at Washington are all treated this way.

As for Florida State -- though Willie Taggart booted Deondre Francois off the team -- FPI counts James Blackman as a returning starting quarterback because he previously started for the Seminoles.

FPI refresher

FPI is our predictive rating and ranking system for college football. It's set to the scale of points per game above average, and it fuels all of our predictions and projections (out later this offseason) before and during the season.

You can read a full explanation of FPI's inner workings here or watch the accompanying video. But the quick version is that in the preseason, FPI ratings are determined through four factors:

Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)

Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall and on defense

Whether a team has a returning head coach

Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

play
5:02
Breaking down the Football Power IndexCollege football analyst Brad Edwards shows how ESPN uses four seasons of data to rank college football's best teams.
Preseason FPI 1.0 Rankings, FBS Teams
RANK TEAM FPI OFFENSE RANK DEFENSE RANK SPECIAL TEAMS RANK
26 Texas 9.8 24 36 22
27 USC 9.8 35 27 5
28 Minnesota 9.7 33 30 8
29 Iowa State 9.5 37 23 34
30 Kentucky 8.4 34 34 27
31 Baylor 8.3 11 62 47
32 Miami (FL) 8.2 61 15 48
33 Washington State 8.1 12 58 56
34 Arizona State 8.1 21 45 42
35 Nebraska 8.0 20 52 23
36 Virginia Tech 7.9 32 40 29
37 UCF 7.4 10 73 58
38 TCU 7.3 70 16 17
39 Oklahoma State 6.9 13 69 45
40 Cincinnati 6.2 51 33 69
41 Ole Miss 5.8 47 37 75
42 Boise State 5.6 41 41 65
43 Virginia 5.5 66 24 43
44 Brigham Young 5.2 50 43 32
45 North Carolina 5.2 30 65 18
46 Texas Tech 4.9 31 57 51
47 North Carolina State 4.5 52 44 50
48 Indiana 4.4 40 51 55
49 Pittsburgh 3.8 54 46 33
50 Syracuse 3.6 75 38 15
51 Vanderbilt 3.6 26 76 66
52 Arizona 3.5 29 68 79
53 Northwestern 2.9 89 25 25
54 Memphis 2.9 36 77 46
55 California 2.8 97 17 38
56 Duke 0.9 91 39 44
57 Kansas State 0.9 73 50 31
58 Arkansas 0.2 77 49 52
59 Western Michigan 0.2 46 78 104
60 Purdue 0.2 79 48 53
61 Maryland 0.0 68 70 28
62 Colorado 0.0 69 55 76
63 Appalachian State -0.4 62 59 115
64 West Virginia -0.5 82 47 73
65 Boston College -0.6 78 53 61
66 Wake Forest -0.8 56 79 62
67 Louisville -1.2 71 67 70
68 Army -1.4 42 92 91
69 Air Force -1.8 49 90 97
70 Marshall -1.9 90 56 41
71 Fresno State -2.4 108 42 63
72 Florida International -2.6 45 101 77
73 South Florida -2.7 59 89 71
74 San Diego State -3.0 94 61 49
75 Southern Miss -3.3 87 66 99
76 Georgia Southern -3.3 72 86 60
77 Temple -3.4 93 64 67
78 Illinois -4.1 81 82 59
79 Houston -4.2 44 111 87
80 Georgia Tech -4.9 76 91 64
81 Toledo -4.9 63 103 54
82 Utah State -4.9 105 54 96
83 Oregon State -4.9 58 104 74
84 North Texas -5.0 65 100 80
85 Troy -5.0 104 63 78
86 Florida Atlantic -5.2 67 97 95
87 Rutgers -5.3 95 80 37
88 Tulane -5.6 109 60 72
89 Hawaii -5.9 53 109 122
90 Arkansas State -6.1 101 75 89
91 Louisiana Tech -6.1 74 96 98
92 Ohio -6.1 60 108 84
93 Southern Methodist -6.2 102 71 106
94 Western Kentucky -6.2 86 88 114
95 Wyoming -7.6 116 72 85
96 Tulsa -8.0 106 81 103
97 Middle Tennessee -8.0 107 83 93
98 Northern Illinois -8.2 119 74 86
99 UAB -8.3 96 93 113
100 Louisiana-Lafayette -8.8 57 121 121
101 Nevada -9.0 113 84 81
102 Colorado State -9.3 80 113 109
103 Louisiana-Monroe -9.5 85 110 119
104 UNLV -9.5 64 120 126
105 Miami (OH) -10.6 112 94 90
106 Ball State -10.9 98 107 108
107 East Carolina -10.9 111 95 118
108 Buffalo -11.0 84 117 112
109 Kansas -11.2 121 87 94
110 Texas State -11.7 120 85 130
111 Navy -11.7 92 116 88
112 Eastern Michigan -11.7 118 99 82
113 Coastal Carolina -12.0 88 118 116
114 Georgia State -12.3 83 122 128
115 San Jose State -12.6 114 105 101
116 Kent State -13.2 110 112 120
117 Liberty -13.3 103 115 123
118 New Mexico -13.7 100 119 105
119 Central Michigan -13.9 124 98 107
120 Bowling Green -14.4 99 124 100
121 Charlotte -15.3 128 102 110
122 UTSA -15.5 127 106 92
123 Akron -16.7 126 114 102
124 New Mexico State -17.3 117 123 129
125 Massachusetts -18.6 122 125 124
126 South Alabama -19.5 123 127 117
127 Connecticut -20.0 115 130 127
128 Old Dominion -21.1 125 129 111
129 Rice -22.2 130 126 83
130 UTEP -22.2 129 128 125

