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September 15, 2021

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86Cane

Paging OGV, Paging OGV...

Have you ever employed the betting strategy of playing the genric over/under bet based on the highest and lowest projected O/U scores regardless of who is playing any given week?

You bet the OVER on the lowest score projected and the UNDER on the highest projected score because it would seem statistically that these would be the least likely NOT to come true?

For example this week the highest O/U is Tulane vs Ole Miss at 76 points. The lowest O/U is Utah vs San Diego ST at 44 points. I wonder if there is any research that shows if you picked the highest and lowest O/U and bet the contrary if that statistically would hold out over an entire season of college football?

Anyone with an opinion on football, betting, math or stats please share your thoughts?

86Cane

Tony Cane...where U at? Do you have an opinion on this?

86Cane

The next question would be point spreads. Bet the underdog on the BIGGEST point spread and the favorite on the lowest point spread. Example:

UConn favored over Army by 34 points is the biggest PS I found for this week's games. The O/U for the game is 48. So for UConn to win by 34 points and both teams only score 48 points total the score would have to be 41-7. Does that makes sense mathematically?

Others are:

* Georgia over SC by 31. (O/U 48)

* Iowa State over UNLV by 31. (O/U 52)

* TAMU over New Mexico by 29. (O/U 50)

* Clemson over GT by 28. (O/U 52)

* Michigan over Northern Ill by 27. (O/U 54)

Anyone with an opinion please speak up. AeroCane I know you do math for a living so interested to hear your take also.

86Cane

Can someone explain to me how we beat App State by 2 and are going to beat MSU by 7?

AeroCane

86
I used to look at these type of odds for jai alai when I used to live in Miami and go (what a blast)
Iโ€™ll look into it but I have a feeling by the time I get to it, Tony will have it completed and analyzed!

86Cane

Aero...even IF U don't have time to actually do the research just give us your general thoughts and did it work for U at Jai Alai?

86Cane

My general rationale is this:

If any odds are TOO extreme the probability of that happening are less likely than more likely correct?

orange 'n green in the vein

For example this week the highest O/U is Tulane vs Ole Miss at 76 points. The lowest O/U is Utah vs San Diego ST at 44 points. I wonder if there is any research that shows if you picked the highest and lowest O/U and bet the contrary if that statistically would hold out over an entire season of college football?

Anyone with an opinion on football, betting, math or stats please share your thoughts?

Posted by: 86Cane | September 15, 2021 at 03:23 PM

Since 2004, any total set at a range that includes 72.5 to 77 points hits on the under 51.2% of the time. Any total for a game in the 42.5 to 45 range in that same time frame goes over the total 49.1% of the time. Do with that what you will, you may need to take a longer odd total number to make that a value in play for you but I don't endorse and won't be playing either of those entries on the rotation.

AeroCane

My general rationale is this:

If any odds are TOO extreme the probability of that happening are less likely than more likely correct?

Posted by: 86Cane

I would say, yes. And yes it worked at jai alai - I won a lot of the time but not much money lol as I think others did the same kind of betting (it was easier as you had the programs right there in front of you to review and analyze past results)

AeroCane

OGV
Thatโ€™s so interesting; I wouldnโ€™t of thought that

orange 'n green in the vein

Oh and I guess I should specify, obviously those percentages only cover 2004-2020 totals, they are not updated for this season's results to date.

Harry Miller

Here is one for you. Back in about 1962 My friend Roger and I used to go to Jai Alai About once a week. Our favorite number was 28 the number of Fearless Freddie Lorenzen driver of the NASCAR's Car number 28 sponsored by Lafayette Ford.
On the last night of the Jali Alai season, the 11th and last game of the season. Roger noticed that the 2 8 exacta had never won the 11th game all season. The exacta ticket cost $3 we only had a dollar each. Saw someone we new and barrowed a dollar. Our reasoning, it had to win at least once that season and if it did we did not want to not have a bet in for that win. It was also the first time my wife had come with us and didn't care for Jali Alai at this point.

We made our bet , the game started and went on for ever with us having chances to win , but lost the point. This went on and on until just as we were about to leave the 8 won 4 points in a row and was leading when the 2 came up to play the 8. we needed the 2 to beat the 8 and the next player. The 2 beat both and won the game giving us the 2 8 exacta which paid $287. A pretty good payout in 1962. That was the last time I went to Jai Alai.
that season.

AeroCane

Great story Harry!