nemo2002

4 me (again)

BigWindyCane

Another homerun post! Great photos Soup!

solarcane

Baseball season over yet?

roachcane77

Baseball season over yet?
Posted by: solarcane | February 16, 2019 at 01:31 PM

LOL! You and me BOTH Solar... Until we're in Omaha, what's the point?

FOOTBALL SEASON!!! Can't wait!!!

nemo2002

Did anyone see this yet?
Mark Walton, former Canes star now with the Cincinnati Bengals, arrested in Miami.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article226380530.html

Terrance Sullivan

Canes are rolling again tonight Daddy Wooooooo. Up 9-1.

Terrance Sullivan

Correction 7-1 Canes!

86Cane

Looks like DiMare gave the hitters permission to SWING the bats instead of letting them sit there on their shoulders?

86Cane

It took a little longer for Miami's offense to get going after a 19-run barrage on Opening Night, but one big swing by first baseman Alex Toral sparked another offensive explosion that led to another Hurricanes victory.

Miami (2-0) put up seven runs in two innings to pushed past Rutgers (0-2) and secure a series win on opening weekend, 7-1.

Terrance Sullivan

Let's Sweep Rutgers Baby!

BigWindyCane

I like the DiMare era so far! The Canes look great

Terrance Sullivan

2-0 Miami in the 5th inning.

Terrance Sullivan

3-0 Miami

CaneRock

Lady Canes beat #2 Louisville 79-73.

Terrance Sullivan

Canes Sweep Rutgers. Lady Canes upset #2 Louisville and now in 1st place in ACC. Hopefully our Men Basketball Team Can Beat BC and pull off the Trifecta. Go Canes!

BigWindyCane

Canes Sweep Rutgers. Lady Canes upset #2 Louisville and now in 1st place in ACC. Hopefully our Men Basketball Team Can Beat BC and pull off the Trifecta. Go Canes!

Posted by: Terrance Sullivan | February 17, 2019 at 05:41 PM

That would be great! It’s time for some more good news. It’s long overdue

Terrance Sullivan

Yesssss Yesssss Big Windy Cane.

thirstybuzzardcane

Good stuff Big T!!!!

86Cane

GET OUT THE BROOMS!

Miami sweeps Runtgers.

solarcane

Lady Canes best thing about Miami in awhile,
When was the last time a Canes team beat two top 4 teams in the same week?

Terrance Sullivan

Thanks TBC

Terrance Sullivan

Unfortunately our Men's Basketball Team couldn't complete the Trifecta. They lose to BC 64-57.

86Cane

Need new blood at UM Mens BB.

Larranaga is old and tired.

nemo2002

Need new blood at UM Mens BB.

Larranaga is old and tired.

Posted by: 86Cane | February 17, 2019 at 10:29 PM

Agreed!

thirstybuzzardcane

Need new blood at UM Mens BB.

Larranaga is old and tired.

Posted by: 86Cane | February 17, 2019 at 10:29 PM

Easy Cowboy! What if your wife said that about you?

orange 'n green in the vein

Easy to type but you don't even offer up a replacement name so even easier to laugh at and dismiss.

Besides, you're calling for firing him for roster mismanagement at this point for not knowing Dewan got hitched up with a scum bag thanks to lack of compliance oversight in the AD by Fake Lames and his cronies like GD. The Pimp's turning in one of the better coaching seasons of his time at UM this year and one of his better coaching jobs of his career considering how wafer thin he's got his bench with the former walk-on until this season playing eight man minutes out of no other choices left. If anybody loses their job it's the over-promoted peter principle ticket distributor pretending to 'direct' athletics at UM while they've circled all the way down the drain to irrelevance under the dumbass and the bots that back him.

nemo2002

"The bench is wafer thim." True! But whose fault is that?

The starting 5 ain't so good either. Indeed, our best player is a midget - who is pretty good for a player his size, but not nearly good enough to be a starter in the ACC.

The head coach earns over $1 million a year. But we appear to have bargain basement players (from here and abroad). Why?

We're one of the worst teams in the ACC. Compare that to the FSU men's basketball team (coached by UM's former coach) and UM's women's basketball team (which is a contending for the ACCC).

Coach L is a good guy. But no one cares any more about his "good old days" at Providence or George Mason. It's "put up or shut up" time. It's time to win; or it's time to be gone.

orange 'n green in the vein

"you're calling for firing him for roster mismanagement at this point for not knowing Dewan got hitched up with a scum bag thanks to lack of compliance oversight in the AD by Fake Lames and his cronies like GD.

Posted by: orange 'n green in the vein | February 18, 2019 at 07:16 AM"

Literally the point of the post nemo, smell the coffee already today.

orange 'n green in the vein

Izundu is not a midget either, missing on all cylinders.

Terrance Sullivan

LOL Nemo complaining about Coach L making over a million dollars Newsflash every Power 5 Basketball Head Coach makes over a Million Dollars. Talking about living in the past but you are living in the past talking about A Power 5 Head Coach making a Million Dollars that argument is as tired as Coach L talking about his time at George Mason. Do Better.

86Cane

Look, I like Larranaga and what he has done at Miami but I'll stick by old and tired. Kids don't want to play for Grandpa. Time to move on and bring in new energy and enthusiasm.

*(see Mark Richt vs Manny Diaz).

Go Canes!!

Larrañaga is two years younger than Coach K and only a year older than Roy Williams.

86Cane

Go Canes...Ok, you convinced me, Coach L is not old and tired, and we should keep him around as long as possible. Thanks for your service!

Go Canes!!

You literally just said no one wants to play for grandpa. Im just pointing out some of the most successful guys are his age.

Go Canes!!

The 2020 recruiting class has its leader. Love this kid already!

https://twitter.com/dbwilson2/status/1097537652138618880?s=12

86Cane

some of the most successful guys are his age.

Posted by: Go Canes!! | February 18, 2019 at 12:32 PM

Yes, I understand you: old guys rule. We all love old guys. You convinced me 100%...We should keep Coach L around as long as possible.

BigWindyCane

GC,
I love that quote from Cheney: “We’re going to make them pay. We’re going to make everybody pay for they’ve done, what they’ve said about UM."

It’s always good to see a Canes who plays with a big chip on his shoulder

NativeCane

Soup you have Ageism complicated by Gerontophobia....I recommend 2 hours in a wheelchair and a visit to the old folks home for your condition...
Hey, at least Larranaga aint a DIRTY old man!

Dem Canes!!!

Terrance Sullivan

Native with the post of the day.