AeroCane

I think the point here is that in jai alai, you have a program with all past records by player and by number and you place your bet based on your own opinion; with the football o/u you have Vegas calculating these - they are usually spot on as OGV stated (about 50/50)

58 Straight

Do with that what you will, you may need to take a longer odd total number to make that a value in play for you but I don't endorse and won't be playing either of those entries on the rotation.

Posted by: orange 'n green in the vein | September 15, 2021 at 07:00 PM

Well I will let you know how it turns out this week because I bet both. These two games interest me as well:

* Georgia over SC by 31. (O/U 48)

* Michigan over Northern Ill by 27. (O/U 54)

Not sure that Georgia is 31 pys better than SC or that Michigan is 27.5 pts better than N Ill?

Lets say SC scores only a modest 10 pts. That means that Georgia would have to score 42 to cover and that equals 52 pts. The O/U is 48 pts.

58 Straight

Can someone explain to me how we beat App State by 2 and are going to beat MSU by 7?

Posted by: 86Cane | September 15, 2021 at 05:05 PM

I see nobody took a swing at this one?

Terrance Sullivan

Sadly I have Michigan State beating us by 11 points Daddio 31-20! I just threw up Smh.

58 Straight

TSully...good at bat. Sort of?

To lighten the mood we have the UM Men's basketball schedule for the 2021-22 season. I think we have around 8 players on the team but I could be wrong?

https://miamihurricanes.com/news/2021/09/16/mbb-release-acc-reveals-2021-22-mbb-league-schedule/

58 Straight

TSully...for a double bonus here is the article stating that UM has the #1 baseball recruiting class in the ACC this year:

https://miamihurricanes.com/news/2021/09/10/baseball-canes-recruiting-class-ranked-first-in-acc-by-baseball-america/

Now, about that coaching...

Terrance Sullivan

Appreciate U Soupster

HerbieIbis

Well, we shall see if a week makes difference on how we tackle on defense and if Lash has used all his vanilla up.
I say we will be slightly better but there are no miracles in store, unless lash opens the play book and decides to throw it way more than he runs it.
MSU 27-24.
It's a bitter pill to have to swallow in predicting that score but we can't run it very well and we can't get open enough to catch it and that's a shame with all the players we had coming back with game experience.
I like Diaz but he don't spark a fire in those players. He ain't going to get in no bodies grill. He needs a little fire and brimstone to his personality, instead of being a big brother.

orange 'n green in the vein

" Lock of the Week
Latest Odds: Miami (FL) Hurricanes -6

Michigan State at No. 24 Miami: There are times when you bet a game because your numbers tell you that the point spread or total is off. Then there are the times when you bet a game based on a well-established principle, like last week when the under in Air Force and Army was our Lock of the Week. And then there are the times when you're placing a bet because you've watched the two teams playing in the game, and the lines put out don't make a lick of sense.

This is the latter. I mean, I could be wrong. It's certainly happened before. That said, there's nothing I've seen from either one of these teams that suggests to me Miami should be this large a favorite. A Miami that deserves to be favored by nearly a touchdown against Michigan State breezes past Appalachian State last week and doesn't need a late field goal to avert disaster.

Meanwhile, Michigan State has looked solid on both sides of the ball through two weeks. The competition hasn't been fierce, but this is more about how solid the Spartans have looked. I don't think the market has caught on yet. Michigan State 28, Miami 27 | Michigan State (+6.5)"

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/the-six-pack-alabama-vs-florida-and-auburn-vs-penn-state-among-best-week-3-college-football-picks/

Uh-oh! That would cause the plane to be fueled for the cupcake date.

roachcane77

Manny better get our run defense ready. MSU has a Wake Forest transfer running back who is something like 4th in the nation right now. (MSU has a whole stable of running backs to choose from.)

If we defend the run like we did against UNC last year,(๐Ÿ˜–) this kid will enter NEXT week as the #1 running back in the nation.

C'mon boys! Let's STEP UP Saturday, and play like a Championship team! ๐Ÿ™Œ๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ™Œ๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ™Œ๐Ÿผ

86Cane

Uh-oh! That would cause the plane to be fueled for the cupcake date.

Posted by: orange 'n green in the vein | September 17, 2021 at 09:27 AM

U got that right!

I read the article and agree 100%. It is like whoever wrote that was reading my mind at the time.

Sarasota 'cane

Gameday!

Go โ€˜canes!

86Cane

NEW BLOG IS UP!

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