Old Skool

Great post Native

86Cane

Two hours in a wheelchair will probably do me good. Especially after eating a heaping helping of bacon wrapped, jalepeno stuffed, grilled Venison! I know a guy who knows a guy.

I visit the "Old Folks Home" every time I am in Miami and visit my 93 year old aunt Dorthy. Trust me it ain't a pretty site.

I stick by my comment. I like Coach L and appreciate all he has done at Miami and I believe that he should do us a Richt and copy Marky-Marks lead. We have to do better than a mutant midget and The Bust from Down Under at guard.

Terrance Sullivan

86 with a Extra Strong Retort. Top Notch Top Notch.

Native

God bless your Aunt Dorothy, Bud...

Gonna have to meet you, Becky has your guava jam and I just picked up 3 large coolers of meat with several types of sausage and cubed steak, ground venison, and backstrap.....#carepackage

Go Canes!!

Been trying to buy tix for the Turd game. Website sucks and still not go j f me the purchase option.

Go Canes!!

Giving me

raizecane

Gonna have to meet you, Becky has your guava jam and I just picked up 3 large coolers of meat with several types of sausage and cubed steak, ground venison, and backstrap.....#carepackage

Posted by: Native | February 19, 2019 at 10:37 AM

Is this the same guava jam that was served a few years ago at the Miami vs USF tailgate?

Go Canes!!

After 45 minutes was able to buy six tickets by phone.

Total bush league job by the ticket office.

raizecane

After 45 minutes was able to buy six tickets by phone.

Total bush league job by the ticket office.

Posted by: Go Canes!! | February 19, 2019 at 12:19 PM
**************************************

I remember waiting hours to purchase ABBA tickets....LOl. At least you got them.

NativeCane

Affirmative Raize, Soup got the last three jars and Beckles is on injured reserve til after rotator cuff surgery....

Terrance Sullivan

I would be interested in the 50 Dollar ticket sections lol for the Florida Game in the Throwdown in OTown!

raizecane

Affirmative Raize, Soup got the last three jars and Beckles is on injured reserve til after rotator cuff surgery....

Posted by: NativeCane | February 19, 2019 at 12:52 PM

**********************************

Damn 86 and his assumption of guava jelly. That was damn good stuff.

raizecane

^^ consumption ^^

CGNC

Hello Canespace cadets! I am thinking of getting either Sling TV or Hulu Plus - tired of paying Comcast and getting nothing for it. For the same money, I can use Comcast for internet only and have all my channels. Any recommendations would be appreciated!

NativeCane

My Bull Gator high school buddy just called and said he bought 4 tickets for the battle in big O. Asked if me and Mrs Native want to double date.

Terrance Sullivan

CGNC Do It My Friend!

86Cane

Gonna have to meet you, Becky has your guava jam and I just picked up 3 large coolers of meat with several types of sausage and cubed steak, ground venison, and backstrap.....#carepackage

Posted by: Native | February 19, 2019 at 10:37 AM

Just say the word and my soul shall be healed!

86Cane

I would be interested in the 50 Dollar ticket sections lol for the Florida Game in the Throwdown in OTown!

Posted by: Terrance Sullivan | February 19, 2019 at 12:56 PM

Say what?

86Cane

Damn 86 and his assumption of guava jelly. That was damn good stuff.

Posted by: raizecane | February 19, 2019 at 12:57 PM

I may be enticed to share one of my three jars of guava jelly for the right incentives?

Terrance Sullivan

86 I would prefer the 50 dollar ticket joints but will pay a 100 dollars for a ticket but I am perfectly content to go to Twin Peaks on I-Drive and we watch the Game!

86Cane

Are there $50 tickets available?

86Cane

You have to be a season ticket holder to buy Pre-Sale tikets to the camping world kickoff game and well, you know, I gave mine up.

Terrance Sullivan

Yes Sir 86 I gave up mine as well. I was just saying if those 50 dollar tickets are still available we can scoop those up. My Guess is the 100. dollar tickets will be gone but if any are available we can jump on those. We are not paying above a 100 dollars per ticket because we can simply go to Twin Peaks and have a good time and call it a Day.

86Cane

NEW BLOG IS UP!

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